Luke Injaychock

Boone County Prosecuting Attorney Roger Johnson announced that a pair of criminal charges against Mizzou football freshman JJ Bush were dropped Wednesday. He confirmed the information to KOMU 8 News.

Bush faced a Class D felony charge of aggravated fleeing a stop or detention of a motor vehicle and a Class B misdemeanor of careless and imprudent driving after the arresting officer observed Bush traveling “approximately 80 mph” on Monday on East Broadway. He was arrested before being bonded out later Tuesday.

While the charges were dropped, Johnson told KOMU that he expects the charges to be refiled in some capacity.

Bush was suspended from the Tigers indefinitely following the arrest. The four-star linebacker is originally from Theodore, Alabama.

(The Center Square) – A federal trade court struck down President Donald Trump's latest global tariff Thursday, ruling that the import taxes were unauthorized by law and ordering refunds for the businesses that brought the case.

The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled 2-1 that Trump overstepped his authority by invoking a never-before-used 1974 trade law to impose a 10% global import duty, continuing a pattern of courts rejecting the president's attempts to unilaterally raise taxes on imported goods without explicit congressional authorization.

The Liberty Justice Center said it was the fourth major legal defeat for Trump's tariff agenda since he took office.

Trump invoked the 1974 law hours after the Supreme Court's February ruling, but the court found he misapplied it, relying on trade and current account deficits rather than the specific balance-of-payments measures Congress had in mind when it wrote the statute five decades ago.

The court found that Trump's proclamation failed to identify the specific type of economic crisis the law requires, ruling that his reliance on trade and current account deficits did not satisfy the 1974 statute's terms.

"The President enjoys no inherent authority to impose tariffs during peacetime," the court wrote, citing the Supreme Court's February ruling that struck down Trump's previous tariffs.

"The United States has a trade deficit, not a balance-of-payments deficit, and does not have international payments problems," said Jeffrey Schwab, senior counsel at the Liberty Justice Center, which represented small businesses in the case. "The president cannot impose these tariffs under Section 122."

The Liberty Justice Center filed the lawsuit on behalf of Burlap & Barrel, a New York-based online spice retailer, and Basic Fun, a Florida-based toy company, the two companies together are facing more than $750,000 in tariff costs over the 150-day period covered by the law. A coalition of Democrat-led states filed a separate challenge, but most were dismissed by the court for lack of standing.

"This ruling is a major victory for small businesses like ours that depend on fair and predictable trade policy," said Ethan Frisch, co-founder and co-CEO of Burlap & Barrel. "This decision is an important win for American companies that rely on global manufacturing to deliver safe and affordable products," said Jay Foreman, CEO of Basic Fun.

American businesses have paid about $8 billion in Section 122 tariffs since March, on top of $166 billion collected under Trump's previous tariff regime before the Supreme Court struck it down, according to the We Pay the Tariffs coalition. The ruling entitles the three plaintiffs to refunds of duties already paid, but the coalition warned the process could prove difficult, noting that IEEPA refunds launched last month are already being absorbed by tariff-related debts for many businesses.

The ruling is likely to be appealed. A dissenting judge argued the majority invented a measurement standard from statistical tables in legislative history and ruled on grounds neither party had raised, giving the administration procedural arguments to pursue on appeal.

Trump is also moving forward with trade investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which could form the legal basis for a new round of tariffs.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

As midterm elections approach, voters are increasingly skeptical of Trump's tariff agenda. A Center Square Voters' Voice poll found that 42% of voters say American consumers primarily pay the cost of tariffs, while just 12% believe foreign countries bear the burden.

Total presidential tariffs paid since March 2025 have reached $283 billion, according to trade data.

The Tigers traveled back to Columbia with their tails between their legs after an underwhelming series against No. 5 Georgia that saw Mizzou baseball get swept. The team was run-ruled in the final two games. 

Now returned to the familiar confines of Taylor Stadium, the Tigers will face Vanderbilt for their home finale of the 2026 campaign this weekend. 

