UK inflation jumps as Mideast war propels energy prices

A French teenager has been charged with mischief and public nuisance in Singapore for licking a straw and putting it back in an orange juice vending machine, court documents showed Monday.

Didier Gaspard Owen Maximilien, 18, allegedly filmed himself "licking a straw and placing it back at the vending machine", uploaded the video on Instagram knowing that it "would or would probably cause annoyance to the public", according to the documents.

The teenager is studying in Singapore, according to court records.

The public nuisance offence carries a jail term of up to three months and a fine.

A second charge of committing mischief said Maximilien knew that he was "likely to cause wrongful loss or damage" to iJooz, the company operating the vending machine which had to replace all 500 straws in the dispenser.

The mischief offence carries a punishment of up to two years in jail on conviction and a fine, according to the charge sheet.

Both offences were allegedly committed on March 12.

The charges were lodged before a district court last Friday, and the next hearing will be on May 22.

The Straits Times newspaper said the video "quickly went viral, sparking shock and concern among netizens".

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Iran's top diplomat blamed Washington on Monday for the failure of talks after landing in Russia as part of a whirlwind diplomatic tour, with direct negotiations between the warring parties seemingly at an impasse.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made the remarks in Saint Petersburg, where he is expected to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, having sandwiched a trip to Oman in between visits to main mediator Pakistan over the past few days.

Islamabad played host to the first and only round of unsuccessful talks between Washington and Tehran, and Araghchi's visit had fanned hopes for fresh negotiations over the weekend, until US President Donald Trump scrapped a planned trip by his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

"The US approaches caused the previous round of negotiations, despite progress, to fail to reach its goals because of the excessive demands," Araghchi said Monday.

After calling off his emissaries' trip, Trump told Fox News that if Iran wanted talks, "they can come to us, or they can call us", though he has said the cancellation does not signal a return to hostilities.

In a sign that backchannel efforts were ongoing, the Fars news agency said Iran had passed "written messages" to the Americans via Pakistan spelling out red lines, including nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz.

Fars news agency said the messages were not part of formal negotiations, however.

US media outlet Axios -- citing a US official and two other sources with knowledge of the matter -- reported on Sunday that Iran had sent a new proposal to end the war centred on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending a US naval blockade there, with nuclear negotiations postponed for a later stage. 

Iranian state news agency IRNA cited the report without denying it.

- Global issue -

The ceasefire in the US-Israeli war with Iran has so far held, but its economic shock waves have continued to reverberate globally.

Iran has blockaded the strait, cutting off flows of oil, gas and fertiliser and sending prices soaring, raising fears of food insecurity in developing countries. 

In response, the US has imposed a blockade of Iranian ports in the waterway and beyond.

Trump faces domestic pressure as fuel prices rise following Iran's closure of Hormuz, with midterm elections due in November. Polls show the war is unpopular among Americans.

The subject of the strait was on the agenda during Araghchi's trip to Oman, which lies on the other side of the waterway from Iran.

"The safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is an important global issue. Naturally, as the two coastal countries of this strait, we must speak with each other so that our common interests are secured," Araghchi said from Saint Petersburg.

Russian and Iranian state media confirmed Araghchi would speak with Putin, citing officials from their respective governments.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards, however, have said they have no intention of lifting their market-shaking blockade, saying control of the Hormuz "and maintaining the shadow of its deterrent effects over America... is the definitive strategy" of Tehran.

Oil prices were creeping up again on Monday, though lingering hopes that a deal can eventually be reached have tempered the gains.

- Violence in Lebanon -

Violence, meanwhile, has continued on the war's Lebanese front, in spite of a recently extended ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah. 

The two sides traded blame over violations on Sunday, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying the military was "vigorously" targeting the group as both sides claimed new attacks.

Hezbollah drew Lebanon into the Middle East war on March 2 by firing rockets at Israel to avenge the death of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei, with Israel responding with strikes and a ground invasion.

Netanyahu told a weekly cabinet meeting that Hezbollah's actions were "dismantling the ceasefire", while Hezbollah vowed to respond to Israeli violations and its "continued occupation".

Lebanon's health ministry said Israeli strikes on the country's south on Sunday killed 14 people, the deadliest day since the truce came into force. 

