DePaul guard CJ Gunn, left, drives to (copy)

(The Center Square) – A U.S. House of Representatives seat in Cleveland is at the center of the fight over labor policy and tariffs.

Democrat Brian Poindexter is challenging incumbent U.S. Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio, in the newly competitive race to represent Ohio’s 7th Congressional District. Poindexter, a union ironworker, is leaning on his background in the trades to win over blue-collar voters, especially Republicans.

After allegations of spousal and child abuse against Miller became public this year, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved the race from “likely Republican” to “toss up.”

Democrats see an opportunity to flip a once probable red seat and regain control of the House after the midterms.

Control of the House will come down to a handful of battleground races like Ohio’s 7th District. Whichever party wins the majority on Nov. 3 will set policy priorities in the chamber for the last two years of President Donald Trump’s term.

Both Poindexter and Miller are running on reviving the manufacturing sector, but are taking different approaches to get there. Poindexter is focusing on labor law and the minimum wage, while Miller is homing in on tax policy and deregulation.

Poindexter says his first priority if elected to Congress will be union legislation. He has campaigned on his support for the Protecting the Right to Organize Act, which would make it easier for employees to join labor unions and bargain with their employers.

“I’ve spent my career on jobsites where safety rules weren’t ‘red tape,’” Poindexter wrote on his campaign website. “They were the difference between going home at night or not. Calling worker protections ‘burdensome’ ignores the reality of the people doing the work.”

Poindexter also supports raising the federal minimum wage, though he has not specified a figure.

Poindexter has been a union ironworker for 20 years and teaches an apprenticeship program in the field. He won an eight-way Democratic primary in May with 37% of the vote.

Miller’s approach to worker pay runs through the tax code. He voted for his party’s 2025 tax and spending package, dubbed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and touted its provisions eliminating tax on tips and overtime.

Like Poindexter, Miller has vocalized support for career and technical education.

“The American dream does not require a 4-year degree and a mountain of student loan debt,” Miller’s campaign website says.

Poindexter has made his opposition to the Trump administration’s tariffs a central part of his House campaign. He says tariffs have raised prices for working Ohioans, especially farmers.

“While targeted tariffs can be a tool, I oppose the blanket tariffs that are making everything more expensive,” Poindexter wrote in a candidate survey.

Miller has backed efforts in Congress to preserve the administration’s tariffs, voting no on a resolution in February that would have overturned tariffs on Canada. He also voted in favor of multiple procedural measures restricting Congress’ ability to challenge the White House’s tariffs.

Miller, a former aide in the first Trump White House, was endorsed by the president in May. Trump called Miller “a fantastic champion for the great people of Ohio’s 7th Congressional District” who will “advance our America First agenda.”

November’s election will be the first under Ohio’s new congressional map. Trump carried the redrawn 7th District by 11 points over former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, according to the Downballot.

In his latest filings to the Federal Election Commission, Miller reported $2.14 million in funds raised and $1.38 million in cash on hand. Poindexter reported $603,000 with $312,000 still on hand.

Polls in Ohio will stay open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. on Election Day.

(The Center Square) - With three weeks until the midterm elections, unexpected races across the country are tightening as control of Congress hangs in the balance.

The race between U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kansas, and Democratic opponent Adam Hamilton tightened in recent weeks as control of the U.S. Senate is potentially up for grabs. The Cook Political Report moved the Kansas U.S. Senate race to a “toss up” this week as competition heats up in the race.

Democrats must gain a net four seats in the U.S. Senate to gain a majority in the upper chamber. A Democrat has not won a U.S. Senate seat in Kansas since 1932.

Hamilton, a United Methodist pastor, has focused his campaign on lowering household energy and utility costs, ending the Trump administration’s tariff policies, and expanding Medicare drug price negotiations.

Hamilton said he would support the Trade Review Act, legislation led by U.S. Sens. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., and Jerry Moran, R-Kansas. The legislation would require congressional approval for new tariffs and publish the cost of tariffs for Americans.

“When Washington imposes sweeping tariff taxes without a vote, the bill lands on Kansas farmers, manufacturers, and families in the form of higher prices on everything from equipment and fertilizer to groceries,” Hamilton’s website reads.

Marshall criticized the Trade Review Act when it was introduced in March 2025. He pushed for support of the president’s tariff authority and said it would bring back manufacturing jobs to the United States.