Being situated at the bottom of the Southeastern Conference, there is not much the Tigers can gain from this series in reality. They can, however, play spoiler for the Commodores, who sit at No. 68 nationally in RPI. They would need to move up in the ranking to be likely to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament. 

The main thing holding the Commodores back is their pitching. They have just one qualified pitcher in Connor Fennell, who has a 5.48 ERA across 12 starts. He ranks sixth in the conference in innings pitched (67⅓) and eighth in strikeouts (82). 

Vanderbilt's Game 2 and Game 3 starters were listed at TBA for the series. 

The Commodores have three players batting above .300 on their roster, with Brodie Johnston (.347) and Braden Holcomb (.345) atop the conference. The duo has combined for 27 home runs and 88 RBI in the 2026 campaign.

Last weekend did not go in Vanderbilt's favor. The Commodores were swept by No. 19 Alabama. 

One last time at Taylor

The Tigers have won one SEC game at home in the last two seasons. They will have the final chance to add to that total this weekend.

They have proven that they can keep games close, but have not been able to get over the final hump of winning. Mizzou has lost six SEC games by two runs or less this season.

Starting pitchers Josh McDevitt and Brady Kehlenbrink have been a large part of the reason why Mizzou has been able to stay close.

McDevitt has a 3.84 ERA and tossed a gem against No. 5 Georgia last weekend despite the loss. Kehlenbrink has had his share of struggles but provided a few quality starts this season. 

Keyler Gonzalez will have the first pitch for Game 3 in his second start for Mizzou. His outing last weekend against Georgia's top-ranked offense did not go well, giving up six runs in just 2⅓ innings.

His prior outings told of a very different pitcher. Gonzalez tossed six scoreless innings against Missouri State and five scoreless innings against Arkansas. 

The Tigers offense is highlighted by Jase Woita and Blaize Ward, who are the only two Mizzou batters hitting above .300. Woita leads the team in nearly every offensive category. He had 11 home runs and 44 RBI. 

But Kam Durnin also demands mention. He swatted three home runs against Georgia, with two in the series finale for his first multi-homer game as a Tiger. 

The first pitch of the three-game series will be at 6 p.m. Friday with Kehlenbrink matched up against Fennell on the mound. 

(The Center Square) – The federal government is projected to post a $2 trillion deficit in fiscal year 2026, double the 3% of GDP target that has bipartisan support in Congress, according to Treasury's quarterly refunding documents.

The $2 trillion figure in fiscal year 2026 is up from $1.7 trillion last year. The Office of Management and Budget projects a deficit of $2.065 trillion, primary dealers surveyed by Treasury projected a median of $1.950 trillion and the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline projected $1.853 trillion.

Will McBride, the Tax Foundation's chief economist, said the numbers show Congress isn't taking action to address financial warnings about the U.S. debt.

"It indicates Congress and the administration are still ignoring the dangers of an unsustainable debt trajectory and actively making it worse rather than addressing it," McBride told The Center Square. "The effect is to make a crisis more likely to happen sooner rather than later."

The projections come from Treasury's quarterly refunding presentation to the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, a panel of bond market participants that advises the department on debt management, making them among the most closely watched fiscal disclosures in financial markets.

A bipartisan resolution pending in Congress, House Resolution 981, would set a fiscal target of reducing the federal deficit to 3% of GDP or less by 2030. The measure has drawn support from both parties, with 18 co-sponsors including Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, Blue Dog Co-Chairs Jared Golden, D-Maine, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash., and the resolution's lead sponsors, Reps. Bill Huizenga, R-Mich., and Scott Peters, D-Calif.

Huizenga said the 3% target remains the right goal despite the widening gap.

"We've been on the wrong fiscal path for far too long," Huizenga told The Center Square. "The point of the resolution is to get Republicans and Democrats – in Congress, across the federal government, and throughout the private sector – to show agreement and rally around 3% as the most practical, immediate target to address the fiscal crisis."

Arrington, the House Budget Committee chairman, said the nation is "sleepwalking off of a cliff" on its fiscal trajectory.

