Missouri softball defeated Kansas City 7-0 Tuesday, pushing its record to 27-26 before it closes the regular season against No. 9/11 Tennessee over the weekend. The Tigers then begin SEC Tournament play May 5 or 6.
Under NCAA rules, 64 teams qualify for the NCAA Tournament. Thirty-one conferences receive automatic bids, awarded to their respective conference tournament champions. The remaining 33 spots are filled by at-large selections chosen by the Division I Softball Championship Subcommittee.
To be eligible for at-large consideration, a team must hold an overall won-loss record of .500 or better, a threshold that includes SEC Tournament games.
Missouri then has two paths to the NCAA Tournament. The first is finishing at or above .500 across all remaining games and making a strong enough case for one of the 33 at-large spots when the committee meets May 10. The second is winning the SEC Tournament and claiming the SEC's automatic bid.
If Missouri were to pick up a game against Tennessee over the weekend, it would need to win one game in the SEC Tournament to remain at .500. If it doesn’t win a game against Tennessee, it would need to win two games in the tournament to get to .500.
This is not a new situation for the Tigers. A year ago, Missouri was 42nd in RPI, but finished 25-31, just four games short of the .500 threshold. The Tigers played the 9th toughest strength of schedule in the nation, which played a significant role in the team's poor record.
The RPI, or Rating Percentage Index, is a formula that uses winning percentage (25%), strength of schedule (50%) and opponents’ strength of schedule (25%), to rank college teams.
While the RPI is important in the evaluation process, the tournament bracket each year is based on the judgment of each individual committee member to select the best at-large teams available and to create a nationally balanced championship.
“We had that opportunity to win a lot of games and we just fell short,” head coach Larissa Anderson said at the start of the season. “It's almost an eye-opening experience for everybody that you can't take any game for granted, that you have to go out and you have to try to win every single game.”
This season, Missouri ranks 41st in RPI and has faced a top-20 strength of schedule, putting it in a similar uphill battle. So why does Missouri keep playing a tough schedule that puts it in this position?
The answer, Anderson explains, is rooted in a scheduling reality that comes with being one of the northernmost programs in the SEC.
When the softball season begins in early February, it is often too cold in Columbia for the Tigers to host home games. That forces Missouri to travel south and play in invitationals against some of the best teams in the nation.
“We get invited to really competitive invitationals,” Anderson said. “People want Mizzou to play in their invitationals and it's hard to say no to a national tournament. But you have no idea who is even going to be in that tournament until the director of the tournament sends you back the schedule.”
Programs that play in warmer climates have a significant advantage, because they can host home invitationals early in the season and pick the teams they want to play before conference play. The Tigers do not have that luxury.
“I wish there was more opportunities for us to be able to host,” Anderson said. “That would be huge. When you look at a lot of our competition and the teams in our conference, they're hosting three, four times at home, picking and choosing who they get to play before they open SEC play. That would be ideal. I would love to be able to create a schedule that puts us in a situation where we are right now and play in the way we are right now, earlier on in March.”
The Tigers have played in 22 games against teams currently ranked in the top 25 in RPI. That number will increase after the series with Tennessee. The difficulty boosts the team’s RPI, but those metrics mean nothing if Missouri can’t reach .500.
“So, moving forward, maybe we're not going to play in some of these big time tournaments,” Anderson said. “We have to go to some other programs to be able to play a different schedule that's going to give them the exhilaration of hopeful victory.”
Missouri is the youngest team in the SEC. Of the nine starters who played in the most recent SEC series against Arkansas, six are either freshmen or sophomores. It takes time for young players to catch up to the speed of elite competition. That becomes harder with a tough early schedule.
"It's so tough because you have these pitchers that are All-Americans,” Anderson said. “It takes 15 months to develop a hitter and we're trying to do that in a very short window."
Three freshmen in particular – Abby Carr, Sidney Forrester and Addy Waits – have carried the Missouri offense down the stretch. Carr, a two-way player, leads the team in ERA, saves, home runs and RBI.
Forrester is the only other Missouri batter with 10 home runs, hitting the mark with a three-run blast Sunday that gave the Tigers the lead and eventual upset against No. 6 Arkansas. Waits leads the team in OBP and has provided consistent production in the leadoff spot for Missouri’s lineup.
Missouri opens the three-game series against No. 9/11 Tennessee at home this weekend. First pitch is 6 p.m. Thursday and will be streamed to SEC Network+.
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