In an interview, Marshall acknowledged that the tariffs would cause “short-term pain.”

“This is also going to bring jobs back to America as well, which is a good thing,” Marshall said in a February 2025 interview. “So I think there’s some real good logic behind what President Trump is doing.”

Marshall has appeared to distance himself from the Trump administration’s signature policies in recent weeks. The incumbent senator expressed frustration over the president’s proposal to import beef from foreign countries.

“When [President Trump] does this, he sends the wrong signal to the rancher to keep his heifers rather than selling them into the market,” Marshall said.

Marshall has also highlighted access to healthcare as a key issue of his campaign. He touted his work on the Patients Deserve Price Tags Act, legislation that would require hospitals and insurance companies to publicly disclose prices for provided services.

Marshall estimated the bill would reduce healthcare costs by $1,000 per month in a family when it is signed into law.

“When this bill is signed into law, there will be total transparency of healthcare bills, which is going to drive competition, which is going to bring the cost of healthcare down,” Marshall told The Center Square on a press call.

While the bill has earned broad bipartisan support, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul voted against the legislation. He said individuals on Medicare and Medicaid will not have a meaningful change to their prices just because they are transparent.

“There's only a very small amount of this market that cares about this and these people don't have insurance,” Paul said. “When you mandate transparency on prices that are fixed, [it] doesn't change the situation.”

Hamilton has also focused his campaign on lowering healthcare costs. He called for reversing the cuts to Medicaid from the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” restoring Affordable Care Act subsidies, and expanding Medicare drug price negotiations.

Hamilton said he would expand the list of negotiated drugs on Medicare, extend negotiated prices to private plans and speed up the coverage timeline. He pointed to the Congressional Budget Office’s 2019 estimate that the actions would save roughly $456 billion over the next decade.

“The country wastes billions of dollars every year on overpriced drugs and wasteful paperwork that helps no patient,” Hamilton’s website reads. "These reforms lower costs for Kansas families while saving taxpayers money.”

Marshall has a significant fundraising lead over Hamilton with more than $6.2 million in campaign contributions and $5.3 million in cash on hand. Hamilton has more than $4.1 million in contributions and $1.7 million in cash on hand.

Marshall received more than $230,000 from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee PAC over the last year, according to Federal Election Commission records. He also received $10,000 from the American Crystal Sugar Company PAC and $3,500 from the Zeneca Inc., PAC, which is associated with the pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca.

Hamilton took out $50,000 in personal loans to support his campaign, according to most recent FEC data. He also received $7,000 from Steve Mandel, the founder of Lone Pine Capital, and $6,325 from Randy Clinkscales at Clinckscales Elder Law Practice.

Early in person voting in certain Kansas counties will begin on Oct. 14. Polling places are open throughout the state from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day.

For more information, visit the Kansas Secretary of State, at sos.ks.gov. For results on Election Day, visit thecentersquare.com/kansas.

(The Center Square) – The U.S. Coast Guard has surpassed its recruiting goals for the third consecutive year. 

Under the Trump administration, the Coast Guard now has its largest enlisted class in nearly four decades. 

In fiscal 2026, which ended Sept. 30, the Coast Guard enlisted 5,445 active-duty members, exceeding the 5,204 who enlisted in fiscal 2025 and the 4,422 who enlisted in fiscal 2024. 

The Coast Guard also commissioned 346 active-duty officers this past year – making it the second highest number in recorded Coast Guard history.

“We surpassed our recruiting goals because Americans are ready and willing to serve in the U.S. Coast Guard conducting exciting missions that deliver results our Nation needs,” Adm. Tom Allan, vice commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard, said in a statement. “This momentum is about more than numbers; it is about being the world’s best Coast Guard and building the workforce America needs. We are proud to welcome our newest members and grateful to our recruiters for continuing to deliver exceptional results.” 

The recruitment record comes after the Trump administration and Congress allocated an historic nearly $25 billion to modernize the Coast Guard and expanded its interdiction efforts through the “Big Beautiful Bill.” It’s the largest single funding commitment in Coast Guard history.

Funds are being used to procure an estimated 17 new icebreakers, 21 new cutters, more than 40 helicopters and six C-130J aircraft. Funding also enabled the Coast Guard to modernize its shore infrastructure and maritime surveillance systems. It also enabled four new recruiting offices to be opened this year in Miami; Long Island, New York; Austin, Texas; and in the Netherlands, the Coast Guard said.

