Stocks rally on optimism over Iran war ceasefire, oil extends gains

Shortly after news of a US-Iran ceasefire, an Iranian group released a new Lego-style video lampooning President Donald Trump and declaring "Iran won," the latest in a wave of war-themed AI-generated propaganda flooding the internet.

Explosive Media, a group of pro-Iran creators that describes itself as independent but is widely suspected of government ties, has produced a series of such videos that have racked up millions of views during the conflict.

"The way to crush imperialism has been shown to the world. Trump surrendered. IRAN WON," read the caption of its video on X after the two-week ceasefire agreement was announced on Tuesday.

"TACO will always remain TACO," it added, referring to the acronym "Trump always chickens out."

The ceasefire -- already showing signs of strain -- followed a series of apocalyptic threats from Trump, including his warning that he would take Iran back into the "Stone Age."

With dramatic background music, the video depicts a Trump-like toy figure huddling with Arab leaders, hurling a chair at US military figures, while Iranian generals press a red button with the label "Back to the Stone Age," unleashing a torrent of destruction across the Middle East.

Another clip on X depicted Trump -- caricatured with an oversized yellow head and a flaming backside -- holding a sign that read: "VICTORY! I am a loser."

- 'Age of AI slop' -

Explosive Media, whose videos often tap into American popular culture, has portrayed Trump as old, isolated, and prone to childish tantrums, seemingly disconnected from reality.

Iranian state media and diplomatic accounts have leaned into their strategy, regularly posting similar so-called AI slop -- mass-produced content created by cheap artificial intelligence tools.

"Iran has crafted a wartime propaganda strategy tailored for the age of AI slop and algorithmic amplification," Joseph Bodnar, a senior research manager at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, told AFP.

"They are playing to the AI aesthetics and hyperbolic anti-imperialist narratives that draw attention, spark controversy and get rewarded by platforms."

In recent weeks, viral meme videos have depicted fictional Iranian military victories, world leaders in subservient scenarios -- dependent on Iranian leaders for oil -- and even the strategic Strait of Hormuz reimagined as a cartoonish toll booth.

"It is clear that Iran is putting out content that resonates," Bodnar said.

The English-language content of Explosive Media, which describes itself as an "Iranian Lego-style animation team," appears aimed at audiences outside Iran, where platforms like X have been blocked for years and are only accessible via VPN.

With Iranians facing what monitor Netblocks calls an "internet blackout," the ability of Explosive Media to produce and upload slick content has fueled suspicion of government ties.

The group rejected the claim on X as a "media distortion."

- Meme battlefield -

The White House's X account has meanwhile posted its own war-themed content --  combining battlefield footage with clips from films such as "Iron Man," "Gladiator" and "Top Gun."

The content highlights an internet meme battlefield that has blurred the line between propaganda and entertainment.

And while the Trump administration used AI-generated content in its social media strategy well before the war, the virality of Explosive Media's clips suggests it may be contending on the digital front, experts say.

The group is "beating the Trump administration at its own game," said Nina Jankowicz, chief executive of the American Sunlight Project.

"The immature humor, the polarizing rhetoric, the idea of 'owning' opponents, and the clicks-at-whatever-cost strategy that Trump and allies have employed is now being mobilized against it."

ac/pnb/des

Stocks rose Friday with investors still optimistic about the shaky ceasefire in the US-Iran war ahead of planned weekend talks, though oil prices extended gains over worries Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon could shatter the peace process.

Washington and Tehran's announcement Tuesday of a two-week truce that would see the Strait of Hormuz reopened, having been closed since the start of the war, sparked a wave of euphoria across markets.

But hopes for an end to the crisis have been hit by squabbles between the two sides over the agreement and the future of the key waterway, through which a fifth of the world's oil and gas passes.

US and Iranian delegations are due in Pakistan for peace talks, but they come as Tehran says Israel has already broken terms of the ceasefire by continuing to hit Lebanese targets, where Israel says Iran-backed Hezbollah is located.

The United States and Israel deny an end to attacks on Lebanon was in the deal.

Meanwhile, Trump warned on Thursday against Iran's plan to charge a toll for ships passing through Hormuz, saying on social media : "They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!"

In a second message just a few minutes later, he added that "very quickly, you'll see Oil start flowing, with or without the help of Iran."

He also said Tehran was "doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz".

Just 10 vessels have passed through the waterway since the Middle East war ceasefire took effect, according to maritime tracking data.

