German investor morale lowest in over 3 years on Iran war fallout

Two commuter trains collided head-on near the Danish capital early Thursday leaving five critically hurt and 12 others with lesser injuries, emergency services said.

Police were unable to provide any information about the cause of the accident, which occurred near a level crossing in a rural wooded area about 40 kilometres (25 miles) north of Copenhagen, near the town of Hillerod.

"A total of 17 people were injured. Of them, five were deemed to be in critical condition at the scene," Anders Damm-Hejmdal, chief physician at Copenhagen's emergency medical responders, told reporters. 

Police said they were alerted to the crash at 6:29 am (0429 GMT).

The yellow and grey locomotives of the two trains could be seen smashed and buckled in, the glass from their windshields and windows shattered. Both trains and their carriages remained upright on the rails.

Thirty-eight people were on the two trains.

A large number of ambulances and police cars were dispatched and all the passengers were evacuated and the injured transported to hospitals.

The mayor of Gribskov municipality, Trine Egetved, said on Facebook that some of the injured were flown to hospital on helicopter.

- 'People thrown around' -

Emergency crews wound up their rescue efforts around three hours after the accident, as investigators continued their work at the scene.

"We can't provide any details for now about the cause," police official Morten Kaare Pedersen told reporters.

"We are in the process of gathering the necessary information about the course of events. So there are, and will continue to be for quite some time, a lot of investigations underway."

Damm-Hejmdal said the number of critically injured "could change" over the course of the day.

The number "is obviously dynamic and could change. But that is the status as of now," he told a press conference almost four hours after the accident.

"Initially it is difficult to get an overview of the exact injuries," he said.

"You can imagine two trains colliding. That causes a lot of different injuries, people get thrown around."

Egetved said she had been "deeply upset and shocked".

"This train is used by many residents of Gribskov, workers and students," she said.

Denmark prides itself on its safety record, but a 2019 train crash left eight dead and 16 injured.

In August last year, an express train hit a farm truck on a crossing killing one person and injuring 27.

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A US naval blockade of Iranian ports is likely to squeeze Iran's oil output in the coming weeks but claims it will throw the Islamic republic into economic free fall remain premature, analysts say.

After weeks of bombing and counter-strikes, focus has shifted to the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, which ordinarily carries around a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas.

In response to Iran's blockade of the strait since the start of the Middle East war, the US imposed a counter-blockade of the Islamic republic's ports, a push to force its leaders into a compromise in peace talks.

That bid, however, looks set to fail, at least in the short term.

"If the blockade lasts for more than two or three months, it can cause more damage" to Iran, economic analyst and professor at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran Saeed Laylaz told AFP.

"If Iran suffers any damage, the damage to the countries in the southern Persian Gulf will definitely be greater," he added. 

There's a limit on how long Iran can bide its time, however.

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management said Iran "was expected to run out of storage capacity within approximately one month, but it may already be forced to shut in part of its oil production within a couple of weeks".

- 'Collapsing financially'? -

Trump said Tuesday that Iran was "collapsing financially" under the blockade imposed by the US Navy on April 12, claiming that the country was "starving for cash". 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the blockade meant storage at Iran's Kharg Island, the main export terminal through which most of the country's crude is shipped, "will be full and the fragile Iranian oil wells will be shut in".

Jamie Ingram, managing editor of Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), told AFP it was likely the timeline for Iran to hit its oil storage limits would be measured in "weeks rather than days".

He added it was likely that "Iran will slightly reduce production before getting to the stage where storage constraints start to bite".

According to analysis by oil expert Homayoun Falakshahi shared by energy intelligence firm Kpler, Iran's crude production has already slowed since the start of the war. 

Output fell by around 200,000 barrels per day in March to 3.68 million bpd and is expected to drop a further 420,000 bpd in April to about 3.43 million bpd, reflecting "the broader impact of export disruptions and refining constraints linked to the ongoing conflict," Falakshahi said.

But Laylaz in Tehran said beyond the psychological effect of the blockade, the "real material effect has been small so far".

Ingram said Kharg Island "shouldn't be a particular bottleneck," for Iran. 

"This is the final storage facility used before oil is exported and Iran can divert crude oil to other facilities rather than straight to Kharg," he said.

- 'Mutually assured disruption' -

The MEES expert also said Iran's dependency on oil exports via Hormuz had "deepened due to the damage caused by US and Israeli strikes to other sections of the Iranian economy".

"But Iran has also proven its ability to withstand huge oil-revenue declines during previous rounds of sanctions. I would not underestimate the regime's resilience in this regard," he added.

As the initial two-week truce between Iran and the US was set to expire Trump had said Tuesday he would maintain the ceasefire to allow more time for peace talks.

Iran said it welcomed the efforts by mediator Pakistan but made no other comment on Trump's announcement, while vowing not to reopen Hormuz so long as the US blockade remains in place.