"The federal deficit has not fallen below 3% of GDP since 2015," Arrington said. "According to current projections, it will continue to exceed 5% of GDP every year for the next three decades. Throughout our history, deficits this large have only appeared in the shadow of wars and economic collapse."

Arrington called for "a combination of discretionary spending discipline, pro-growth economic policies and entitlement reform" to address the problem.

The federal government has not recorded a budget surplus since 2001. Since then, spending has outpaced revenues every year, with deficits ballooning during the COVID-19 pandemic. The fiscal year 2025 deficit was $1.7 trillion, roughly 6% of GDP, and the new Treasury projections suggest fiscal year 2026 will be worse. The last time the federal government ran a deficit below the 3% of GDP threshold proposed in HR 981 was 2015, according to the resolution's own text.

Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said the trajectory is alarming.

"$2 trillion deficits used to be unheard of, and then they only occurred during major recessions – it's beyond scary that $2 trillion deficits are now the norm," she said in a statement.

Rep. Scott Peters, D-Calif., said the projections confirm the deficit is heading in the wrong direction.

"Congress needs to change course immediately," Peters told The Center Square, calling on lawmakers to pass his Fiscal Commission Act, which would appoint a bipartisan panel of Democrats, Republicans and independent experts to recommend changes to both taxes and spending to reduce borrowing.

A recent survey by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation found that 92% of voters – including 89% of Republicans, 92% of independents and 94% of Democrats – are concerned the national debt is driving up their personal cost of living. The foundation's U.S. Fiscal Confidence Index fell to a 22-month low of 42 in April, reflecting what the organization described as voters' desire for elected leaders to address the country's fiscal challenges.

"The rising national debt has effectively become a kitchen table issue for Americans because it contributes to rising costs across the economy, from grocery bills to car payments," said Michael A. Peterson, CEO of the Peterson Foundation.

The deficit projections come despite repeated commitments from the administration to address the nation's fiscal trajectory. In a March 2025 address to Congress, President Donald Trump pledged to balance the federal budget for the first time in 24 years. In his February 2026 State of the Union, Trump attributed a potential balanced budget to fraud elimination, saying his administration could balance the budget overnight if it found enough fraud.

The deficit trajectory is compounding the government's debt burden. The federal government spent more than $1 trillion servicing its debt in fiscal year 2025, more than it spent on national defense, and that figure is projected to grow. The national debt passed 100% of GDP in March, according to Treasury data. The Government Accountability Office, the nonpartisan research arm of Congress, warned in April that the nation's fiscal path is "unsustainable" and poses "serious economic, security, and social challenges if not addressed."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has long acknowledged the deficit problem. Before his confirmation, he publicly championed a "3-3-3" plan that included cutting the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2028, and during his January 2025 Senate confirmation hearing testified that federal spending was "out of control." His most recent congressional testimony, delivered April 22, focused on tax cuts and IRS modernization without addressing the deficit trajectory shown in his department's own quarterly refunding documents released two weeks later.

In response to a request for comment, Treasury pointed to economic growth projections and a fraud elimination task force announced in March. The GAO has estimated the federal government loses between $233 billion and $521 billion annually to fraud, based on data for fiscal years 2018 through 2022, a fraction of the projected $2 trillion deficit.

(The Center Square) – Exactly one month after the U.S. declared a ceasefire with Iran, the U.S. struck Iranian military sites Thursday in retaliation for “unprovoked” attacks on a U.S. Navy ship, according to U.S. Central Command.

Despite the strikes, U.S. officials claim the ceasefire remains intact. CENTCOM argues the strikes were self-defense in nature after Iran launched “multiple missiles, drones and small boats” on Navy destroyers USS Truxton, USS Rafael Peralta and USS Mason as they “transited international sea passage.”

CENTCOM says no “U.S. assets were struck” in the attacks.

“U.S. Central Command eliminated inbound threats and targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking U.S. forces including missile and drone launch sites, command and control locations; and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance nodes,” according to a statement from CENTCOM.