Only one of those tankers is not Iranian.

Equity markets, which have been hammered since the war broke out on February 28, extended the week's gains.

Tokyo, Hong Kong, Seoul, Shanghai and Taipei all rose at least one percent, while Singapore and Manila were also well up, though Sydney slipped.

The gains followed a second healthy run-up on Wall Street.

Oil prices climbed around one percent but sat just below $100 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate briefly jumped above the key level on Thursday.

Analysts said the equity gains were helped by news that Israel and Lebanon will hold talks next week in Washington. 

That comes after NBC reported that Trump had asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for a scale-back in strikes on its northern neighbour to ensure the success of negotiations with Iran.

With stocks rising, IG market analyst Fabien Yip said those "that suffered the deepest drawdowns during the conflict are likely candidates for the sharpest near-term recovery".

But she warned: "The ceasefire is temporary and the details remain sparse. Iran's 10-point proposal and Washington's stated positions retain substantial differences, and the Islamabad talks carry no guarantee of success.

"Even the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz -- subject to Iran's 'technical limitations' -- will take weeks, if not months, before shipping backlogs are cleared and supply chains normalise.

"Crude oil prices are therefore unlikely to revert to pre-war levels in the near term."

Investors are also keeping tabs on the release later Friday of US inflation data, which observers say could provide an idea about the impact of the surge in crude on consumers.

Prices are expected to have spiked 3.4 percent last month, from 2.4 percent in February, according to a Bloomberg survey.

In company news, shares in Japanese retail titan Fast Retailing soared 10 percent to a record high after it hiked its full-year operating profit outlook, helped by healthy demand for its Uniqlo brand in the United States and Europe.

- Key figures at around 0230 GMT -

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.8 percent at $98.67 a barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.6 percent at $96.51 a barrel

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 1.5 percent at 56,728.95 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 1.1 percent at 26,029.69

Shanghai - Composite: UP 1.0 percent at 4,006.68

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1692 from $1.1707 on Thursday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3428 from $1.3441

Dollar/yen: UP at 159.08 yen from 159.06 yen

Euro/pound: DOWN at 87.07 pence from 87.09 pence

New York - Dow Jones: UP 0.6 percent at 48,185.80 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 10,603.48 (close)

dan/tc

In a community centre in eastern China, Shu Fangqiang shrugged off his jacket and stepped onto a scale, one of hundreds of locals signing up for an unusual weight loss programme -- "Trade Fat for Beef".

The rules are straightforward: for every half kilogram he loses, Shu will receive the same weight in boneless beef, or 1.5 kilograms (3.3 pounds) of beef on the bone.

The programme is one of many springing up across China, backed by local authorities anxious to tackle rising obesity rates, which are fast becoming a pressing public health issue.

Participants who are already keen to lose weight say the initiative is an added bonus.

"Even without the beef, I wanted to lose weight for my health," said Shu, whose body mass index (BMI) of 30 is classified as obese.

More than a third of Chinese adults were overweight in 2022, and around 8.3 percent were obese, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), compared with the United States, where 72.4 percent of adults are overweight and 42 percent are obese.

However, the number of obese people in China has tripled between 2004 and 2018, according to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

If current trends continue, the share of overweight and obese Chinese adults could reach 70.5 percent by 2030, the National Health Commission (NHC) says, whose obesity criteria is stricter than the WHO's.

"This opportunity just came at the right time, so I signed up," Shu said.

Participants of the campaign in the city of Wuxi were weighed once in March, and will return in January 2027 for a second and final weigh-in .

They will then be rewarded with expensive cuts like oxtail if they lose more weight -- though the total amount of free meat available is capped at 10 kilograms (22 pounds).

Organisers say more than 1,000 people have registered since the Wuxi campaign started in March -- with thousands more turned away for not meeting local community residence requirements.

Queues for weigh-ins reached up to a dozen people at a time in both the men and women's sections, an AFP journalist saw.

At the front of the queues, participants stepped on weighing scales which displayed their height, weight and BMI.

Staff members then measured their waists, logged their data on a form and used an encouraging stamp to mark it and to cheer participants on.

An on-site doctor offered personalised medical advice.

- 'Flab for potatoes' -

Similar grassroots initiatives have also surfaced in other localities across the country, with many shared widely on social media.

