German fertiliser makers and farmers struggle with Iran war fallout

Across Bangkok, aromas of garlic, chilli and grilled meat drift from roadside stalls and carts, but tighter controls on vendors threaten livelihoods and the street food culture that defines the Thai capital.

Convenient, full of flavour and popular among locals and tourists alike, Bangkok's street food is one of the city's signatures -- where sizzling woks and smoky charcoal grills turn boulevards and sidewalks into open-air kitchens from morning until late at night.

But many street sellers in the foodie paradise face an uncertain future as the Bangkok government in recent years has moved to clear footpaths, improve order and relocate vendors from curbsides in packed commercial districts to designated market stalls.

"I am worried because we are here illegally," said Looknam Sinwirakit, who was once fined 1,000 baht ($30) for obstructing the street while selling 50-baht fried glutinous rice cakes in the capital's Chinatown.

One of Bangkok's busiest tourist areas, the neighbourhood's steady flow of customers is worth the risk of city fines, Looknam, 45, told AFP.

"Vendors need to earn a living," she said. "It's not fair just to evict us, but if they tell us to (leave) then we have to."

Nearby, durian seller Wong Jaidee, who has sold the strong-smelling fruit for more than two decades, said he also feared being made to move.

"I don't have any backup plan," the 56-year-old said. "Bangkok is a high-priced city and we may not be able to cope."

- Time to move -

Since 2022, the estimated number of mobile vendors in the city has fallen by more than 60 percent, with around 10,000 fewer now on the streets, according to data from the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA).

While dozens have moved to informal markets and hawker centres -- using a model similar to Singapore, where food vendors are grouped in designated locations -- many others have simply closed their business due to the stricter regulations or because they were no longer profitable, said BMA official Kunanop Lertpraiwan.

The municipality has mostly targeted vendors crowding main roads with heavy pedestrian foot traffic, while those on side streets and in areas popular with backpackers and other tourists were allowed more flexibility, Kunanop said.

"We give them time and communicate with them clearly," he said, adding some sellers were given several months to find a new location.

"It's not like we will move them tomorrow."

The city is pushing more vendors to set up shop in one of five hawker centres opened in recent years -- the latest in April beside Bangkok's popular Lumphini Park.

With rows of food stalls and picnic tables, the new hub so far houses around a dozen vendors who previously sold food on nearby streets.

BMA encouraged them to relocate, and they now pay 60 baht a day to rent a hawker stall.

Panissara Piyasomroj, who sold noodles to morning runners in the park since 2004, said moving into the centre meant better conditions, including convenient water and electricity access.

Under a roof to beat the heat, the 59-year-old said her business had been "upgraded" and "looks cleaner".

- 'Part of the culture' -

But for other vendors, the prospect of moving from a familiar setting remains a concern.

Thitisakulthip Sang-uamsap, 67, has sold fried vegetable balls near Chinatown for more than 40 years and worries she could be forced to relocate.

"I live around here... if they ask me to leave, I won't be comfortable," she said, adding she hoped the government would show empathy for older vendors earning little income.

The crowded, bustling sidewalks and the smell of freshly grilled squid and other street treats are for many visitors a key part of Bangkok's charm -- and a cheap, tasty meal on-the-go is worth the hassle of a blocked path.

German tourist Oliver Peter said Thailand has one of the best cuisines in the world, noting his favourite, Pad Thai -- the popular stir-fried rice noodles ubiquitous in Bangkok's streetside woks.

"It would be sad if they go away," he said. "It's part of the culture."

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As global fuel markets reel from the Middle East war, motorists in Nepal are increasingly turning to electric vehicles, with high demand putting a strain on dealerships.

Electric microbus driver Purushottam Adhikari said he was now shuttling more passengers along the 300-kilometre (186-mile) journey between his town in Chitwan district and the capital Kathmandu.

"My profession is not affected (by the conflict)," said the 48-year-old, who drives his 18-seater Chinese-made e-van along Nepal's highways daily. "In fact, more people are choosing EVs."

Soaring global oil prices and fuel supply disruption since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz have led to long queues at gas stations in countries like Bangladesh and Pakistan, but Nepal has largely avoided the worst of the crisis.