In response, Iranian military officials dispute claims from the U.S. that the ceasefire remains in place, arguing that the U.S. violated the ceasefire when it targeted an Iranian oil tanker.

CENTCOM concluded its statement saying it “does not seek escalation but remains positioned and ready to protect American forces.”

In addition to Iranian military sites struck, multiple reports indicate strikes were carried out on the Islamic Republic’s Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, and important oil and port areas in the southern region of the country.

While the ceasefire has been ongoing, tensions have been rising as the U.S. and Iran battle over the Strait of Hormuz, as commercial ships remain choked off by the closure of the vital waterway. Iran has been accused of using mines and fast attack boats to wreak havoc on the strait.

President Donald Trump launched “Project Freedom” Monday to safely escort commercial ships through the strait using U.S. military support. However, just 24 hours into the operation, the president put it on hold, citing talks with the Islamic Republic.

(The Center Square) – After a series of votes and statements putting him at odds with his fellow Democrats over the past year, U.S. Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., says that he has “no plans to leave” the party.

“Being an independent voice that works with the other side to deliver for Pennsylvanians might put me at odds with the party that I have stayed committed to and have no plans to leave — but I will continue to put the commonwealth and the country first,” Fetterman wrote in a Washington Post op-ed published on Thursday. “Plus, I’d be a terrible Republican who still votes overwhelmingly with Democrats.”

The op-ed written by Fetterman titled “I haven’t changed. Here’s what has.” details his career in elected office and voting record regarding a number of issues over the past year that have garnered pushback from fellow Democrats. 

Fetterman wrote that his focus in office remains on “working together to find wins and deliver for my constituents” and says, although he was elected as a Democrat, he’s “proud to serve all Pennsylvanians. 

“It has become increasingly lonely to serve in that way, but I firmly believe it’s what is needed,” Fetterman wrote. “My party cannot simply be the opposite of whatever President Donald Trump says. The president could come out for ice cream and lazy Sundays, and my party would suddenly hate them. Such pointless pile-ons and attacks are unproductive. The American people want us to work together to find solutions on issues they and our country face.”

Throughout recent appearances, Fetterman has claimed that his party has “TDS,” a shortened reference to “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, a Democrat from Philadelphia who also serves as a vice chair for the Democratic National Committee, called Fetterman “a mess” in a social media post in late April after Fetterman suggested his party had TDS for opposing the Trump administration’s renovation plans for a White House ballroom. 

Kenyatta isn’t the only party official to take issue with Fetterman over some stances. In March 2025, Cumberland County Democratic Party Chairman Matt Roan called for Fetterman to resign from office after he supported some of Trump’s cabinet nominees. Earlier this week, the Monroe County Democratic Party called Fetterman a “traitor” and for him to be voted out of office after he didn’t rule out voting for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for a cabinet position. 

The areas Fetterman specifically highlighted in the op-ed that have garnered the most headlines included immigration policy, government shutdowns, and supporting Israel. 

While defending his record on immigration, he highlighted his support for the Laken Riley Act as the lead Democrat, his vote for a bipartisan immigration reform bill in 2024, and his co-sponsorship of legislation to stop the flow of fentanyl.

Fetterman said that he “took no pleasure” in voting against his party amid government shutdowns, but believes that “the demand to keep the lights on weighed more heavily than partisan games.” 

With regard to Israel and the war in Gaza, Fetterman said that he “appreciates” that the Trump administration “acted on the threat Iran and its proxies pose.” 

“These once-common views have become increasingly toxic in the Democratic Party, a result of catering to the fringe and agitated parts of our base,” Fetterman wrote. 

“My values have not changed, and I have always turned to those kinds of ideals that defined being a Democrat,” he continued. “I remain strongly pro-choice, pro-weed, pro-LGBT, pro-SNAP, pro-labor and even pro-rib-eye over bio slop.”