In the southwestern province of Yunnan, slimmers can take part in the "Flab for Potatoes" programme and if they shrink their waistlines considerably, can upgrade to chicken.

Countrywide, popular supermarket chain Yonghui has invited customers to register their losses over 10 days by weighing themselves in-store.

They can then trade every 1.5 kilograms lost for half a kilogram of beef, crayfish or kiwi.

When AFP visited the Wuxi community centre, banners at the weigh-in urged participants to slim down steadily rather than quickly, and to aim for health over thinness.

Organisers also posted warnings against weight-loss drugs, self-induced vomiting and extreme fasting, with doctors on hand to offer guidance.

Participant Shu told AFP he wanted to lose 20 kilograms.

"Being obese affects your mental state, your work performance and your overall well-being," he said.

"Sometimes when I'm heavier, I don't sleep well at night."

As of 2021, there were 402 million overweight or obese adults over 25 in China -- the world's largest population, according to a study published in The Lancet medical journal.

Another study, published in The Lancet in 2021, attributed the problem to rapid urbanisation and a shift toward processed, high-sugar and high-fat foods, as well as increasingly sedentary lifestyles.

- 'Hard to resist' -

In Wuxi, 44-year-old Zheng Haihua said she was signing up to encourage her to "move more and eat less", and to commit to exercising. 

"The biggest challenge for me is... controlling my appetite, because when you see delicious food, it's hard to resist," Zheng laughed. 

Local physician Wu Changyan sympathised, adding "there's life pressure, and the convenience of modern life makes it easy to eat more and eat too much."

The NHC and other authorities have launched national initiatives in an effort to counter the trend, concerned about links with chronic disease and increased healthcare costs.  

Local efforts like the Wuxi one are "a fun way to get people motivated", Wu told AFP. 

But Li Sheyu, a clinical professor at Sichuan University's West China Hospital, said the campaigns might have limited impact. 

"I would not consider it a gamechanger in the big picture," he said, noting they were essentially just a traditional incentive method for weight loss. 

"But (they are) a good example of disseminating weight-loss ideas to the public."

em/reb/dhw/ane/cms

The Artemis II astronauts conducted a historic lunar flyby, gathered invaluable data and took in unprecedented Moon views, but one of the most crucial moments of their 10-day mission is still to come: Friday's splashdown.

Earlier this week, Americans Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover and Christina Koch along with Canadian Jeremy Hansen voyaged further from Earth than any human before, in a mission considered a key stepping stone towards eventual crewed lunar landings, and more.

They are scheduled to splash down in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of San Diego at 5:07 pm local time (0007 GMT), after which NASA and the military will help them get out of the capsule and fly them to a recovery ship.

Their journey has been rich in milestones and already resulted in stunning photographs that have captivated the imaginations of people on Earth.

But until the astronauts are home safe, it's too early to talk about success, NASA's Associate Administrator Amit Kshatriya told a briefing Thursday.

"When we can start celebrating is when we have a crew safely in the medbay of the ship," the high-ranking official said. "That's really when we can allow the emotions to take over, and, you know, start talking about success."

"We need to have the crew home before we do that."

- Vital heat shield -

The stakes are particularly high given concerns that arose during Artemis I, a 2022 uncrewed test flight to the Moon and back that saw the Orion heat shield erode in unexpected ways.

The heat shield is vital: During their reentry, the Orion spacecraft will face temperatures peaking around 5,000 degrees Fahrenheit (2,760 degrees Celsius), or half as hot as the surface of the Sun.

The astronauts will come hurtling back at a maximum velocity of 34,965 feet (10,657 meters) per second -- more than 30 times the speed of sound.

The heat shield is meant to slowly erode -- "ablate," as NASA puts it -- to protect the capsule, a process that during Artemis I was disrupted.

To minimize any risk to the crew, NASA has changed the reentry path they had used in that test mission, after determining it had played a role in the complications.

"We have high confidence in the system and the heat shield and the parachutes and the recovery systems we put together," Kshatriya said. "The engineering supports it, the Artemis I flight data supports it. All of our ground test supports it. Our analysis supports it."

"And tomorrow, the crew is going to put their lives behind that confidence."

Asked later about stress levels on the ground, NASA's associate administrator said "it's impossible to say you don't have any irrational fears left."

"But I would tell you, I don't have any rational fears about what's going to happen."

- Joy and anxiety -

NASA said loved ones of the astronauts will be watching the return from Houston's mission control.