"One of the main reasons is the increased penetration of electric vehicles on Nepal's roads," alternative energy expert Govind Raj Pokharel told AFP.

The country of 30 million people has an estimated 50,000 EVs, still a small fraction of the total 6.2 million motor vehicles, but a figure officials expect would keep increasing.

The price of petrol in Nepal, which imports all of its gasoline, has nearly doubled since the war began in late February with US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

While transport fares have gone up, Adhikari told AFP that his prices remain unchanged at 700 rupees ($4.60) for a one-way trip in his Joylong A6, which in turn costs $8 for a full recharge.

A full tank for a similar diesel vehicle would have cost "more than $66", he said.

- 'Comfortable and cheap' -

An expanding network of charging stations along major highways has made long-distance electric travel increasingly viable.

Boarding Adhikari's van, 20-year-old Susmita Bishowkarma said she prefers to travel in EVs because they are "environmentally friendly... comfortable and comparatively cheap".

Buoyed by a surge in hydropower generation and a greener electric grid than neighbouring India and Bangladesh, Nepal has emerged as one of the world's fastest adopters of EVs.

The Himalayan nation imported more than 13,500 EVs between mid-2024 and mid-2025 -- double that of petrol vehicles and a sharp rise from just seven a decade ago, government data shows.

Fume-free taxis and cars manufactured in China are a common sight in Kathmandu, with traffic officials estimating that up to 60 percent of microbuses entering the city from key routes are now electric.

Customs department spokesman Kishor Bartaula said the number of EVs would rise further with hundreds awaiting clearance at Nepal's ports.

In line with its clean energy policy, the government is seeking to replace some 10,000 vehicles damaged during anti-corruption protests last year with EVs, finance ministry spokesman Amrit Lamsal told AFP.

- Demand surge -

Concerns that ongoing conflict in the Middle East could prolong global fuel uncertainty are also influencing consumer behaviour.

Shraban Bhattari, 49, who recently bought a BYD Atto-2, said the Chinese-made car is saving him daily fuel expenses.

"I no longer need to go to the petrol pump," he said.

In April the government approved a legal framework to allow people to convert their petrol and diesel vehicles into electric ones, known as "retrofitting".

But EV dealers told AFP they were struggling to meet demand.

"It is getting challenging to meet the demand," said Ritima Pandey, customer relations officer at Venture Motors.

"As the price of diesel has gone up, many people are coming to trade in fuel vehicles for EV vans."

Schools and colleges are also exploring electric fleet purchases, dealer Dinesh Raj Pandeya said, signalling a shift beyond individual commuters.

Energy expert Pokharel urged policymakers to build on the momentum by encouraging domestic EV manufacturing and assembly.

"This will give us a long-term solution," he said.

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Long-pacifist Japan has shed its self-imposed ban on lethal weaponry exports, gunning for a prominent place in the global defence trade -- a challenging feat that analysts say could take years to achieve.

Under Japan's once-strict stance adopted following its World War II surrender and the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, it has generally restricted arms exports in recent times to non-lethal categories like rescue, transport and surveillance.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government scrapped these constraints last month, allowing firms to supply lethal weaponry to any of the 17 countries where Japan has defence cooperation agreements.

Prohibitions on sales to nations at war remain but can be circumvented under special circumstances.

Five Japanese firms, including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries, are already in the top 100 global defence companies, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

But they have largely lived off domestic demand from Japan's military, often in cooperation with US defence firms.

Analysts say a focus on high-tech sectors could help the transition, but caution that it could take years for defence exports to become a big contributor to economic growth, hampered by capacity and workforce shortages.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ian Ma said it was a "transition from a domestic, ministry-led procurement model to a normal practice which companies could drive business opportunities just like other global companies are doing."

He added that as newcomers on the global market, Japanese firms should focus on "higher-tech niches" like naval and propulsion systems, advanced missiles, sensors and electronics.

- No 'immediate impact' -

With conflicts raging around the world, the international defence market is huge and fast growing, soaring by 41 percent between 2016 and 2025 to almost $3 trillion, according to SIPRI.

