Warming El Nino set to return in mid-2026: UN

Heating with geothermal energy, lighting with solar panels, cooking with biodegradable waste: how can we live with less oil and gas?

It's a long-burning question -- but one that is catching fire as energy costs soar due to the conflict in the Middle East, which has strangled exports of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

With the global energy shock caused by the conflict expected to linger, AFP's video journalists around the world have explored how countries are experimenting with the climate transition.

- Geothermal in France -

For a long time, the owners of the building where Anne Chatelain lives near Paris resisted switching from gas heating to geothermal energy. 

But on January 1 they finally began heating their homes using the natural heat from the subsoil -- the soil immediately beneath the surface. 

As energy bills soar elsewhere in the world, "Our property manager has announced a 20 percent reduction in heating and hot water bills for 2026 and 2027," rejoices the 69-year-old retiree.

The tech is both climate-friendly and, as a local resource, "not subject to taxation and geopolitical upheavals" such as the war with Iran, says Gregory Mascarau, a Paris director for the French multinational electric utility company ENGIE.

Shallow geothermal energy allows for heating and cooling by using the temperature of the subsoil at depths of less than 200 meters (650 feet). 

Deep geothermal energy involves extracting hot water from depths of 1,000 to 2,000 metres, where its temperature ranges from 80C to 150C.

Since 2023 it has resulted in roughly 25-30 percent savings compared to the cost of heat provided by fossils fuels, says Ludovic Feron, head of the real estate infrastructure department at Gustave Eiffel University.  

The catch is that a suitable subsoil is required, and that deep geothermal energy in particular can be hampered by high costs and uncertainties. 

In France, this type of heating represents only about one percent of final heat consumption -- for now.

- 'Green coal' in Chad -

It looks like charcoal, but the black briquettes are actually made from plant waste: millet and sesame stalks, palm fronds and cobs. 

The residues are sorted, ground and mixed with a maceration of gum arabic to facilitate ignition, and with clay to slow combustion.

"It doesn't smoke, it lasts, and it's economical. And I can see that it doesn't blacken the pot, and there aren't even any side effects," says Sophie Saboura, 24, a resident of the Chadian capital N'Djamena.

The briquettes last up to three times longer than traditional charcoal, according to Ousmane Alhadj Oumarou, technical director of the Raikina Association for Socio-Economic Development (Adser) factory. 

"From an environmental standpoint, eco-friendly charcoal contributes to sanitation. And it also reduces the effects of climate change. It also helps combat deforestation," says Oumarou.

Adser produces about 10 tonnes of briquettes, used for cooking, every day -- but they aren't available everywhere. 

"There are limits to its use. Because even the manufacturing process takes time ... it can take a week," says Pierre Garba, a renewable energy specialist. 

"Sometimes, when there's demand, you try calling, you wait, and wait, and wait," confirms Saboura.

- Solar in Pakistan  -

The aerial view of Islamabad is striking: solar panels stretch as far as the eye can see from the rooftops of the lush, green Pakistani capital. 

Pakistan's shift to solar power is "one of the fastest consumer-led energy transitions on record", according to a recent study by a Pakistani think tank. 

Unlike Western economies, Pakistan -- whose citizens have long struggled with energy shortages, blackouts and regular loadshedding -- did not impose tariffs on solar technology from neighbouring China from 2013 to 2025. 

The rise in oil and gas prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has also spurred consumers to embrace solar power. 

Imports have surged from one gigawatt in 2018 to 51 gigawatts this year.

In the bustling streets of the ancient Mughal city of Lahore, Pakistan's cultural capital, 49-year-old shopkeeper Aftab Ahmed is looking for solar panels to install at his home. 

"It has become so expensive that an average person can no longer afford fuel for a motorcycle or a car. Fuel prices are also affecting electricity bills, leading to further increases," he says. 

Solar power offers the possibility of "at least some savings".

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Despite heightened security measures, Jewish residents in northwest London remain on "high alert" after a spate of arson attacks on synagogues and community sites in recent weeks.