Catherine Hansen, the wife of astronaut Jeremy, told AFP that "it has been a very emotional week."

"There's been a lot of happiness and excitement, a lot of joy," she said, but also "some anxiety and some wanting to get him home safely."

The second phase of the Artemis program has been described by NASA as a "test mission," including to verify the reliability of the Orion capsule, which before now had not carried humans.

It was also a voyage marked by historic achievements: Glover was the first person of color to fly around the Moon, Koch was the first woman, and Canadian Hansen the first non-American.

The crew have reported in vivid detail features of the lunar surface and later witnessed a solar eclipse as well as meteorite impacts.

NASA senior official Lakiesha Hawkins told a briefing this week that "when the mission goes well, it can look like flying to the Moon is easy."

"It certainly is not," she continued. "We can't forget that this is a test flight, and we are taking everything that we're learning forward to support the next mission."

Late Wednesday, astronaut Koch said that "every single thing we do" is with the next crew in mind.

And mission commander Wiseman reflected that "what we really hoped in our soul is that we could, for just a moment, have the world pause -- and remember that this is a beautiful planet in a very special place in our universe."

"We should all cherish what we have been gifted."

mdo/mjf/sla

The release of a new Michael Jackson biopic -- 16 years after his death -- highlights a robust franchise seemingly immune to the child sex abuse claims that still haunt the "King of Pop."

Film studio Lionsgate is banking on making $700 million in global box office receipts for the feature-length "Michael," which has its world premiere in Berlin on Friday. 

That figure would far surpass other productions in the same genre except for the Freddie Mercury-inspired "Bohemian Rhapsody," which took in $910 million. 

"Michael" is just the latest installment of a flourishing economic empire in Jackson's name. 

"MJ: The Musical" opened on Broadway in 2022 and has been staged in other countries, while the Cirque du Soleil production "Michael Jackson ONE" has been running in Las Vegas since 2013. 

Mychael Darklighter, a fan who lives in Australia, said he has twice seen the musical and recalled a consistently enthusiastic audience. 

"A crowd of all ages was going nuts for it each time I attended," he said. 

Last year, for the thirteenth time since his death in 2009, Jackson topped the Forbes list of deceased celebrities generating the most revenue.

And on Spotify, the artist has more monthly listeners than Beyonce, Post Malone, or Olivia Dean -- major figures in contemporary pop.

Vincent Amen, a former advisor to Jackson, said he believes the new film will boost that clout even further. 

"With the fan base, I think that they're putting themselves on the right path to commercial success," he said. 

- Baby over balcony -

Kimberly Krautter, of the public relations firm K-Factor Strategies, said that Jackson's business is more profitable after his death as it is "less fraught with controversy."

She pointed to several PR missteps Jackson made, including the moment in 2002 when he famously dangled his baby over a hotel balcony ledge in Berlin while waving to fans gathered below.

Amen agreed that the positive attention during the singer's career was regularly offset by contentious moments.

"Whatever publicity he had that was positive sometimes was countered with Michael's mistakes as negative publicity, and that made it very difficult to do business with him," he said.

Another example was in the 2003 documentary "Living with Michael Jackson," where the star explained that he still invited children to sleep in his bed, even though he was already the subject of child sexual abuse allegations.

- 'Destroy his character' -

Despite his 2005 acquittal in a criminal trial for child molestation, Jackson never managed to restore his image while alive. 

Other alleged victims filed civil lawsuits after his death and several proceedings are ongoing. The artist has never been convicted in criminal or civil court.

According to several media outlets, none of these episodes appear in the biopic which was produced under the supervision of the Jackson family.

"I would love that the film would tell the most human story about Michael Jackson possible," said Mark Anthony Neal, professor of African and African American Studies at Duke University.

"But I also realize that we're in a period of time where Hollywood does not deal with celebrities in that way," he added.

For Krautter, Jackson's image has been relatively spared because he died before the MeToo movement, which notably brought down singer R. Kelly over child sexual abuse.

Meanwhile, the fan Darklighter remains convinced that Jackson did nothing wrong. 

"I think his legacy is pretty secure, all things considered. No matter how much they try to destroy his character," he said. 

tu/vla/bjt/sla

Residents of a New Jersey city mobilized within days to kill a planned data center -- and now activists nationwide want to know how they did it.

Grassroots resistance to these computing fortresses is spreading across the United States, even as Big Tech pours hundreds of billions of dollars a year into AI infrastructure, pushing new projects into communities from coast to coast.