While Japanese firms may only export to 17 countries, those include some of the world's biggest defence spenders like the United States, Germany, India and Britain.

Evolutions in technology and the way wars are fought -- notably with drones -- are also making the global arms market more diffuse, which could benefit Japan, according to analysts at the Stimson Center.

Along with a steep decline in Russian arms exports, Washington's "increasingly unpredictable, extractive, and at times confrontational approach" has also pushed importers to seek alternatives to the United States, the Stimson Center said in a research note.

"Though the trend remains nascent, for Japan, the wandering eyes of traditional US defence partners could add to the demand for the sorts of sophisticated capabilities Tokyo is well-prepared to offer."

Even before the new changes, Japan has been no slouch.

Last year Mitsubishi Heavy Industries won a landmark order for 11 warships from the Australian navy.

Japan is also developing a new fighter jet with Britain and Italy, and countries in Southeast Asia are reportedly interested in acquiring used Japanese submarines and warships.

But Mitsubishi Electric, which supplied a radar system to the Philippines and may soon make air-to-air missiles with US partners, told AFP that the new rules would not have a "significant immediate impact on our business".

Rival IHI said that the changes "will not lead to an immediate acceleration of our defence equipment business", but "will have a significant impact on creating a market environment that accelerates international cooperation".

- 'Homework' -

Ma cautioned that Japan has "homework" to do, including on production capacity, skilled labour, second- and third-tier suppliers, certification, testing, maintenance support and the ability to "deliver on time".

Beyond the economic stakes, deepening security ties is also a strategic necessity for Japan, said Heigo Sato, a professor at Takushoku University, in a region where China is flexing its muscles and home to nuclear-armed North Korea.

"When it comes to defence industry cooperation, Japan is by no means a country with the world's most advanced weaponry; therefore, we must actively work to build relationships with other nations," Sato told AFP.

The Japanese public is not at all comfortable with the new strategy, with 55 percent of respondents in a recent Nikkei poll saying that they were opposed to the expansion of arms exports.

Days after Takaichi announced the new rules, dozens of protestors rallied in Tokyo.

In World War II, "Japan committed acts of aggression, and in turn suffered enormous damage from the atomic bombs," demonstrator Yura Suzuike told AFP.

Japan's pacifist constitution that followed had been drafted "with the resolve that we must never again wage war or kill people", she said.

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Lionel Messi's Inter Miami squandered a 3-0 lead to fall 4-3 to Orlando City on Saturday and remain in search of a first win at their new Nu Stadium.

Miami appeared to be on their way in Argentine superstar Messi's 100th match with the South Florida side.

But Orlando scored the final four goals to hand the Herons their second defeat of the Major League Soccer season.

Messi's brilliant strike in the 33rd minute gave the hosts a 3-0 lead, the former Barcelona star curling a left-footed shot from just outside the penalty area past Orlando goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau.

Ian Fray had opened the scoring for Miami in the fourth minute and Venezuelan Telasco Segovia doubled the score in the 25th.

But the team coached by Argentine Guillermo Hoyos couldn't maintain the pace.

Argentine Martin Ojeda scored Orlando's first three goals, pulling one back in the 39th minute with a brilliant long-range strike.

Ojeda repeated the formula with another shot from the edge of the box in the 68th minute.

He delivered the equalizer in the 79th minute from the penalty spot, taking his tally to seven goals in 11 matches this season.

Tyrese Spicer completed the spectacular comeback in second-half injury time, latching onto a long ball in behind the center backs and finishing between the legs of goalkeeper Dayne St. Clair.

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As Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz roils the global economy, one German town has been scrambling to help make up the shortfall in essential supplies of fertilisers.

Wittenberg, better known to many as a cradle of the Protestant Reformation, is also home to a chemical plant founded in 1915, in the midst of World War I.

At that time the aim was to produce nitrogen for explosives and fertilisers to circumvent a blockade which prevented certain raw materials being imported from Chile.

More than a century later, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz "shows that it's still the same thing today -- sea routes can collapse", Christopher Profitlich, spokesman for the SKW company, which took over the site in 1993, told AFP.

A third of the world's fertilisers normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz and the World Trade Organization (WTO) has warned that the blockade there threatens global food security, particularly in Africa and South Asia. 