Fetterman also underscored his work to deliver federal funding for transportation projects in the state, and a series of bipartisan bills, including one that would allow Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program recipients to use their benefits to buy hot rotisserie chicken, another that intends to protect the mental health of kids, and lastly legislation that helps keep Americans in their homes.

Chatter over the past few months about Fetterman’s commitment to the Democratic Party has increased amid declining poll numbers within the party and a recent Politico article highlighting a Republican effort to get him to switch parties.

Pennsylvania Republican Party Chairman Greg Rothman told the Center Square in April that he wouldn’t rule out the party supporting Fetterman’s bid in 2028 if he switched parties.

Gov. Josh Shapiro and U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick have also addressed the chatter in interviews this week. 

“I don’t know what Senator Fetterman’s going to do. I know that Pennsylvanians voted for a Democrat to represent them in the U.S. Senate,” Shapiro said to CNN this week. “So, I think he needs to honor that and continue with his service with Pennsylvania and get back to what he was elected to do and reflect the will of the people.”

McCormick told NBC10 Philadelphia this week that he has not talked to Fetterman about switching parties, but that he “would welcome him.” 

“I’ve never talked to him about changing parties, honestly,” McCormick told NBC10’s Lauren Mayk. “I feel blessed to have him as my colleague, we've developed a real relationship of trust.”

(The Center Square ) – A former Bahamian national security minister running for parliament faces growing scrutiny ahead of next week’s general election over his ties to a boat captain accused of attempting to smuggle cocaine into the United States.

Marvin Dames, a candidate with the Free National Movement party, acknowledged entering into a business arrangement with Bahamian boat captain Malcolm Goodman in 2024. Authorities later arrested Goodman near Florida and charged him after they say they discovered about 200 kilograms of cocaine aboard a vessel.

The Bahamas will hold its general election on Tuesday, May 12.

Federal authorities charged Goodman with possession with intent to distribute a controlled substance and importation of a controlled substance. Goodman could reportedly face life in prison if convicted.

Questions surrounding the case have intensified because of Dames’ previous role overseeing national security and drug interdiction efforts in the Bahamas. Critics also raised concerns about the vessel allegedly tied to Reel Xperience Charters, a company connected to Dames.

Dames has denied wrongdoing and denied knowledge of any alleged drug trafficking activity. However, critics say he has not fully explained the structure of the business relationship or the oversight surrounding the vessel.

The controversy has sparked concerns about U.S.-Bahamas relations because the island nation relies heavily on American tourism, trade and security cooperation.

The Bahamas currently benefits from visa-free travel to the United States for many citizens, along with U.S. customs pre-clearance operations inside the country. Those agreements help fuel tourism, which drives a major share of the Bahamian economy.

The Bahamas welcomed roughly 11.2 million visitors in 2024, according to tourism figures cited by political observers. About 85% reportedly came from the United States.

The Trump administration has pushed an aggressive anti-narcotics and anti-smuggling posture throughout the region, especially involving trafficking routes into Florida and the southeastern United States.

Critics in the media have sharply attacked Dames over the controversy.

“When Mount Moriah nominated former National Security Minister Marvin Dames as its candidate, it handed Bahamian voters something more uncomfortable than a ballot choice,” Miami Independent wrote in May 2026. “It handed them a liability.”

The outlet also wrote that “a major party has nominated a former National Security Minister — the man previously responsible for drug interdiction policy — whose acknowledged business partner was just caught moving $4 million worth of cocaine toward Florida.”

A February 2026 letter published by Bahamas Press argued Dames deserved a formal investigation.

“What is most interesting is the fact that a vessel registered in the Bahamas and owned by Marvin Dames was permitted to sail through the country for hours and into the US undetected!” the letter said.

The controversy adds to previous allegations involving Dames during his time in government.

In 2025, Our News reported that Bahamian National Security Minister Wayne Munroe accused Dames of signing and awarding contracts to himself. The Bahamas Herald also criticized Dames in 2024 over separate corruption allegations.

Dames has not been charged in the cocaine smuggling case.

(The Center Square) – The detention hearing for Army veteran Daniel Swain, the South Carolinian arrested in North Carolina accused of being headed to Washington, on Thursday was continued until next week.