Forty miles (65 kilometers) from the New York skyline, rubble still litters a vacant lot in New Brunswick -- bordered by a railway line on one side and homes on the other.

This former automotive plant was where Amzak Capital Management had planned to build its complex. For now, it remains empty -- a trophy, activists say, for a community that fought back.

Residents learned of the project just nine days before a scheduled city council vote in mid-February.

They moved fast. A video went viral; flyers spread across the city, notably on the nearby campus of Rutgers University. More than 300 people showed up to proceedings held in a room with a seating capacity of barely 80.

Before the matter was even opened for public comment, the city council announced the data center component was being stripped from the redevelopment plan, recalled Ben Dziobek, founder of environmental advocacy group Climate Revolution Action Network.

"We've got tons of people reaching out to us from around the country asking us how we did it," said Charlie Kratovil, a Democratic mayoral candidate and member of environmental group Food & Water Action.

"It is definitely tapping into something that is bigger than any one of us."

New Brunswick Mayor James Cahill told AFP that while data centers have become critical to modern economies, "communities across the country are grappling with how to integrate them locally."

Key considerations, he said, include energy consumption, environmental impact, real estate footprint and benefit to local residents.

Those concerns resonated deeply in New Brunswick.

A 23-year-old resident who asked to be identified by the initials CJ noted that the data center would have been built in the middle of a working-class neighborhood, far from the businesses, hospitals, and university buildings of the more affluent city center.

For Brandon Guillebeaux, a longtime resident of this heavily Hispanic community, the trade-offs simply didn't add up.

"If it had brought thousands of jobs, it would have been worth it," he said. "But this was only going to be a few." Once operational, data centers typically employ very few workers on site.

- A precedent? -

A boom in generative AI has sent data center demand skyrocketing, with dozens of projects springing up across the United States.

The buildout comes at a cost: power-hungry facilities are straining local grids and driving up electricity bills, contributing to a nearly 17 percent jump in the average New Jersey household's energy costs last year.

Public sentiment is hardening. A recent Quinnipiac University poll found 65 percent of Americans oppose having a data center built in their community.

In early March, seven major AI sector players pledged to offset their electricity consumption by investing in new power generation -- though critics say voluntary commitments fall short of what is needed.

Other communities have pushed back, too. Last year, cities including Chandler, Arizona, and College Station, Texas, rejected proposed data centers -- though neither case drew the national attention that New Brunswick has.

"I really hope this sets a precedent," said CJ. "To show people that if they take action and publicly voice their opposition, they actually stand a chance" of winning.

That momentum is now reaching state capitals. In the coming weeks, Maine could become the first state to enact a moratorium on construction of these massive facilities -- which house millions of processors that form the backbone of the internet and AI.

In New Jersey -- the most densely populated state in the country -- numerous bills to regulate data centers are under consideration. Kratovil, the New Brunswick mayor, alongside prominent left-wing politicians including Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, is pushing for a more comprehensive statewide moratorium.

"We want feasibility studies and a pause, so we know the actual local impacts -- not just rushing ahead at full speed," said Dziobek.

tu-gc/arp/pnb/des

The Pentagon has failed to comply with a court order to restore press access, a federal judge ruled Thursday, rejecting new restrictions put in place by the department after its prior rules were deemed unconstitutional.

As part of an ongoing lawsuit brought by the New York Times, the court ruled in March that the Pentagon's changes last year to press access -- which saw credentials from a host of prominent outlets stripped -- violated the constitution.

However, the Pentagon responded to the March ruling with even tighter restrictions.

"The very next business day, the Department announced that it was immediately closing the 'Correspondents' Corridor' -- the area in the Pentagon from which journalists had worked for years," Judge Paul Friedman noted in his Thursday order.

The Pentagon also moved to fully bar journalists from entering the sprawling military headquarters without an official escort. Instead, a new workspace would be provided "in an annex facility."

For decades, vetted journalists from prominent outlets have been granted badges that allow them to freely move through parts of the Pentagon to engage with officials and public affairs staff.

The Defense Department has cited security risks for the tighter restrictions.

Friedman wrote Thursday that the tightened restrictions, "are not security measures or efforts to make good on prior commitments but rather transparent attempts to negate the impact of this Court's Order."

"The Department disagrees with the Court's ruling and intends to appeal," Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell wrote Thursday on X.