The record recruitment and infrastructure improvements are part of the Coast Guard’s Force Design strategic initiative. This includes fleet expansion, modernizing its workforce and enhancing readiness with a goal of growing its military force by 15,000 members.

The Coast Guard recently awarded a $400 million contract to modernize its training center complex in Cape May, New Jersey. The complex is used for basic training for its entire enlisted force. It’s the largest shore construction award in Coast Guard history. 

In Galveston, Texas, manufacturing of new Arctic national security cutters is underway.

Recruitment records were made as the Coast Guard continues efforts in other areas.

In August, the Coast Guard expanded maritime interdiction efforts in four major regions in U.S. coastal and international waters. It established four new “Customs Enforcement Areas,” expanding its enforcement jurisdiction from 12 to 24 nautical miles in designated waters adjacent to South Florida, Southern California, Puerto Rico and the Gulf Coast of Texas, The Center Square reported. 

Coast Guard crew are regularly interdicting human traffickers at sea and successfully interdicting transnational criminal narcotics traffickers, seizing records amounts of illicit drugs. In Operation Pacific Viper alone, Coast Guard crew seized 200,000 pounds of cocaine, The Center Square reported. 

They’ve also been interdicting alleged adversaries in the Arctic, including most recently, Chinese “research” ships off the coast of Alaska, The Center Square reported. 

Coast Guard crew also have been playing a role in border security. Recent efforts led to cartel operatives fired on them in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, resulting in U.S. troops being surged to the area, The Center Square reported.

In 2025, the Coast Guard covered 95,000 miles of coastline, saved more than $974 million in property and facilitated more than $5.4 trillion in commerce. 

They also stopped 231 narco-terrorists and interdicted more than 231 metric tons of drugs. 

They also completed more than 6,700 search and rescue missions and saved more than 5,200 lives, according to the most recent Coast Guard data. 

(The Center Square) – Whether the Sept. 29 executive order of second-term President Donald Trump related to computer systems, software and processes that can emulate aspects of human work and cognition changes vocabulary beyond his administration will be told with time.

For now, replacing the term “artificial intelligence” with “super intelligence” is his request. Writing on social media this week, Trump doubled down by saying anyone using “artificial intelligence” as opposed to “super intelligence” is an “enemy” of the White House.

Part of his reasoning is “use of the word artificial makes intelligence fake.”

Elon Musk, who changed SpaceXAI’s name to SpaceXSI, and Jeff Bezos backed the terminology change.

Executive Order 14434 says in part, “The terminology used by the federal government should reflect the transformative capabilities of these technologies and the limitless opportunities they create for the American people.”

Researchers and critics from within the field say “superintelligence” has historically described hypothetical, future artificial intelligence that surpasses human intelligence in all areas rather than current language models.

Two of the nation’s leading research institutions into artificial intelligence, and its impact on people, are at Elon University in North Carolina through the Imagining the Digital Future Center and the Elon Poll. Multiple research reports coupled with polling nationwide have been delivered this decade.

Lee Rainie, director of the Imagining the Digital Future Center, in a digital interview with The Center Square said, “I’m not sure rebranding AI as ‘super intelligence’ will move the needle on the public’s views. Our recent surveys have shown growing public apprehension about the impact of AI -- everything from job loss to the construction of data centers to the possibility that rogue AI agents might wreak havoc on human existence.

“There is a growing sense that AI is likely to undermine humans’ sense of purpose, agency and thinking. Our new survey about the future of work show how most foresee the spread of AI systems as a painful bargain. They predict fewer jobs, pay that falls short of a decent living and work that offers less meaning. At the same time, many are using AI and reporting good results from it at work and in their personal lives. It’s a very mixed and fluid picture.”

Renaming ultimatums are nothing new for the 80-year-old president.

A short list would be Mount Denali back to Mount McKinley; Lake Ontario to Lake America; Gulf of Mexico to Gulf of America; and the John F. Kennedy Memorial Center for the Performing Arts to Trump-Kennedy Center. Then there’s the Department of Defense back to Department of War, or the idea floated of Strait of Hormuz to Trump Strait.

Objectively, some not all have gained traction and some not all have experienced strong rejection.

(The Center Square) – Most American voters say U.S. consumers ultimately pay for tariffs, a new national poll found. The White House says foreign exporters do.