He’s charged with communicating threats to the president.

In the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of North Carolina, Swain is now scheduled to appear May 15 at 9 a.m. in the Terry Sanford Federal Building and Courthouse in Raleigh. The motion to continue was uncontested, with reason to allow the defense counsel time to prepare for the probable cause and detention hearings.

Swain, of Summerville, S.C., was arrested in North Carolina on April 28 because of threats scrawled onto the vehicle authorities believe he was driving to Washington in search of second-term Republican President Donald Trump. The arrest in Apex at a car wash drew action from the U.S. Secret Service, the State Bureau of Investigation and its bomb squad, and the FBI.

According to the federal complaint, "The defendant, did knowingly and willfully make a threat to take the life of, to kidnap, or to inflict bodily harm upon the President of the United States."

If convicted, he could face five years in prison.

In Wake County District Court, he faces charges of resisting a public officer, possession of methamphetamine and a fictitious license plate.

Swain will remain jailed until the federal hearing.

Apex police said he had written threatening messages on the outside of his vehicle. One message read, “headed to WSH to kill the Pres.” The rear window messages said, “Tell Donald he is fired,” “5 dead 5 years,” and “3 Navy, Teacher & Trucker.”

A message on the passenger side window told the read to commit suicide. That was among the messages scrawled out after a car wash, according to the federal complaint relying on surveillance video.

The federal warrant says Swain “stated his motivation to write the threats on the vehicle was his perceived wrongful death of his father, uncle and grandfather. These family members served in the military and died under suspicious health-related circumstances.”

(The Center Square) – Four Republican U.S. senators are pushing a bill that would penalize states that issue driver’s licenses, commercial driver’s licenses, or personal identification cards to migrants illegally residing in the country.

“Since many illegal immigrants do not speak English and cannot read road signs, these drivers make roads less safe for the law-abiding public,” Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo., the bill’s main sponsor, said.

“While Wyoming already prohibits illegal immigrants from getting driver’s licenses, 19 states and the District of Columbia continue to issue personal and commercial driver’s licenses without verifying legal status.”

The No Licenses for Illegal Drivers or Truckers Act would slash a state’s annual federal highway funds by 10% if it does not verify the legal status of an applicant before issuing the person an ID or driver’s license.

The federal government would then redirect those withheld funds to states that are in compliance.

“We must defund woke sanctuary states who continue to put illegal aliens in the driver’s seat and Americans in the back seat,” Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, a cosponsor of the bill, said.

“This legislation puts Americans first and keeps our roads safe by not only cutting federal highway funding for any state that allows illegal aliens to obtain a state-issued or commercial driver’s license but also redirecting those dollars to states like Texas that actually enforce the law.”

The legislation advances the Department of Transportation’s efforts to address a slew of deadly vehicular accidents caused by migrant semitruck drivers – many of whom had resided in the country illegally – who could not read English road signs.

Some states, such as California and New York, have resisted the DOT's reform efforts, which include English language proficiency tests for all commercial drivers.

Though the No Licenses for Illegal Drivers or Truckers Act is marketed as legislation focused on road safety, its targeting of personal IDs as well as driver’s licenses also addresses Republicans’ election security concerns.

The Republican party fears that the relative laxness of many states’ voter identification requirements enables or could enable widespread election fraud.

Only 36 states require prospective voters to present personal ID to vote, and even those states usually allow people to vote without an ID so long as they sign affidavits or provide mere proof of residency.

The No Licenses for Illegal Drivers or Truckers Act would impact California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington.

All of those states allow undocumented residents to obtain drivers’ licenses, which can often be used as ID for voting purposes.

Though election officials are supposed to verify voters’ citizenship status on the backend, illegal votes are sometimes already counted before ineligible voters are identified, which happened in Michigan at least 15 times in 2024.

Democrats argue that instances of illegal voting are rare and that stronger proof of citizenship requirements can disenfranchise rural and low-income Americans.