So far there have been no casualties. But since the first antisemitic attack in late March -- when ambulances belonging to the Jewish volunteer emergency service Hatzola were set ablaze in Golders Green -- other incidents have followed.

There was an attack on the Kenton United Synagogue in northwest London as well as the premises of a Jewish charity. And last week, the Finchley Reform Synagogue was targeted in an area of the UK capital home to a large Jewish population.

The Finchley building, which also houses a nursery, is protected by towering metal fences and daytime security guards, whose hours have been extended, Zoe Jacobs, a cantor who leads Jewish prayers and songs at the synagogue, told AFP.

"There's anxiety, particularly among our younger members, but I would also say that there's incredible resilience.

"It's a difficult situation when someone tries to attack a place that feels like your home," she added.

Police have arrested 25 people in connection with the attacks, which began after the US-Israel strikes on Iran since February 28.

While the motive remains unclear, police are investigating a claim of responsibility by a little-known group calling itself Harakat al‑Yamin al‑Islamiyya (Hayi), believed to be pro-Iranian.

Visiting the targeted Kenton synagogue on Thursday, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he was "increasingly concerned that a number of countries are using proxies for attacks" in Britain.

- 'High alert' -

Most of those arrested are young men. A 17-year-old has admitted responsibility for the attempted arson at the Harrow synagogue.

"Individuals carrying out these crimes often have no allegiance to the cause and are taking quick cash for their crimes," said deputy assistant police commander Vicki Evans.

On Sunday, she warned people not to get involved, saying "the stakes are high -- and it is absolutely not worth the risk for a small reward".

Not far from the Finchley synagogue, along Ballards Lane, lies a large Iranian diaspora community. Many shops prominently display the lion-emblazoned flag associated with the former monarchy, a symbol showing opposition the the current ruling political system.

"Everything that is happening, it affects both of us actually, because it's not only them being attacked," said Sima Darafsheh, who runs a butcher shop with her husband, and whose son attends a Jewish school.

"Most Iranians who support Reza Shah have been attacked," she said, referring to Reza Pahlavi, the US-based son of Iran's late shah.

British intelligence services have repeatedly warned of threats by Iranian authorities against opponents based in the UK.

The London offices of Iran International, an opposition Persian-language TV channel, was among the targets of the recent attacks.

A few streets away, in Golders Green, kosher restaurants and shops remain busy. But there is a sense of unease.

"I'm definitely on high alert the whole time, and I think it's a very sad feeling, knowing that I have to live in fear when I'm walking around something that should be safe," said Sarah, a 20‑year‑old student who declined to give her surname.

- 'No higher walls' -

"At the moment, we're all ... very cautious of our surroundings," said Jack Hur, who runs a kosher grocery store.

The Jewish school where his wife teaches now escorts pupils to and from public transport.

He is also "a lot more cautious" about wearing visible religious symbols outdoors.

"I don't have the biggest amount of confidence in the UK police force at the moment," he admitted, regretting the lack of more armed officers.

That feeling was shared by Rabbi David Rose, who said anxiety has been rising since the deadly October 7, 2023 Hamas attack in southern Israel, which triggered the devastating Gaza war.

"Recently, people are feeling a certain sense of unease and that we feel the authorities should be doing more to protect the Jewish community," he told AFP, seated with his family in a restaurant.

Raymond Simonson, director of the JW3 cultural centre south of Golders Green, praised the support from the authorities.

"But we don't want to end up having to build higher fences and higher walls and bigger security," he said.

"That's not the support we want. What we want from government, what we want from the authorities, is to get to the root of this evil in our society, which is not just against the Jewish community, it is against British society."

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The El Nino weather phenomenon, which pushed global temperatures to record highs the last time around, is expected to return in mid-2026, the UN said Friday.

The United Nations' weather and climate agency said El Nino conditions could well develop as early as May to July.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) meanwhile said early signs indicated a particularly strong event.

El Nino is a naturally-occurring climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.