"That's why it makes so much sense to have production in Europe," Profitlich said.

- Domino effect -

At SKW's sprawling 220-hectare site, a 23-kilometre rail network transports urea, ammonia and finished fertilisers, destined for sites across Germany and elsewhere in Europe.

SKW is Germany's largest producer of urea, an essential component of fertilisers. In one of its warehouses, a mountain of acrid-smelling white powder rises several metres high.

The plant has been running at full capacity to try to make up the shortfall in supply from the Hormuz blockade.  

The company expects an increase in revenue this year of between 10 and 20 percent, but stresses this estimate remains uncertain because of market volatility. 

SKW's CEO Carsten Franzke says that the company is not a "war profiteer" and will probably just break even once soaring energy costs are also taken into account.

Around 80 percent of the company's production is powered by gas, which has doubled in price since the conflict broke out on February 28. 

Like much of German industry, SKW had already been struggling with the energy crisis triggered by the Ukraine war, which starkly exposed the country's reliance on Russian gas.

SKW posted losses three years in a row as the country strove to wean itself off cheap Russian energy supplies.

Today the company imports natural gas from Norway, the Netherlands and the United States, but is suffering as prices rise on global markets due to a domino effect from the latest conflict.

"We can pass on the higher costs to the consumers of our products," Franzke said.

"The problem is that our customer, the farmer, might not be able to pass these costs on," he said.

- Looming shortage - 

One such farmer struggling with the impact of the crisis is Gerhard Geywitz, who relies on nitrogen-based fertilisers at his farm in the southwestern state of Baden-Wuerttemberg. 

Speaking to AFP in his cornfield, he said that since the war began, the price of fertiliser has jumped by 50 percent. 

He explained that as cereal prices on the world market have remained stable, he has had to absorb the cost and can't pass it on. 

If the war drags on, Geywitz worries about "a fertiliser shortage by next year".

"For this reason we've decided to stock up now, before prices become exorbitant," Geywitz said.

The German Fertiliser Producers' Association (BVDM) pointed out that several European plants have closed in recent years due to costs, even before the current crisis.

"Without local producers and competitive farming, food security in Europe is seriously threatened," the BVDM said in a statement to AFP.

"Dependence on international markets represents a certain risk," it added.

The crisis has revived worries that European businesses in these sectors will struggle to compete with foreign rivals who face fewer constraints, particularly in terms of environmental standards. 

Like many others in German industry, Franzke has called for a review of the EU's carbon trading scheme in order to ease pressure on businesses.

The European Commission has said it is looking into the issue. 

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Seven OPEC+ members are meeting Sunday to make their first decision on oil-production quotas since the United Arab Emirates' departure from the cartel, which added to the soaring price pressure unleashed by the Mideast war.

The UAE, one of the world's top producers, announced April 28 it was withdrawing from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the expanded OPEC+ group, after chafing at their production quotas. The withdrawal took effect on Friday.

Neither group has reacted publicly so far -- meaning there will be intense focus on the tone of the statement at the end of Sunday's online meeting by Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Saudi Arabia.

The production decision itself is already priced in by markets. The seven countries are widely expected to increase their quotas by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management.

That is similar to a 206,000-barrel daily increase announced in March and April, subtracting the portion allotted to the UAE.

- Quota question mark -

But raising the quota on paper may not have much impact on actual production, which is already short of the limit.

Untapped OPEC+ reserves are mainly located in the Gulf region, and exports there are trapped by the blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz, imposed by Iran in response to the US-Israeli strikes that started the war on February 28.

"Total OPEC+ output with quota fell to 27.68 million bpd in March, against a monthly quota of 36.73 million bpd, a shortfall of approximately 9 million bpd driven almost entirely by war-related disruption rather than voluntary restraint," said Priya Walia, an analyst at Rystad Energy.

The blockade is hitting Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The latter's production will no longer count towards OPEC quotas.

Iran, whose exports are now the target of a retaliatory US blockade, is an OPEC+ member but is not subject to quotas.