The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll found 58% of registered voters said U.S. consumers pay most of the cost of tariffs through higher prices. Sixteen percent said U.S. companies that import goods pay the tariffs, 15% said foreign countries or foreign companies do, and 11% weren’t sure.

Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 47% said U.S. consumers pay, more than double the 22% who said foreign countries do. The same group backed the tariffs 66% to 25% when asked whether they would support duties that helped protect some American industries but increased prices for U.S. households and businesses. Overall, voters split 42% support to 46% oppose.

“The Trump administration has consistently maintained that the cost of tariffs will ultimately be borne by foreign exporters who rely on access to the American economy, the world’s biggest and best consumer market,” White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told The Center Square.

Phillip W. Magness, a senior fellow and the David J. Theroux Chair in Political Economy at the Independent Institute, said the poll shows voters have it right.

“Americans have correctly detected that tariffs on imports come from their own wallets,” he told The Center Square.

The empirical literature on Trump’s tariffs has consistently found that upward of 90% of the burden falls on the U.S. economy, and mainly on consumers, Magness said.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated in February 2026 that foreign exporters absorb 5% of tariff costs and that U.S. consumers bear the rest through higher prices. CBO told Congress in May 2026 that more recent evidence indicated the foreign share may have risen to 10% to 15% by the end of 2025.

Magness said the 15% who named foreign countries are “almost certainly repeating something that they’ve heard from figures in the White House.”

He pointed to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Stephen Miran, who chaired the Council of Economic Advisers and served as a Federal Reserve governor. Magness said their argument rests on a misunderstanding of international trade theory and has found no empirical support in studies of tariff incidence.

The Tax Foundation estimates the current tariffs raise taxes by an average of $820 per household in 2026, down from about $1,000 in 2025. The Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act in February 2026.

The Center Square has asked the White House five times since May whether it has estimated what the tariffs cost American consumers, including four times since August about the cost to the average household. The White House has not answered.

The U.S. goods and services trade deficit fell 19.9% in the first eight months of 2026 compared with the same period last year, as exports rose 11.8% and imports 4.4%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. A White House official pointed to those figures.

That comparison runs against an inflated 2025 base, when importers rushed shipments ahead of the tariffs. BEA reported the monthly deficit at $105.6 billion in August 2026, up from $92.8 billion in July 2026.

Magness said the Republican numbers show voters are separating the policy from the explanation offered for it. Republicans “are not buying the White House’s talking points about foreigners paying for tariffs, even as many of them still back Trump’s policies in this arena for different reasons,” he said.

Support also varied by income. Voters earning less than $50,000 a year opposed the tariffs 48% to 36%, while voters earning more than $100,000 split 49% to 46% in favor.

Magness cautioned that the question’s reference to protecting American industries likely lifted support, noting that language about protection has historically boosted tariff numbers in polls. He said he expects support to fall as more Americans conclude the tariffs are not delivering that protection.

The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Oct. 5-7, surveying 2,527 registered U.S. voters. Respondents included 1136 Republicans, 1171 Democrats and 229 True Independents, (Independents who, when asked if they leaned towards one of the major parties, chose neither). The margin of error is plus or minus 1.95 percentage points.

The No. 5 Florida Gators walked into the Hearnes Center on Friday night with a 10-game win streak and didn't slow down, defeating Mizzou volleyball in a 25-13, 26-24, 25-13 sweep.

The Tigers' losing streak is up to three matches as they sit 8-8 with a 1-3 record in Southeastern Conference play.

Missouri hit .149 on attacks in the match with 29 kills and 15 errors. Florida recorded just three errors and added 44 kills for a .519 hit percentage. Missouri did not record a block in the match, and had three service aces with eight errors behind the line.

Kimani Johnson continues to lead the way for the Tigers on the court as she notched eight kills in 17 tries. Johnson has started to find her groove as the game appears to be slowing down a lot more for her.

"I think I'm starting to understand the game a little bit more," Johnson said in a press conference after the match. "How I can use my toolbox a little bit better, how I'm seeing the block, and just finding open spots on the court.

Florida middle blocker Alec Rothe got things going early for the Gators with three kills through the first 10 points of Set 1 to help Florida jump out to a 7-3 lead. Looking to pull away from Missouri, Florida was playing like the buzz saw that's been running through its opponents over its last 10 games.