Conditions oscillate between El Nino and its opposite La Nina, with neutral conditions in between.

The last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high.

"After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year... there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification," said Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, the WMO's climate prediction chief.

El Nino typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months.

The WMO said in its latest monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update that sea surface temperatures are rising rapidly in the equatorial Pacific, "pointing to a likely return of El Nino conditions as early as May-July."

Forecasts indicate a "nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures" in the next three months.

- Temperature spike -

"There is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events," the Geneva-based WMO said. "But it can amplify associated impacts."

The WMO explained that 2024 was the hottest year ever recorded "because of the combination of the powerful 2023-2024 El Nino and human-induced climate change from greenhouse gases".

While forecasting accuracy improves after April, "what we can say for certain is that the El Nino will be strong", Moufouma-Okia said.

El Nino is typically associated with increased rainfall in southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia, and drought over Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.

Warmer water can fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific during the middle of the year, though it hinders hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin.

The WMO hopes advance warning will guide preparedness, especially in climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, water management, energy and health.

The WMO's April Global Seasonal Climate Update said that for May to July, land surface temperatures are expected to be above normal nearly everywhere.

The signals are especially strong over southern North America, Central America, and the Caribbean, as well as Europe and Northern Africa.

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German carmaker Porsche announced on Friday the sale of its stakes in sports car manufacturer Bugatti Rimac to a consortium led by a US fund founded by the Egyptian billionaire Sawiris family.

The amount of the transaction, which still has to be approved by regulators, has not been disclosed.

The announcement comes after the German luxury car brand warned it would face a difficult year under pressure from competitors and US tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.

Under the terms of the agreement, Porsche will sell all of its 45 percent stake in Bugatti Rimac, a joint venture founded in 2021 with Croatian "supercar" manufacturer Rimac, which holds the remaining 55 percent.

"Following completion, Rimac Group is set to take control of Bugatti Rimac and form a strategic partnership with HOF Capital and BlueFive Capital to support its continued growth," according to a statement from the German carmaker.

Porsche, which is part of the Volkswagen Group, will also sell its 20.6 percent stake in Rimac Group.

Last month, Porsche chief Michael Leiters said the company was facing "tricky times" after sales fell below expectations.

Porsche has struggled with years of falling sales in China amid fierce competition from local rivals as well as US tariffs.

Trump's tariffs have hit the firm particularly badly since it has no plants in the United States.

"In setting up the joint venture Bugatti Rimac together with Rimac Group, we successfully laid the foundation for Bugatti's future," Leiters said in Friday's statement.

"Now, with the sale of our stake, we demonstrate that we will focus Porsche on the core business."

HOF Capital will additionally join Rimac Group as the major shareholder alongside Mate Rimac, founder of Rimac and CEO of Bugatti Rimac.

The consortium led by HOF Capital -- founded by the Egyptian billionaire Sawiris family -- has BlueFive Capital as its main investor, along with a group of institutional investors from the United States and the European Union.

After regulatory clearances, the deal is expected to be finalised before the end of the year. 

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French President Emmanuel Macron denied Friday that a troubled fighter jet programme with Germany was dead, telling reporters Paris and Berlin were still working on that and other defence projects.

The multi-billion-euro project has faltered as disagreements persist between the firms involved -- France's Dassault Aviation and Airbus, which represents Germany and Spain.

Speaking ahead of a EU summit in Cyprus, Macron said that after morning talks with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the pair had instructed their respective defence ministries to carry on work on a range of issues, including the fighter jet. 

"No, not at all," Macron replied, asked by a journalist whether the European FCAS warplane programme was dead in the water. 

"We had a good discussion this morning with the Chancellor and we have instructed our defence ministries to work on a number of areas, covering various topics –- not just the fighter jet," Macron said. 

"We are continuing to move forward. Europe has never needed unity, greater independence and greater sovereignty more than it does now," he added. 