Russia, the group's second-biggest producer, has been the main beneficiary of the situation. But despite soaring energy prices, it appears to be struggling to produce at the level of its current quotas as its own war in Ukraine drags on.

- 'Big deal' -

The UAE's exit is "a big deal" for OPEC, said Amena Bakr, an analyst at Kpler.

Previous withdrawals from the group by Qatar in 2019 and Angola in 2023 were less significant by comparison, she told a video conference on the UAE withdrawal.

Besides being the fourth-biggest OPEC+ producer by output, the UAE has major untapped production capacity, an important lever when the group needs to regulate the market.

"The UAE had brought up grievances over its quotas" going back to 2021, said Bakr.

The UAE has invested massively in infrastructure in recent years, and state-owned oil company ADNOC plans to increase output by five million barrels a day by 2027 -- far above the country's last quota of around 3.5 million barrels.

That makes the UAE a competitive player that can produce at low cost -- potentially limiting the impact of efforts by Saudi Arabia and its allies to shape the market.

There is also the risk for OPEC+ that other countries will leave such as Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have faced repeated accusations of surpassing their quotas.

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Joel Embiid scored 34 points and grabbed 12 rebounds to propel the Philadelphia 76ers to a 109-100 victory over Boston that eliminated the Celtics from the NBA playoffs on Saturday.

Tyrese Maxey scored 10 of his 30 points in a frantic fourth quarter as the seventh-seeded Sixers thwarted the second-seeded Celtics' comeback bid, completing their own comeback from 3-1 down in the series to book an Eastern Conference semi-final showdown with the New York Knicks.

The series was the 23rd playoff clash between the two teams and Boston had won the last six, knocking Embiid out of the playoffs in 2018, 2020 and 2023.

Embiid had said he was tired of losing to the Celtics, and he and Maxey made sure it didn't happen again, keying the 76ers' first-ever victory in a series in which they trailed 3-1.

It's the 14th time an NBA team has come back from 3-1 down to win a series.

"We had a talk after game five and just said, 'Hey, man, we can't let the same stuff happen over and over and over again. At some point we've got to put a stop to it.'

"And we did," Maxey told broadcaster NBC.

It wasn't a smooth ride, even with Boston missing star Jayson Tatum, who was ruled out less than two hours before tip-off with a sore left knee.

Tatum had exited late in the third quarter of Thursday's game-six blowout loss to the Sixers, and he could only watch from the bench as the Celtics season ended.

Tatum, who ruptured his right Achilles tendon in last year's playoffs, had missed the first 62 games of the regular season but had gone from strength to strength since his season debut in March.

Jaylen Brown scored 34 points and pulled down nine rebounds to lead the Celtics and Derrick White added 26 points.

But Boston connected on just 13 of 49 three-point attempts and were playing catch-up all night after the 76ers pushed their lead to as many as 15 in the first quarter.

Boston clawed back and took a one-point lead midway through the second period, but they couldn't maintain momentum.

Up by five at halftime, the 76ers pulled away again in the third quarter and led by 13 going into the final frame.

Boston made a final push, cutting the deficit to one point multiple times in the fourth quarter to ignite the crowd at TD Garden arena, but they couldn't get over the hump.

Maxey scored eight straight points to push Philadelphia's lead to 107-98 and the Sixers closed it out despite a scare for the oft-injured Embiid, who came up limping after a knock to the knee.

"Just playing hard," Embiid said of the key to victory. "We started off well and then in the second quarter we kind of relaxed a little. Same thing with the start of the fourth.

"But we stuck together, closed it out," said Embiid, who underwent an emergency appendectomy less than a month ago. "It's about playing hard."

bb/sla

For a few fleeting days each year, India's often-shunned transgender community is welcomed and revered at a festival that is at once sacred ritual, celebration, and a refuge.

At the heart of it is the Koothandavar Temple where ostracised transgender community members from across India come to honour the Hindu deity Aravan -- and to enjoy a brief oasis of freedom.

Several thousand attend the annual ceremony in Koovagam, in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, a tradition rooted in millennia-old Hindu texts that has gained prominence in recent decades.

"I need a life like a bird," said Thilothama, 34, who uses only one name, her voice steady amid the hum of drums and devotional songs.

