Poll: Trump’s approval rating falls further among Arizonans

Noble Predictive Insights released a poll showing that the president has a net approval rating of -19 among Arizona registered voters, meaning 39% approve of Trump’s job performance while 58% disapprove.

Trump’s approval rating has declined by 6 points since May, when his net approval rating was -13.  

NPI CEO Mike Noble said Trump’s approval rating is at an all-time low at any point in time from his first or second administration, including after the Jan. 6, 2021, riots at the Capitol in Washington, D.C.

Trump’s approval rating has gone down because of “cost-of-living issues,” Noble said, pointing to inflation and the costs of housing and gas.

He added that the Iran conflict is “deeply unpopular with the Arizona electorate.”

Noble told The Center Square that there are many reasons Arizona voters voted for Trump in 2024, such as staying out of foreign wars and improving the economy.

The president has “not done a good job of holding up” to these campaign goals, Noble said.

The majority of Arizona registered voters disapproved of how Trump is handling the Iran conflict and the economy, according to the poll.

Even though Trump’s approval rating is at an all-time low, it is still not as low as former President Joe Biden’s net approval rating among Arizonans, which hit -24 twice in July 2022 and April 2023.

“Up to this point, Trump has proven his support has a higher floor but a lower ceiling than Biden,” said Noble. “We’ll see if that holds up if the Iran [conflict], the economy and other tripping points continue to plague the administration.”

Noble told The Center Square that Trump’s low approval rating is “creating a toxic environment” for Republicans in down-ballot races in Arizona, which has historically been a red state.

Attorney General Kris Mayes, a Democrat, is currently beating Senate President Warren Petersen, R-Surprise, in the attorney general’s race, according to an NPI poll.

Another Democrat, Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, is ahead of state Rep. Alex Kolodin, R-Fountain Hills, in the secretary of state’s race, the poll noted.

Republican Kimberly Yee, who's currently the state treasurer, is on her way to defeat Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz in the superintendent for public instruction race, the NPI poll shows.

In Arizona, the three political candidates with the highest favorability ratings among registered voters are Democrats: U.S. Sens. Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego and Gov. Katie Hobbs.

Kelly’s net favorability rating is 17%, while Hobbs’ and Gallego’s are 13% and 12%, respectively.  

“The personal popularity of Kelly, Hobbs and Gallego comes from more than a party label," Noble said. “A generic Democrat can’t expect to replicate it just with a ‘D’ next to their name."

The Republicans with the highest favorability ratings are  U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio; U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Gilbert, and Vice President JD Vance.

Rubio’s net favorability rating is at 2%, while Biggs is at 0%. Vance’s net favorability rating came in at -5%.

Trump’s net favorability rating is -13%.

Despite the president's unpopularity among registered Arizona voters, the poll found they still think the state is headed in the right direction.

Fifty-two percent of voters think Arizona is on the right path, compared to 48% who think it is going in the wrong direction.

“With Democrats in the highest state offices at home and Republicans in control of the government in Washington, it’s no wonder voters can’t agree,” Noble explained. “Everyone has a little to like and a lot to complain about.”

NPI’s poll on Trump's approval rating had a margin of error of +/- 3.23%.