Citing this reason, not a single Senate Democrat supported the SAVE America Act, a House-passed Republican bill that has essentially died in the Senate.

If it reaches the Senate floor for a vote, the No Licenses for Illegal Drivers or Truckers Act will likely receive similar Democratic opposition.

(The Center Square) - A new survey of Washington businesses reveals growing pessimism about the state’s economy and ability to be successful in the Evergreen state.

The survey conducted last month by the Association of Washington Business found about 24 percent of employers considering moving their business out of state, and even more are considering moving their personal residence out of Washington.

“It showed a precipitous decline in people's confidence in Washington's economy,” said AWB’s Vice President of Government Relations Morgan Irwin in a Wednesday interview with The Center Square.

More than 400 AWB member businesses took part in the quarterly survey.

“The reason we do a quarterly survey is so that we can show not only where we're at in a single point in time, but we could show trends over time,” said Irwin.

“One of the things that we added to our survey in January, was ‘is a person looking to move?’ Is a business owner looking to move their personal domicile out of state?”

In Spokane County, a short drive from the Idaho border, 67% of respondents said they were considering moving their personal residence to another state.

Irwin said comparing even Q1 of this year versus where we are today in Q2, the survey found “increases in everything you don't want to increase and decreases in everything you do want to increase.”

“Are you confident in our economy? That number has dropped. Are you planning to expand your business? That number dropped. Are you planning to move your business out of state? That number increased."

"Are you planning to move your personal domicile out of state? That went from 45% in January up to 55% three months later," Irwin added.

Key findings in AWB report

• 72% of respondents rate Washington’s overall tax burden as a top business challenge, up from 64% last quarter and up 18 points since winter 2025
• 7% rate Washington’s economy as strong or very strong, down from 10% last quarter and down 16 points since winter 2025
• 22% say their business is growing, up slightly from last quarter but down 5 points since winter 2025
• 9% plan to expand in Washington in the next year, down from 20% in winter 2025, while 38% are planning to expand in another state, up from 21% in winter 2025
• 46% expect a recession in the next year, up from 34% last quarter and up 29 points since winter 2025

“So, it’s really, really, really troubling data,” Irwin said. “It is not, ‘everyone's leaving and close up the economy’…..but it is a very troubling trend that's going in the wrong direction in terms of having an economically vital Washington state.”

Irwin said the recently passed income tax is having an impact on businesses and business owners  deciding to stay in Washington.

“A lot of things have happened, but the biggest one is that we passed an income tax. So, I'm not saying that 100% of that additional 10% and people planning to move their domicile out of state is about the income tax, but when we take a look around at the things that passed between now and then, that's a pretty big driver,” Irwin said.

Survey questioned

An advocacy group that backed the income tax is taking issue with AWB’s survey results.

“Actual data from across the U.S. show that state taxes do not cause moves by wealthy households," noted a press release emailed to The Center Square by Invest in WA Now.

"As one economist recently told the New York Times about the wealth flight boogeyman: 'It is largely indeed a myth, and it’s more than that — it’s frankly almost propaganda.'"

“After the capital gains tax, WA gained more millionaires, not less," the release states. The group says the “millionaire class” grew by 46.9% in Washington despite the state’s first ever capital gains tax.

Top concerns for AWB members

“Taxes are number one. Healthcare costs are number two. Then it’s the regulatory environment,” Irwin said.

“Number four is the cost of fuel. That one really jumped. I think that some of that is from cost drivers that are happening outside of Washington State. But certainly, a large portion of that is directly laid at the feet of CCA.”

The Climate Commitment Act adds another about 52 to 58 cents to every gallon of gas in Washington, according to policy experts. Add that to the 55.4-cent excise tax, and the state tax burden per gallon is over $1.10.

Average price for unleaded fuel in Washington Thursday is $5.76, up from $4.26 one year ago. Diesel fuel averages $6.84 per gallon, up from $4.45 one year ago.

“It’s just not a super bright economic outlook right now,” Irwin said. “It’s an extremely difficult place to do business.”