"The Department has at all times complied with the Court's Order -- it reinstated the PFACs of every journalist identified in the Order and issued a materially revised policy that addressed every concern the Court identified in its March 20 Opinion."

Friedman, in his latest order, said that the Defense Department must permit the Times' journalists and "all regulated parties" access to the Pentagon.

Pentagon press access has become a flashpoint in broader tensions between the media and the Trump administration, with officials frequently lashing out at coverage it views as displeasing.

Among other measures, last year the Defense Department forced eight prominent outlets to vacate their workspace to make room for new, mostly conservative outlets.

AFP, alongside the Times, Fox News, the AP, and others have refused to sign the new policy, which resulted in the stripping of their Pentagon credentials.

pnb/des

It was a war JD Vance never wanted. Now the US vice president has been tasked with ending it.

Vance heads to Pakistan this week with orders from President Donald Trump to turn the shaky Iran ceasefire into a lasting peace deal.

For the 41-year-old Vance, who has kept a notably low profile during the Middle East conflict, it will be one of the biggest moments of his career.

But the man widely regarded as a leading contender in the 2028 US presidential election will face huge challenges too when talks begin Saturday in Islamabad.

"I cannot think of a case where the vice president ran formal negotiations like this," Aaron Wolf Mannes, a lecturer at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy and an expert on the American vice presidency's role in foreign policy, told AFP.

"This is high risk, high reward."

Vance built his political brand as an avowed anti-interventionist who wanted to keep America out of any more foreign wars, like in Iraq where he served as a US Marine.

That has made for a difficult balancing act after Trump launched the Iran war on February 28.

Vance has publicly backed the conflict but has kept out of the limelight. When the ceasefire was announced, Vance happened to be far away in Hungary, supporting Prime Minister Viktor Orban's electoral campaign. 

The New York Times reported this week that in discussions behind closed doors in the weeks before the war, Vance argued against military action, saying it could cause regional chaos and split Trump's MAGA coalition.

But Vance now suddenly finds himself as Trump's diplomatic closer for an Iran deal.

"My key role was, I sat on the phone a lot," Vance told reporters as he left Hungary this week. "I answered a lot of phone calls. I made a lot of phone calls. And again, I'm happy about where we are."

Announcing the Islamabad talks this week, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Vance played a "very significant and a key role in this since the very beginning."

- Not always diplomatic -

Vance will be accompanied by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner as he becomes the first US vice president to visit Pakistan since Joe Biden in 2011.

The White House said Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Witkoff and Kushner "have always been collaborating on these issues."

"The President is optimistic that a deal can be reached that can lead to lasting peace in the Middle East," Principal Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said in a statement to AFP.

One theory is that the Iranians may view Vance as a more likely partner for diplomacy given his widely reported opposition to the war, and general doubts about US interventionism.

After Tehran expressed fury over Israel's continued attacks on Lebanese cities despite the ceasefire deal, Vance appeared to take a softer tone, saying there may have been a "legitimate misunderstanding" from Iran that Lebanon would be included. 

He hasn't always been so diplomatic. 

A long-term skeptic of support for Ukraine, Vance notoriously kicked off the Oval Office row between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky in February 2025.

And for the ambitious Vance, a soon-to-be father of four and Catholic convert, politics is always in the background.

Since Trump's return to power, Vance has been unusually prominent in a tough job that is simultaneously one heartbeat away from the presidency yet also, in the words of one former veep, "not worth a bucket of warm spit."

His crucial role in the Iran talks comes against the backdrop of a looming potential battle with Rubio to be the Republican heir to Trump in two years' time.

"If he can get something that papers it over without dealing with real issues, that's probably enough," said Mannes.

"But if nothing good comes of this, it raises questions about his competence, which is not going to help him electorally. And of course Rubio's right there as a potential rival for 2028."

dk-sct/des

The mustachioed brothers of "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" and Ryan Gosling's unassuming teacher-turned-astronaut in "Project Hail Mary" are civilization-saving heroes in their own worlds. But cinema owners here on Earth also feel pretty grateful to them.

The two films have drawn stellar audience figures in the last few weeks, pushing the US box office to its best start to the year since the Covid-19 pandemic.

The North American movie industry, which is in a constant battle with booming streaming services, surpassed $2 billion in receipts by the first week of April for the first time this decade, according to Box Office Mojo.