The Future Combat Air System (FCAS) programme was launched in 2017 to replace France's Rafale jets and the Eurofighter planes used by Germany and Spain.

It is often seen as a bellwether of defence and security cooperation between France and Germany as the two EU powerhouses seek to put up a united front in the face of a hostile Russia and wavering US security commitment.

Mediators tasked with salvaging the struggling initiative requested ten more days to deliver their conclusions, the French government said this week after reports suggesting the effort had failed to bear fruit. 

A German government spokeswoman confirmed Macron and Merz discussed the fighter jet programme Friday morning and instructed defence ministers to continue work "on various aspects of cooperation and to agree on the next steps." 

"This work will be completed in the coming weeks," she said. 

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Greece on Friday named over 250 beaches in environmentally important areas that must be left in their natural state, amid ongoing efforts to limit the impact of overtourism in its multi-billion-euro travel industry.

The initiative bans the use of umbrellas and sunbeds for hire in areas both on the mainland and islands, including many protected marine Natura 2000 sites, some of whom are vital grounds for endangered species such as loggerhead turtles and monk seals.

The initiative "seeks to ensure the effective protection of beaches that have particular aesthetic, geomorphological, or ecological value, as well as the preservation of the habitat types and the plant and animal species found on these specific beaches," the government said in a ministerial decision.

The updated list for 2026 includes 251 beaches compared to 238 last year, and 198 in 2024.

Amid growing concerns over the impact of overtourism on Greece's natural environment, authorities in recent years have dismantled illegal construction on coasts.

On Thursday, crews accompanied by riot police tore down beachfront shacks on the small island of Gavdos south of Crete that the local municipality had deemed a fire risk.

There was also controversy last year on the island of Milos over hotel construction near one of Greece's most famous beaches, the volcanic rock site of Sarakiniko.

In December, several mayors from the Cyclades and Dodecanese warned that overtourism was threatening the "very existence" of the islands.

Greece in 2025 set new records for tourist arrivals and revenue, the country's central bank said in February, with nearly 38 million travellers not counting cruise ship traffic.

The conservative government has also announced the creation and expansion of national marine parks, but has also come under criticism over deals for gas drilling in the Ionian Sea and south of Crete.

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Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez on Friday stressed his country was a "reliable member" of NATO, after a report the United States was considering possibly trying to expel Spain over its refusal to support operations in the Middle East war.

The Reuters news agency cited an anonymous US official telling it that the Pentagon had outlined the expulsion option in an email looking at ways to punish NATO allies that steered clear of the US-Israeli war against Iran.

"Spain is a reliable member within NATO" which is fulfilling all its obligations, Sanchez told reporters in Cyprus, where he was attending an EU summit.

"As a result, I am absolutely not worried," he said.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly railed against NATO allies for refusing to join the war, saying he viewed it as a betrayal. 

Some of them -- France, Spain and Italy -- did not allow US military aircraft deployed for the war to overfly their territories or to use bases. Britain initially also refused, but later allowed US flights from its bases for "defensive" missions in the conflict.

Trump also tried, in vain, to get European NATO members to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed with military threats and attacks.

Washington's expectation that NATO members' facilities and territories should be available to the US without question has added to strains within the alliance, which Trump has taken to calling a "paper tiger".

Sanchez added in Cyprus that "we don't work on the basis of emails, we work off official documents and the position that the United States government has set out in this case".

He added that his government's stance was "absolute cooperation with allies, but always within the bounds of international law".

NATO is to hold its next summit in Turkey on July 7-8.

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From the world's first drive and dump car seat to the secret sauce that makes salmon leap. Your weekly roundup of offbeat stories from around the world.

- Salmon's a bit high -

Salmon can swim almost twice as far if there is cocaine in the water, scientists have discovered.

More and more of the drug is getting into rivers and streams as human consumption of the stimulant hits new highs. And the result is not to be snorted at.

Researchers at Australia's Griffith University and the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences found wild salmon exposed to cocaine swam 1.9 times further than their clean-living cousins.