"It will take a long time before such economic pain forces Iran to compromise," Ingram said, explaining it is "more likely economic disruption... pushes China into exerting more pressure on Iran to negotiate". 

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said "Iran's economy was battered before the war, is contending with added strains caused during it, and now faces the combination of sanctions, seizures and potential strikes".

"Iran's leadership has previously shown a high threshold for pain even if the pressure on ordinary Iranians increases. It also likely calculates that its own efforts to subdue traffic through Hormuz act as a sort of mutually assured disruption," he added.

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Shares in EssilorLuxottica, the world's top maker of eyeglasses, slid on Thursday as analysts said investors have turned wary of AI glasses.

The French-Italian company has pushed hard into wearable tech and has a tie-up with Meta for its Ray-Ban AI glasses.

The nearly five percent drop in morning trading in Paris, whose overall market was up 0.1 percent, came despite the company posting Wednesday evening a 4.1 percent increase in first quarter sales to 7.1 billion euros ($8.3 billion).

EssilorLuxottica did not provide a breakdown of AI glasses, but said they supported growth and the launch of Ray-Ban Meta’s new optical-first styles had been a success.

EssilorLuxottica's foray into "AI glasses is now seen as a source of risk, after initially being viewed as a major opportunity," analysts at Oddo BHF said in a note.

"Following very satisfactory performance in previous quarters, the stock is going through a tougher patch in 2026," they added. 

While first quarter sales met analyst expectations, and represented a gain of 10.8 percent on an organic basis -- that is stripping out the effects of changes in exchange rates and in business operations.

But "given the macroeconomic uncertainties, we are cautiously lowering our expectations for organic growth in 2026 from 10 to nine percent," said analysts at Jefferies.

EssilorLuxottica does not provide detailed sales and earnings guidance.

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German airline giant Lufthansa Thursday lost a legal battle over a six-billion-euro ($7-billion) pandemic-era government bailout when the EU's top court ruled Brussels mishandled its approval of the cash injection.

Europe's biggest airline group by revenues received the bailout in 2020 to save it from collapse as government lockdowns to prevent the spread of Covid-19 brought air travel to a halt. 

The European Commission approved the move, but Irish no-frills carrier Ryanair and German airline Condor brought legal action, claiming this broke state aid rules.

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) on Thursday dismissed a challenge from Lufthansa, and upheld an earlier ruling by a lower tribunal which had overturned the approval by the commission, the EU executive.

"The Court of Justice dismisses Lufthansa's appeal and thus upholds the General Court's ruling to annul the decision by which the Commission had approved the recapitalisation of Lufthansa," it said in a statement.

The lower court had correctly concluded that the commission had "infringed" emergency rules brought in to allow governments to support the economy during times of crisis, it said.

Lufthansa, which also operates Eurowings, Austrian, Swiss and Brussels Airlines and has acquired a stake in Italy's ITA, has paid back the bailout cash, and it was not clear what impact the court defeat would have. 

Lufthansa said in a statement that it took note of the judgement.

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Business activity in the eurozone contracted for the first time in 16 months in April, as the war in the Middle East drove energy prices up and disrupted global supply chains, a closely watched survey showed Thursday.

The Flash Eurozone purchasing managers' index (PMI) published by S&P Global, an important gauge of the overall health of the economy, registered a figure of 48.6 this month, down from 50.7 in March.

A reading above 50 indicates growth, while a figure below 50 shows contraction.

"The eurozone is facing deepening economic woes from the war in the Middle East, presenting a major headache for policymakers," said S&P chief business economist Chris Williamson. 

"The conflict has pushed the economy into decline in April, while driving inflation sharply higher."

The decline in output was driven by the service sector, which recorded the steepest pace of decline in more than five years. 

Manufacturing production instead continued to rise, expanding at the fastest rate since August. 

But this was partially down to customers placing extra orders to build stocks and secure purchases ahead of possible future price rises and supply shortages, the survey said. 

The fall in business activity was broad-based across the eurozone, with both Germany and France -- the 20-country single currency area's two biggest economies -- posting contractions. 

"In this environment, the ECB once again has the unenviable task of deciding whether to raise interest rates in the face of the worrying inflation picture, or whether this price spike will prove temporary and its focus should instead be on the need to prevent the economy sliding into a deeper downturn," said Williamson.

Analysts have raised their bets on the Frankfurt-based European Central Bank (ECB) hiking interest rates as soon as this month to keep inflation in check.

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The latest developments in the Middle East war:

- Iran gets first Hormuz toll -

A senior Iranian parliament official said on Thursday that Tehran has received the first revenue from tolls it imposed on the strategic Strait of Hormuz in its war with the United States and Israel. 