After going down 7-3 early in Set 1, Missouri went on 3-0 run to keep things close and nearly made it a 4-0 run to get within a point of the Gators before a challenge reversed an out-of-bounds call. So instead of a 9-8 score, Florida led 10-7. An opportunity squandered, Missouri trailed the rest of the set, leading to the eventual 25-13 loss. The Tigers, did, however, make it tough for Florida to win the final point, a sign of things to come in Set 2.

And while Missouri tried to regroup before things really got out of hand, the fans in the Hearnes Center, which were loud to start the match, had gone silent.

Missouri started off Set 2 on the right foot, jumping out to a 5-2 lead behind a pair of kills from freshman standout Lydia Stahley. From there, Missouri clung onto a narrow lead until the media timeout. After a Kimani Johnson kill made it 13-10, Missouri looked like it would be the pace-setter this time around, but a 5-1 run from Florida — all via the kill — quickly shifted the momentum of the set as the two teams went to their benches.

The Tigers punched back with a 3-0 run, courtesy of Felder's rocket of a kill and Sierra Dudley getting an ace as Missouri jumped out in front 17-15. The two teams traded punches for the next handful of points, and after looking dead in the water after an ugly Set 1, Missouri was on the brink of tying it up.

Missouri then got to 23 after a Johnson kill, but Florida's Logan King came right back with her own to keep the two teams tied. Then, a Paige Felder kill put Missouri one point away from a Set 2 win, but Florida's timeout killed all momentum. Back-to-back Gator kills off the hands of blockers up front put Missouri on the ropes, and although Missouri coach Dawn Sullivan tried icing the Gators' server, it didn't work, and Florida took a commanding 2-0 lead over the Tigers with a 26-24 win.

"I thought our team played really well that set and really impressed," Sullivan said in a press conference after the match. "I think we have moments that we can play with any team. We just have to be able to be a little more consistent with what we do, and so (I) keep seeing glimpses of it, which I'm really excited about."

After the loss, the Tiger players showed one clear emotion – frustration. Florida, though, looked to slam the door shut, which is exactly what it did. The Gators got out to a 10-4 lead in the set and quickly forced a Sullivan timeout. But it was to no avail as Florida continued to put the hammer down on the Tigers as it led 16-6 before the gap briefly plateaued.

Then a 4-0 run made it 22-9, and Florida coasted to the sweep.

"Kudos to Florida," Sullivan said. "I though they just played a really clean volleyball game, and very strong both in reception and attack."

A point this season for Sullivan has been to serve tough. She felt her team early on did not serve tough and actually were playing out of system more often than they were in system, and they need to find their way back in system.

"I think it goes back to that reception piece, that first contact hit," Sullivan said. "How do we lift that ball up a little bit higher? How do we get that more into the pocket. Our setters are little bit too much on the run."

Missouri (8-8, 1-3 SEC) looks to get back on track as Auburn (11-5, 1-3) comes to town for a 2 p.m. match Sunday at the Hearnes Center.

GREAT FALLS, Mont. - A wildland fire burned off of Spring Trees Rd, west of Flood Rd near Great Falls on Thursday.

Cascade County Sheriff’s Department reported that the fire burned around 200 acres, and Montana DNRC sent a helicopter to work the fire.

There are currently no evacuations in place.

NonStop Local is reaching out to local fire departments to get more information, but a reporter on scene stated that crews were putting out hot spots when he arrived.

A red flag warning remains in effect for the area until 9 p.m. on October 9 due to low relative humidity and winds of 20-30 mph and gusts upwards of 50 mph. This combination can result in extreme fire weather.

(The Center Square) – A prominent labor union announced this week that its taxpayer-paid members voted to go on a one-day strike after negotiations with California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office stalled.

The differences are mostly over increased salaries for government workers, which would cost the state's taxpayers more money. It is unclear what the total monetary figure would be if the Newsom administration agreed to the union's demand to increase workers' pay by 7% this year, another 7% in 2027 and an additional 6% in 2028 - 20% during the next three years.

Economist Wayne Winegarden told The Center Square that the current demands for raise hikes would make things worse in a state with high taxes.

Approximately 96.2% of SEIU Local 1000’s 100,0000 members voted this week to authorize an unfair practice strike for Oct. 21, saying that state officials bargained in bad faith. "SEIU" stands for Service Employees International Union.