Although the figures do not yet match pre-Covid totals, cinema owners are "very excited," said Michael O'Leary, CEO of Cinema United, the world's largest trade organization for movie theaters.

The positive results -- up 23 percent year-on-year -- come as theater owners prepare to gather in Las Vegas for their annual CinemaCon meeting, where studios offer a sneak peak of their upcoming slates.

Those present will be hoping the sector can extend this growth after a difficult few years that have seen audiences dwindle in the face of the pandemic, strikes by actors and writers, and competition from streamers that have changed audience habits.

O'Leary said that along with big-budget crowd-pleasing US films, a growing suite of international fare is helping to sustain cinemas.

"It's not just movies from Hollywood that people are interested in," O'Leary told AFP in an interview.

"I think a lot of it is that people are drawn to compelling stories. It doesn't really matter where you live or where you're from, or even what language you speak... you want to have a compelling and interesting story."

O'Leary said there is also a generational element in the optimistic audience numbers.

"You've seen the... industry reinvest in itself, focus on creating even more grand and exciting experiences at the theater, and you're starting to see audiences come back, particularly younger audiences," he said.

"Gen Z is kind of leading the way. It's the fastest growing demographic of habitual moviegoers."

- Studio merger - 

A decade ago, filmgoers in the United States and Canada would frequently spend more than $11 billion annually at the cinema, but since the pandemic, the total take has not exceeded $9 billion.

This year's string of big releases has sparked hopes that there could be a return to such lofty numbers.

The opening weekend for Amazon MGM's "Project Hail Mary" logged a healthy $81 million, and was followed up by "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" with $131 million.

Upcoming releases expected to do well include Michael Jackson biopic "Michael," "The Devil Wears Prada 2," "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu," "Spider-Man: Brand New Day," "The Odyssey," and the third installment in the epic "Dune" series.

But there are clouds on the horizon for cinema owners, said O'Leary, with unease over Paramount's attempt to swallow Warner Bros.

"When you have consolidation of legacy studios, as we learned with Disney and Fox, the amount of movies produced goes down, prices go up, and we think that is bad for theaters," he said.

"It's bad for the industry, and it's certainly bad for movie fans."

O'Leary said his group had made representations to US regulators about the proposed mega-merger.

"We continue to oppose this transaction (and) encourage them to look closely at this merger, because the consequences of it are serious," he said.

CinemaCon will take place from April 13 to 16 in Las Vegas.

pr/hg/sst

Augusta National's firm, fast greens played havoc with some of the world's top golfers in Thursday's first round of the 90th Masters.

They are already talking about crusty conditions for the weekend and one of the hardest challenges in many years at the famed course.

"I think this could be the toughest Masters we've played in a while," said 2019 British Open winner Shane Lowry of Ireland. "Look at the forecast. They can do whatever they want with the golf course this weekend.

"Before the week is out, it's going to get very crusty around here."

There's no rain coming to soften up a layout where scores on Thursday averaged 74.648 strokes with 63 double bogeys or worse as green speeds tested veterans and rookies alike.

"It's like a Saturday firm I would say for a Thursday, which is not really normal," Australian Min Woo Lee said.

American Patrick Reed broke a tee at 17 trying to fix a ball mark in the hard putting surface.

"It definitely has the teeth in it to make it really tough," said Reed, the 2018 Masters champion.

"The greens are already getting firm, crusty, and bouncy. It's going to get fast, and it's going to take a lot of patience."

England's Justin Rose, three off the lead after an opening 70, says even fans of severe challenges might have their limits pushed this week.

"Every player would say they would like it firm and fast," he said. "But I think there's a boundary to that."

Rose, who lost a playoff to Rory McIlroy in last year's Masters, is in a wait-until-Sunday mode.

"I think the lead at this point is irrelevant," Rose said. "There's so much golf ahead that there's no point in even looking at who is doing what at this moment in time.

"It's just about executing your strategy, feeling like you can run the clock down, playing as well as you can, and then towards the end you've got to figure out if you need to change your strategy. But until the final few holes really it's just about doing as good as can you do."

World number one Scottie Scheffler was on 70 as well.

"I did a good job of staying patient and playing smart. Overall, I'm pretty proud of the effort," Scheffler said. "I feel like I'm in a good spot."

Scheffler figures Augusta National officials can make the course as difficult as they want.

"We'll see how much they want to push it in the next few days," Scheffler said. "So much of this course is wait and see, so we'll see."

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