Democrats lead in key Michigan races as Election Day nears

Polling has El-Sayed leading Rogers 48.4%-44.4%. That is according to the average of the five most-recent polls compiled by 270toWin, with the most recent posted on Thursday.

The U.S. Senate race is considered one of the most competitive contests in the nation, with millions of dollars pouring into Michigan from both parties.

Of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, 33 are up for regular election in 2026, along with two special elections. Democrats currently hold 13 of the seats on the ballot, while Republicans hold 22. That means this election cycle will determine which party controls the 120th Congress. Michigan, as a battleground state, will be on the frontlines of that decision.

In 2024, Michigan’s U.S. Senate race was decided by less than half a percentage point, with U.S. Sen. Elissa Slotkin narrowly defeating Rogers. Rogers is running again this election cycle as the Republican nominee after receiving the party’s backing unopposed.

Rogers has received the endorsement of President Donald Trump, but it’s unclear how that might affect the election. Currently, the race is considered likely Democrat, while betting markets give El-Sayed a 74% chance of winning.

The polling in the U.S. Senate race marks a shift from before the primary, when Rogers held the advantage over El-Sayed. The gap has also widened in El-Sayed’s favor as time has passed since the Aug. 4 primary.

Over the past few months, El-Sayed has faced criticism from Republicans and some Jewish leaders, particularly over his relationship with Hasan Piker, a political streamer who campaigned alongside El-Sayed during the primary.

He’s continued to receive the backing of the Democratic establishment though, announcing on Monday that former President Barack Obama would join him and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jocelyn Benson on the campaign trail on Oct. 24.

Benson, who is currently the Michigan Secretary of State, is running against Republican candidate and U.S. Rep. John James for governor of Michigan.

In that race, the Democrat is also polling ahead of the Republican, with Benson rallying 49.4% to James’ 42.2%. That is according to the average of the five most-recent polls compiled by 270toWin, with the most-recent posted on Sept. 30.

Benson has served as the state’s secretary of state since her election in 2018. Prior to that, she worked as an attorney and as dean of Wayne State University Law School.

In her role as Michigan’s chief elections official, Benson has been vocal in her opposition to the Trump administration.

Over the past year, she has received significant backlash from state Republicans over everything from election integrity concerns to her past involvement with the Southern Poverty Law Center following a federal indictment against the organization.

James was first elected to the U.S. House in 2022, after two failed campaigns for U.S. Senate in 2018 and 2020 and a failed campaign for governor in 2022.

A veteran and businessman, James is running on a “Freedom Agenda.” His platform prioritizes ethics reform and transparency, ending fraud and waste, and passing a parents’ bill of rights.

James has been endorsed by President Donald Trump.

Currently, the race is considered likely Democrat, while betting markets give Benson a 93% chance of winning.