Worksite strike lines are scheduled in multiple cities across the state, including five in Sacramento and one each in Oakland, San Francisco, Fresno, Los Angeles, Norwalk, San Bernardino and San Diego.

Each strike line is scheduled to start at 7 a.m. on Oct. 21. 

Anica Walls, president of SEIU Local 1000, told The Center Square on Friday that the Newsom administration rejected all of the union’s proposals for the contract renewal.

“Our big-ticket items are general salary increases," Walls said.

Wallis added that the union's proposals include affordable healthcare to meet increased costs and a modernization of work "so we can efficiently and effectively continue to save the taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars."

But Winegarden, the economist, told The Center Square on Friday that he didn’t find that salary increases are financially sustainable for California’s taxpayers.

“The state has a spending problem,” said Winegarden, a senior fellow in business and economics at Pasadena, Calif.-based Pacific Research Institute. “If you look at the payment of government workers in California compared to every other state, they’re much better compensated. The idea that they’re striking in order to get 7% increase in pay for the next year and 20% over three years, these are unaffordable increases that if the state acquiesces, it’s the taxpayer who pays for it.”

California has some of the highest taxes in the country, Winegarden added. “This is just making it worse."

SEIU Local 1000's previous three-year labor contract was estimated to cost taxpayers an additional $1.5 billion when it was enacted in 2023, according to the California Legislative Analyst's Office. But a state budget crisis led to a delay in raises, and the union agreed to temporary pay cuts in June 2025.

The current contract expired June 30. The union said the Newsom administration waited until the last minute to reject the union’s proposals when negotiating contract renewal earlier this year, making members of the SEIU Local 1000 work without a contract for more than three months.

“CalHR remains ready to sit down anytime with the union to negotiate a fair and responsible agreement,” Angela Musallam, deputy director of communications for the California Department of Human Resources, told The Center Square via email on Friday. “The state remains focused on protecting the critical and essential services that Californians rely on.”

Newsom’s office did not comment for this story and instead referred The Center Square to the state Department of Human Resources.

The union represents employees of every state government department, according to the SEIU Local 1000 website, including workers in jobs that include nurses, information technology professionals, printers, educators, analysts and custodians, among many other jobs.

According to an information webpage about the strike, SEIU Local 1000 officials said any strike of this magnitude will be historic in California.

“California has never seen a strike this large involving the workers who keep the state running,” the union said on its website. “The Newsom administration can prevent this by coming to the table and bargaining in good faith. Administrations may change, but our demand will not: bargain fairly with the workers who keep California running.”

Under state law, employers can’t discipline or threaten employees who are members of a union and who participate in a strike, but employees who do participate won’t get paid while going on strike. They also can’t use vacation or sick time, according to the SEIU Local 1000.

The union has a strike fund to help offset financial losses to employees who go on strike, but the money isn’t meant to replace lost wages employees lose when striking. Rather, that money, which members pay in the form of union dues, is meant to pay for legal services to represent union members if they face retaliation from employers for going on strike.

​Meteorologists usually avoid exaggeration.

They focus on probabilities, model groups, and higher-than-normal rainfall. Instead of making predictions, they give outlooks and add warnings to forecasts that look months ahead.

But recently, their language has become much more dramatic, particularly when discussing the El Niño gathering strength in the Pacific. They’re calling it a “Super El Niño,” a “Godzilla El Niño,” and an “unprecedented event.”

El Niño is a naturally occurring warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern Pacific. The World Meteorological Organization warned earlier this year that El Niño could cause significant floods, drought, and extreme heat.

Forecasts are becoming even more extraordinary. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an 83% chance that this year’s El Niño could surpass every previous one recorded since 1950. The WMO also projects that temperatures in a key Pacific monitoring region could reach 3.7 degrees above normal, beating the previous record of 2.6 degrees set during the 2015-2015 El Niño. NOAA also expects strong to very strong El Niño conditions to persist well into early 2027, possibly setting the stage for an unusually extreme winter, although it's uncertain where the worst storms will hit.

A state of emergency for homeowners

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has already declared a state of emergency, even though El Niño hasn’t officially arrived yet.

For homeowners, businesses, and their insurance companies, the main concern is what will happen when El Niño arrives.

“This is shaping up to be an unusually strong El Niño, which is why you’re hearing the term ‘Super El Niño,’” Crystal Egger, president and meteorologist at Monarch Weather + Climate Intelligence, told Insurify.