"The first revenue received from the Strait of Hormuz tolls was deposited into the Central Bank account," said deputy speaker of parliament Hamidreza Hajibabaei, according to Tasnim news agency. 

- Clearing Hormuz may take 6 months -

A Pentagon assessment said it could take six months to completely clear the Strait of Hormuz of Iranian-laid mines, which could keep oil prices high, the Washington Post reported on Wednesday.

Iran has all but blocked the vital waterway since the start of a war with the United States and Israel, sharply driving up oil and gas prices and disrupting the global economy.

- Hormuz standoff -

Iran vowed it would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz as long as the United States continues to blockade its ports.

"A complete ceasefire only has meaning if it is not violated through a naval blockade," said Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led Tehran's delegation in the first round of talks in Islamabad.

"Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is not possible amid a blatant violation of the ceasefire."

- Iran execution -

Iran hanged a man after he was convicted of membership in a banned opposition group and alleged collaboration with Israel. 

"Sultan-Ali Shirzadi-Fakhr was hanged early this morning for membership in the terrorist group" of the People's Mujahedin Organisation (MEK) and "collaboration with the Israeli regime's spy service," the judiciary's Mizan Online website reported.

- Lebanon-Israel meeting -

Israel and Lebanon hold a new round of talks in Washington on Thursday, during which Beirut plans to request a one-month extension of a ceasefire due to expire within days.

Israel stated ahead of the talks that it has no "serious disagreements" with Lebanon, calling on it to "work together" against the pro-Iran Hezbollah, which is notably absent from and opposed to the negotiations. 

- US turns back 31 vessels -

US Central Command (CENTCOM) said late Wednesday that it had "directed 31 vessels to turn around or return to port" as part of its own "blockade against Iran".

It said on X "the majority of vessels have complied with US directions" adding that "most vessels turned around have been oil tankers".

- Oil jumps before easing -

Oil prices jumped four percent before easing Thursday after Iran vowed not to reopen the Strait of Hormuz so long as a US blockade remained in place.

At around 0025 GMT, the benchmark US oil contract West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 4.1 percent to $96.73 per barrel. International oil benchmark Brent North Sea crude rose 3.6 percent to $105.63. 

Asian stocks mostly fell however, with Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore and Wellington all down.

- Israel strikes journalists in Lebanon -

Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon, where a ceasefire is officially in place, killed veteran Al-Akhbar newspaper correspondent Amal Khalil and wounded freelance journalist Zeinab Faraj.

A Lebanese Red Cross official told AFP Faraj was rescued but Khalil died under rubble.

Lebanon's Information Minister Paul Morcos called the targeting of journalists "a grave crime and a blatant violation of international humanitarian law".

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An envoy to US President Donald Trump has asked world football's governing body FIFA to replace Iran with Italy at the World Cup, according to the Financial Times.

US special envoy Paolo Zampolli told the FT it would be a "dream" to see four-time World Cup winners Italy at the finals in the United States, Mexico and Canada despite the fact they lost in a qualification playoff last month.

The suggestion was an effort to repair ties between Trump and Giorgia Meloni after the Italian prime minister fell out with the president after criticising his attack on Pope Leo XIV over the Iran war, the newspaper reported.

"I confirm I have suggested to Trump and (FIFA President Gianni) Infantino that Italy replace Iran at the World Cup. I'm an Italian native and it would be a dream to see the Azzurri at a US-hosted tournament. With four titles, they have the pedigree to justify inclusion," Zampolli told the FT.

Italy missed out on the World Cup for the third successive time after losing a penalty shootout to Bosnia and Herzegovina in their qualifying playoff final.

Iran's participation in the World Cup has been thrown into doubt by the war with the US and Israel that broke out on February 28.

The Iranian football federation (FFIRI) had said in April it was "negotiating" with FIFA to relocate the country's World Cup matches from the United States to Mexico.

But Infantino told AFP last month, while attending Iran's friendly against Costa Rica in Turkey, that Iran will be at the World Cup and that they will play "where they are supposed to be, according to the draw".

Zampolli is an Italian-American socialite, businessman and former modelling agent who claims to have introduced Trump to his current wife Melania Trump.

gj/pi

Sales of new cars jumped last month in the European Union as consumers turned to electric vehicles as petrol prices soared due to the war in the Middle East, data showed Thursday.

Overall sales rose 12.5 percent in March from the same month last year to 1.16 million vehicles, according to registration data from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA).

That jump helped the market attain a four percent rise for the first quarter overall following declines in January and February.

Sales of fully electric vehicles soared by 49 percent, with plug-in hybrids also jumping 20 percent.

Over the first quarter hybrids were the top choice of European consumers, accounting for 37 percent of overall sales.

Plug-in hybrids accounted for another 10 percent of market share.

The market share of simple petrol motor vehicles slumped to 23 percent in the quarter, down from 28 percent a year earlier.