Which may explain why they are always swimming against the tide and trying to jump up waterfalls.

Scientists were unable to say whether coked-up fish thought they were smarter, sexier and better dancers than other salmon, though we can safely make the leap.

- Everybody dance now -

It might be interesting to test the water some politicians have been swimming in given the groovy moves world leaders have been throwing lately.

US President Donald Trump found time from posting memes of himself as "Doctor Jesus" healing the sick to dust off his "YMCA" dance moves for supporters, while Hungarian politician Zsolt Hegedus stole the show on election night in Budapest with his zany display of dad dancing as he celebrated the ousting of Viktor Orban.

But Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has bested them both, drumming up support for his re-election run by touring the country with his newly-formed rock band.

The 50-year-old took up drumming last year and has since been putting the percussion into politics, with a string of gigs billed as "We play, you dance".

While Pashinyan is no Phil Collins, he does write his own songs. It can only be a matter of time before he forms a trio with Vladimir Putin -- who famously serenaded Sharon Stone with "Blueberry Hill" -- and Turkenistan's Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, who likes to rap about his favourite horse.

- It'll drive you potty -

A Chinese carmaker has patented an on-the-go toilet aimed at drivers who might be caught short on long journeys.

The voice-controlled loo is concealed beneath a sliding car seat that springs into action with the magic words, "Start up toilet function." 

The design by electric vehicle maker Seres even has a fan and exhaust pipe to get rid of whiffy odours.

- Creeping train -

First there was "Snakes On A Plane", now German railways have gone one better than the Hollywood film with tarantulas on a train.

A driver found a parcel packed with 20 live tarantula spiders on his train in Stuttgart. Police said it was labelled "Spiders and Scorpions" and that a 31-year-old woman forgot them as she rushed to get off at a station but returned later to pick them up.

- Lots of time off now -

A Frenchman wrote 44,000 fake sick notes for people to get time off work before being caught, police say.

The 25-year-old made nearly one million euros in a matter of months posing as a doctor online and charging 21 euros a go, they said.

He is now facing 10 years of enforced leave himself -- behind bars -- with the French government less than happy about having to pick the tab for the sick pay.  

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After weathering unprecedented attacks from Iran, the wealthy Gulf states are now stuck between war and peace as talks stall and the vital Strait of Hormuz remains all but closed -- threatening economic recovery.

Iran has hit Gulf energy exports with its Strait of Hormuz blockade, while its attacks have caused damage to energy infrastructure that could take months or more to repair. 

Even as a shaky ceasefire holds, the threat of renewed strikes looms over the region's economy beyond oil, threatening diversification ambitions in the Gulf, long touted as a safe haven for visitors and business.

It is unclear whether stalled talks, so far centred around the Strait of Hormuz and uranium enrichment, will produce a deal addressing the Gulf's main concerns: stripping Iran of its control over the key waterway and keeping its missiles and proxies in check. 

The longer the Gulf's fate remains uncertain, the longer economic recovery will take, and analysts warn that the traditional US allies will struggle to influence Washington's decisions when it comes to war and peace.

- Unpaid leave -

"If this goes on for quite a long time with the Strait of Hormuz blocked, some of those states are going to suffer huge blows. And they already have," said Dania Thafer, director of the Gulf International Forum research institute. 

Qatar has already stopped liquefied natural gas production and, along with energy producers in Kuwait and Bahrain, declared force majeure.

In Dubai, unusually light traffic and deserted tourist areas tell the tale of a city still waiting for a return to normality.

Weeks into a fragile truce, the initial shock has subsided, with children returning to school in the UAE and Qatar after more than a month of distance learning.

But some are still following classes online after many families fled. UAE schools have put drills in place for security incidents.

One luxury hotel employee said some staff have put on unpaid leave, while an employee at a beauty salon said salaries had also been slashed.

Half of the Gulf countries are expecting a contraction this year, while slowed growth is projected for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Big, oil-rich countries with deep pockets can boost their economies again, but these prospects hinge on how long the crisis lasts and whether a final resolution can provide assurances for the future, Jihad Azour of the International Monetary Fund told AFP.