But Egger cautions against interpreting a record-strength El Niño as a forecast for catastrophe everywhere.

El Niño, she explained, is about “shifting the odds.” It can make certain weather patterns and risks more likely, but predicting exactly where storms will hit or how much rain or snow each community will get is still difficult.

Shifting odds look different depending on where you live

According to Egger’s data, California and the Southwest face a higher risk of heavy rain, flooding, mudslides, and debris flows in the wake of El Niño. The Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, and Southeast could see wetter-than-normal conditions and increased water damage. Parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast could face heavy precipitation and coastal or inland flooding.

Meanwhile, parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern interior West may face the opposite problem: warmer, drier weather and continued drought.

This means some parts of the country may have to worry about too much water, while others will worry about not getting enough.

El Niño is a recurring climate pattern associated with unusually warm water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Changes in those ocean temperatures can alter atmospheric circulation and affect weather thousands of miles away.

This time, the ocean is particularly warm.

Egger said sea-surface temperatures in the affected region are running about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.

NOAA’s Sept. 10 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion reported that El Niño had strengthened during the previous month, with sea-surface temperature anomalies exceeding 3 degrees Celsius (37.4 Fahrenheit) in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Subsurface temperatures were also significantly above average.

NOAA’s latest seasonal outlook says an El Niño this strong makes the usual weather effects more likely, but they’re still not definite.

That’s an important qualification.

“The biggest lesson from the historical record is that strong El Niños can produce very significant weather impacts, but they don’t all look the same,” Egger said.

California may face too much of a good thing

California and the Southwest could be among the most closely watched regions this winter.

NOAA’s seasonal outlook favors above-normal precipitation across much of the southern tier of the country. Egger said this elicits worries about heavy rainfall, flooding, mudslides, and debris flows in California and the Southwest.

The risk can be especially acute in areas previously affected by wildfires, as the fires could have removed the vegetation and altered the soil, leaving hillsides less able to absorb water when heavy rain arrives.

For homeowners, this means regular fall tasks like clearing gutters, checking drainage, inspecting roofs, and checking retaining walls become much more important.

It also raises an insurance problem.

Standard homeowners insurance generally covers damage from wind and rain entering a house because of covered storm damage, but it doesn’t cover flooding. Homeowners generally need a separate flood policy through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) or a private insurer for that protection.

And homeowners shouldn’t assume they’re safe simply because their property isn’t in a high-risk flood zone. Flooding can occur well away from rivers, coastlines, and designated high-risk areas.

Mud creates another potential coverage complication. NFIP policies can cover “mudflow,” generally involving a riverlike flow of liquid and mud across normally dry land. But the federal policy excludes landslides and other forms of earth movement.

The South and East could get wetter, too

Egger said some of the strongest probabilities for above-normal precipitation extend along the eastern Gulf Coast and Southeast coast, including Florida.

The wetter signal may also extend northward.

“That doesn’t mean a constant stream of storms,” Egger said of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. But the pattern could create more opportunities for heavy precipitation and coastal or inland flooding.

For homeowners, repeated storms could cause wind damage, falling trees, roof damage, and wind-driven rain that forces water into structures.

The Northwest may have the opposite problem

The same climate pattern that increases rainfall odds across the southern U.S. can have almost the reverse effect farther north.

El Niño winters are often warmer and drier across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern interior West. Egger said parts of that region can expect below-normal levels of precipitation this winter.

What homeowners can do before the weather arrives

For homeowners, preparing for the weather ahead depends on where they live.

Experts say homeowners in wetter-risk areas can inspect roofs, clean gutters and drainage systems, trim vulnerable trees, and consult a professional to determine whether their property is susceptible to flooding.

They can also review their insurance before a storm appears in a seven-day forecast.

That’s particularly important for flood insurance, since NFIP policies generally have a 30-day waiting period before coverage takes effect. Buying a policy when a major storm is already approaching may be too late.

Business owners can similarly review commercial property, flood, and business interruption coverage to determine whether their policies address the particular hazards most likely in their region.

Egger’s advice is considerably less dramatic than the “Super” and “Godzilla” labels surrounding this El Niño.

She says to prepare for the risks most likely where you live, but don’t treat a seasonal outlook as a prediction of a specific disaster.

“El Niño doesn’t mean the entire country is going to have a bad winter,” Egger said. “It changes the odds, making certain types of weather more likely in certain parts of the country.”

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