"Freedom -- to do what I want, despite being transgender."

Thilothama, who works for Thozhi, a Chennai-based charity supporting transgender people, has spent more than a decade helping others find work and counselling those navigating rejection and uncertainty.

Her own journey has been shaped by both resilience and loss.

Facing opposition from her family over her gender identity, she left home and built a life within the transgender community.

Today she earns a modest income -- but speaks with quiet pride about her independence.

- 'My world' -

For the past 10 years Thilothama has returned to Koovagam, where a beauty pageant and singing contests are held alongside religious rituals.

"I believe the rituals here bring good things," she says, adjusting her sari.

She recalls caring for a friend's bedridden mother, only to be barred from the funeral rites after her death.

"That was the hardest time," she says.

The festival culminates in two days of ceremonies as Koovagam briefly becomes a rare space of acceptance.

On the first, priests tie a sacred thread around the necks of the transgender devotees, symbolising their marriage to the Hindu warrior god Aravan.

The next day, as devotees cry in mourning for his death, the thread and their wrist bangles are cut.

South Asia has a long history of people assigned male at birth but who identify as female.

In India's last census in 2011, more than 487,000 people were members of the third gender -- a designation the supreme court formally recognised in 2014, but whose members still face severe discrimination.

For Anuya, a member of the community, the change in how she is treated at the festival is striking.

"Here, people smile at me, speak kindly. The villagers who are participating in this festival believe that if they get blessing from transgender people, they will have prosperity in their life," she says.

"So I am getting more respect, and in this way I feel more proud of becoming transgender."

As night falls, music and laughter ripple through the village.

"Usually, I feel alone. Here, I see so many like me," says Dhanshika, another member of the community, smiling as she watched friends dressed in their finest sari dresses.

"I feel this is my world."

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The battle for control of the US Congress entered its final six months on Sunday, with midterm elections in November that could reshape President Donald Trump's second term and redefine the balance of power in Washington.

As ever, the midterms will be a referendum on the president, with Democrats hoping to capitalize on economic discontent and Trump's sliding approval ratings to retake the House of Representatives and Senate -- while Republicans fight to defy political headwinds. 

At stake is not just legislative control but the trajectory of Trump's agenda, with a Democratic-run Congress able to launch investigations, block nominees and generally complicate the remainder of his presidency.

Early indicators point to a challenging environment for Republicans, with Trump's approval rating around 40 percent and economic dissatisfaction -- particularly inflation and Iran war-related costs -- eroding confidence.

Polling shows Democrats with a narrow edge on the generic ballot, while some surveys suggest voters now trust them more on the economy.

A Republican-aligned group, AFP Action, warned the party's Senate majority was "at risk," citing "structural headwinds" and disengaged voters.

In midterm elections, Americans vote to fill all 435 House seats, about one-third of the 100-member Senate and most governorships. Democrats need to flip three House seats and four in the Senate to take control.

"The Senate is on the table here," Molly Murphy, of pollster Impact Research, told cable network MS NOW, pointing to Trump's waning popularity and strong Democratic turnout in recent elections. 

"When the president's approval rating is at or below 40 percent, that is when you start to see these deeper pickups in much more Republican-heavy terrain."

Still, the landscape remains fluid, with structural challenges for both parties.

- 'Always tough' -

Republicans benefit from a favorable Senate map, with Democrats needing to win in states Trump carried. And heavily gerrymandered districts -- as well as a shrinking number of competitive seats -- limit how far a national swing can translate into House gains.

The campaign has been further complicated by a fierce redistricting battle, with states including Texas, California, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Utah and Virginia pursuing new mid-decade voting maps.

The overall impact of the changes -- alongside a Supreme Court ruling limiting race-based redistricting -- remains unclear.

Republicans are banking on financial advantages and voter concerns over immigration and national security, while Democrats are focusing on cost-of-living pressures and framing the election as a defence of democratic norms.

Ahead of the six-month mark, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer accused Republicans of undermining voting rights through pushes for over-zealous election security and immigration enforcement initiatives.

"Let's call it what it is: an effort to rig the system," he said. 

For Republicans, the central challenge remains the president himself. Midterms typically punish the party in power, and Trump's weak approval ratings have heightened concerns.