- 'Worse case scenario' -

The Hormuz blockade has exposed most of the Gulf's dependance on the key waterway.

But even for countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which have access to pipelines that allow some of their exports to bypass the waterway, diversification efforts are at risk.

Stability is key to attract talent and tourists, but also achieve their goal of becoming major hubs for artificial intelligence expertise and data centres.

"The US has really opened a Pandora's box for the Gulf states," Thafer said.

If Iran is allowed to maintain "a veto over their economies indefinitely" through its control of Hormuz, she added, that would be "an extremely challenging and vulnerable situation for the Gulf".

Israel is not at the negotiating table and could still upend any deal.

"Is Israel going to continue to 'mow the lawn' in Iran?" Thafer said, referring to the strategy of repeated, periodic attacks.

"And is Iran going to turn around and close the Strait of Hormuz or attack the Gulf states' economies?.

"This is the worst case scenario: instability ensuing around the Gulf states and no end to this crisis."

- 'Face-saving exit' -

Gulf states remain divided over the war and on Iran. The UAE, which Iran has struck most frequently, has had a more hawkish stance and expressed maximalist demands for any deal, while Saudi Arabia has supported mediator Pakistan's efforts.

"Iran had a calibrated strategy: striking Gulf states to different degrees and creating varying degree of threat perceptions towards Iran," according to Thafer.

And despite close ties to Trump, who was given a hero's welcome last May during his Gulf tour, the monarchies have found themselves on the sidelines of the talks despite being in the firing line.

"The Gulf states have struggled to shape the Trump administration's behaviour toward Iran," said Hasan Alhasan of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

"They did not want the US to initiate war against Iran -– which it did -– and it's no surprise that they are unable to get Washington to prioritise their own security interests in the negotiations," as Trump seeks what he Alhasan called a "face-saving exit".

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Prices of rubber products have shot up due to supply chain disruptions stemming from the Middle East war, the world's largest condom maker and a leading glove manufacturer, both based in Malaysia, said on Friday.

Karex, which supplies condoms for brands like Trojan and Durex, said it had to increase prices by up to 30 percent, while global supplier Top Glove said the main material for synthetic rubber gloves had doubled in cost.

Much of Malaysia's rubber industry relies on oil to produce goods, but supply has been scarce since Iran imposed a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth of global crude and liquefied natural gas passes in peacetime.

The closure, which began after the United States and Israel launched strikes on February 28, has also affected raw material costs and disrupted global shipping.

"We continue to experience longer lead times from suppliers, increased price volatility and higher freight costs," Karex chief executive Goh Miah Kiat said.

"In the meantime, we are also holding more key raw materials critical for business operations, and hence requiring the need to increase costs by up to 30 percent," Goh told AFP in an email.

A crucial raw material affected, silicone oil, is "used in every condom", Karex said.

Karex makes more than five billion condoms yearly, helping to prevent unintended pregnancies and sexually transmitted diseases across the globe. It provides condoms to organisations such as Britain's National Health Service and the World Health Organisation.

The prices of other Karex products, from personal lubricants and probe covers to catheters and aluminium foil packaging, have also increased, Goh said.

Costs have been affected "across the board", including the price of condom material nitrile latex and natural rubber.

Top Glove, one of the world's leading manufacturers of rubber gloves, said it was particularly hard hit by a sharp hike in the price of nitrile butadiene rubber "which has increased by more than 100 percent, reflecting tight supply".

"For natural rubber gloves, input costs have risen by approximately 30 percent, as natural rubber is a traded commodity which is impacted by the uptrend in crude oil prices," the company added.

Top Glove supplies 95 billion gloves per year to more than 2,000 customers worldwide.

Both manufacturers said the supply of their main products remained stable.

"However, longer ship lead times are causing lower inventory levels at our customers' end, and certain condom manufacturers are facing challenges in production," Karex's Goh said.

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