Fully electric vehicles accounted for just over 19 percent of overall sales.

The ACEA noted the sales performance of electric vehicles varied strongly by country, with Italy, France and Germany posting strong gains.

Petrol prices spiked throughout Europe after the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, resulting in a near block on oil exports from the Gulf and leading Iran to retaliate by attacking energy facilities throughout the region. 

Meanwhile, sales in Belgium and the Netherlands fell.

The Volkswagen group kept its top spot in the EU market in the first quarter, with its market share dipping to 26.4 percent despite its sales edging higher.

That was primarily due to Stellantis, whose Fiat, Citroen and Opel brands saw sales surge and boost the group's market share.

Another major European car manufacturer, Renault, saw sales slide in the first due to transportation problems affecting its low-cost Dacia brand.

Sales of Teslas jumped nearly 60 percent from the first quarter of last year when Elon Musk's involvement in the Trump administration turned off European consumers.

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South Korea pushed back on Thursday against criticism of its business environment by US lawmakers, as a rare spat deepens over Seoul's investigation into online retail company Coupang.

US-listed Coupang's South Korean arm operates the country's most popular shopping platform.

But it has faced a backlash since a massive data leak last year exposed the details of over 30 million customers.

South Korean authorities are investigating Coupang for potential negligence and regulatory breaches, and statements from Seoul and Washington this week revealed cracks in the relationship between the longtime allies.

On Thursday, South Korea's foreign ministry said the Coupang probe was "being conducted in strict accordance with our domestic laws and due process", adding that it was not discriminating against American firms.

The statement followed a letter by Republican lawmakers to the South Korean ambassador in Washington, in which they called for an end to "discriminatory regulatory actions" against US businesses.

The letter claimed that South Korea "leveraged a low-sensitivity data leak... as a pretext to launch a whole-of-government assault on Coupang".

It accused Seoul of "indiscriminate raids... punishing fines, unprecedented tax audits, and pressure on public pension funds to divest their Coupang holdings".

The evident strain is remarkable given that South Korea and the United States are major economic and defence partners, with Washington stationing 28,500 troops there to help guard against North Korea.

On Wednesday, Seoul said talks with Washington over a security agreement should proceed separately from issues related to Coupang.

The unusual statement came after multiple South Korean media outlets reported that the United States had threatened to halt high-level security talks unless Seoul guaranteed the legal safety of Coupang Chairman Kim Bom, an American citizen also known as Kim Bom-suk.

The reports said that US negotiators had asked South Korea to lift a travel ban on Kim and ensure that he would not face arrest or detention when visiting the country.

The talks carry high stakes for South Korea, as they would touch on its plan to build nuclear-powered submarines as a deterrent against the North.

Coupang declined to confirm Kim's current whereabouts. South Korea has not confirmed that Washington made any such demands regarding Kim or linked them to the security talks.

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A Pentagon assessment said it could take six months to completely clear the Strait of Hormuz of Iranian-laid mines, which could keep oil prices high, the Washington Post reported on Wednesday.

Iran has all but blocked the vital waterway since the start of a war with the United States and Israel, sharply driving up oil and gas prices and disrupting the global economy.

The strait -- through which one-fifth of the world's oil and gas passes in peacetime -- has remained largely closed during a shaky ceasefire, with the US imposing its own blockade.

Even if hostilities end and the blockade lifts, it could take months to clear the waterway of mines, according to a Pentagon assessment, the Washington Post reported citing officials close to the discussion.

The assessment added that it was unlikely such an operation would begin before the end of the war.

The six-month estimate was shared with members of the House Armed Services Committee during a classified briefing, the Post reported.

Lawmakers were told that Iran may have placed 20 or more mines in and around the strait, some floated remotely using GPS technology which makes them harder to detect, according to the report.

AFP has contacted the Department of Defense for comment.

Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell told the Washington Post that its information was "inaccurate."

Iran's Revolutionary Guards have warned of a "danger zone" covering 1,400 square kilometres -– 14 times the size of Paris –- where mines may be present.

Iran's parliament speaker said the Islamic republic would not reopen the strait as long as the US naval blockade remained.

A spokesman for German transportation giant Hapag-Lloyd cautioned last week that shippers needed details on viable routes as they remain fearful of mines.

When the Hormuz strait briefly reopened at the start of the ceasefire this month, only a few ships trickled through amid fears of attacks or mines.

Earlier in April, the US Navy said its ships transited the waterway to begin removing the mines, but that claim was denied by Iran's Revolutionary Guard, which threatened any military vessels attempting to cross the channel.

London hosted talks with military planners from over 30 countries starting Wednesday on a UK and France-led multinational mission to protect navigation in the Strait of Hormuz once hostilities end.

The "defensive" coalition is set to discuss plans to reopen the strait and conduct mine clearance operations.

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