At the same time, even some of his supporters say his focus on foreign policy, particularly the war with Iran, has drawn attention away from domestic economic concerns that typically dominate midterm campaigns.

Even so, Republicans insist the race is far from settled, noting that political conditions can shift rapidly ahead of an election.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told CNBC that Republican prospects would depend on turnout and voters appreciating his party "delivering what we've delivered to finally start turning this mess around that we inherited a year and a half ago."

"Midterms are always tough for the incumbent party, but this is not your father's Democrat Party," Scalise said. 

ft/mlm

A gruff oyster farmer who only recently got rid of his Nazi-style tattoo is the unlikely face of the Democrats' bid to seize the Senate from President Donald Trump's Republicans -- and recover working-class voters.

That a man like Graham Platner finds himself on the front line of the fight for national power in the United States says a lot about a Democratic Party trying to find its way out of the wilderness.

Democrats are bullish about winning the House of Representatives in November's midterm elections. But the Senate -- and ability to wield real power during Trump's last two years -- is a far tougher challenge.

Enter Platner, a 41-year-old former Marine who talks movingly of his opposition to war after serving in Afghanistan and Iraq. He is targeting a key Senate seat in Maine, where longtime Republican incumbent Susan Collins is seen as vulnerable.

Virtually unknown a year ago, Platner has barnstormed across Maine, delivering a feisty, anti-establishment message.

Revelations that he had a skull tattoo similar to a Nazi symbol, as well as strings of troubling past social media posts about sexual assault and gays, failed to stop him.

On Thursday, Platner's heavyweight rival for the Democratic nomination, current state Governor Janet Mills, threw in the towel. Now, he'll be trying to dethrone 73-year-old Collins in the election.

"Thank you all for believing," Platner posted in a video highlighting working-class supporters like fishermen and nurses who back "changing our politics."

Andrew Koneschusky, head of public relations firm Beltway Advisors, said the success of Platner's insurgency reflects wider hunger.

"Voters want authenticity," he told AFP. "They don’t want robotic poll-tested candidates anymore."

- Authenticity or liability? -

For years, Democratic activists have been clamoring for everyman-candidates -- populists with blue collar backgrounds who can talk to regular folk, especially non-college-educated white men. It's natural Democratic territory that Trump and his hard-right MAGA coalition have done much to poach.

Platner, with his war record, oyster farmer's gnarled hands, and plain talk, seemed to fit the bill.

But there were problems. 

That tattoo and the social media posts -- which Platner explains respectively as the result of a misguided outing during his Marines days and dark post-combat rants -- highlighted the risk of running untested candidates.

And several Democratic grandees like Chuck Schumer, the party's leader in the Senate, pushed for Mills as the safer choice.

But polling showed voters were adamant: at 78, Mills literally represented the old guard and the party base wants to move on.

"Voters don’t like it when establishment figures anoint a candidate," Koneschusky said.

- Searching for a big tent  -

Third Way, a think tank pushing for more centrist Democratic platforms, says the party needs to do better at accepting candidates who don't fit in normal liberal boxes.

A Gallup poll last year showed that 45 percent of Democrats or Democrat-leaning independents wanted the party to become more moderate, up 11 percentage points from 2021.

That search is taking Democrats in many directions.

Another new candidate in the Platner-mold is burly Pennsylvania firefighter Bob Brooks, who is running for Congress.

He too is touted as appealing to working-class voters but ran into trouble from liberal activists over past comments defending gun ownership in the wake of a mass shooting -- a hugely sensitive issue.

Brooks quickly apologized and admitted to saying "a few stupid things."

But figures like Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherill, who convincingly won governorship races in Virginia and New Jersey last year, come from the national security world and pride themselves on centrism.

And then there's James Talarico, running for a Senate seat in ultra-conservative Texas.

Another unknown outside his home state until recently, Talarico has become a Democratic star by taking on Republicans at their own game -- by making his Christian faith the cornerstone of his politics.

The Bible-quoting 36-year-old faces a huge challenge in Texas.

But "if anybody can do it," said Matt Bennett at Third Way, "it's him."

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