AFP correspondents reported heavy traffic heading north as people fled following the warning and intensified raids.

Israel also reported a soldier killed in combat in south Lebanon. 

The country maintains that under the terms of the truce, it can act against "planned, imminent or ongoing attacks".

"This means freedom of action not only to respond to attacks... but also to pre-empt immediate threats and even emerging threats," Netanyahu said. 

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Backflipping down a steep and sandy mountainside, Afghan teenager Imran Saeedi wows the crowds of men who gather each springtime to unwind beside breathtaking views.

Hundreds of visitors travel each weekend to Reg-e-Rawan -- "the moving sands" in Dari -- to practice parkour or roll down the honey-coloured sand in Kapisa province.

"I feel afraid when I'm going for a flip or a jump, and of course I can get injured," said 16-year-old Saeedi, who nonetheless loves the thrill. 

"When the week starts, I'm just waiting for the weekend so I can come to Reg-e-Rawan to have fun again," said the high school student.

Men and boys clapped in admiration as he ran down the hill and flipped forwards, then backwards, while his friends filmed on their phones. 

Less daring onlookers sat atop rocks surrounding the mountain, picnicking together and enjoying the scenery.

Reg-e-Rawan is off limits to women and girls, who are banned by the Taliban authorities from recreational spots such as parks.

Families with women were turned away when AFP journalists visited, while officials under the Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice patrolled the area.

- 'Humans need nature' -

Mirwais Kamran, a 48-year-old businessman, had driven three hours north from the capital Kabul with some of his 12 children.

"I feel joy when I come here with my children and friends," said Kamran, who climbed up the slope but stopped short of rolling down.

Nusratullah Nusrat, the provincial head of tourism at the Kapisa Department of Information and Culture, said the site dates back thousands of years. 

"The unique feature of this place is that the sand never decreases despite people climbing up and sliding down," he told AFP. 

Some people believe rolling in the sand also helps treat rheumatism, added Nusrat. 

For visitors such as Nohzatullah Ahmadzai, who travelled from Kabul with a group of friends, Reg-e-Rawan lifts his mood.

"I'm someone who gets depressed when I'm sad, so visiting such places erases that feeling," said the 22-year-old, who works for a cargo firm. 

Climbing the slope takes about an hour, rewarding visitors with views over green fields dotted with villages. 

"We humans need nature," said Ahmadzai. "When we feel stressed, we can visit natural places for relaxation or relief." 

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A Japanese startup has filed for approval of a new drug to treat chronic kidney disease in cats, the founder said on Monday, offering hope for a common affliction that currently has no definitive cure.

The Tokyo-based Institute for AIM Medicine filed the treatment with the agriculture ministry on Friday, researcher Toru Miyazaki said, after a trial showed the drug significantly extended the life of afflicted cats.

"Most cats suffer from chronic kidney disease, and many die from end-stage renal failure or uraemia," Miyazaki, a former professor of the University of Tokyo, told AFP. 

"We undertook drug development with the aim of overcoming this situation and alleviating the financial and physical burden on both cats and their owners," he said.

Miyazaki's research came under spotlight five years ago when he had to halt the development of the drug due to a shortage of research funding during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Following media reports, he received a flood of donations from cat lovers and owners totalling nearly 300 million yen ($2 million) between 2021 and 2022.

Chronic kidney disease is common among older cats, affecting up to 40 percent of felines aged more than 10, and 80 percent of those over 15, according to Cornell Feline Health Center in the US.

It is "a progressive disease with no definitive cure", the center said.

Miyazaki's study, published in the Veterinary Journal in February, tracked 11 cats that received the treatment and 15 non-treated cats for a year.

The cumulative survival rate for the treated cats was between 80 and 83 percent, while it was 20 percent for the non-treated cats.

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A technician was killed on Sunday in Rio de Janeiro setting up a stage where pop superstar Shakira is set to perform a free concert this week, authorities and organizers said. 

Crews have been working for weeks to assemble a stage on the sands of the Brazilian city's Copacabana beach, where crowds are expected from around the world to see the Colombian singer perform on May 2 as part of her record-breaking world tour.

The man suffered crushing injuries to his legs in a lifting system, the fire department said in a statement.

Workers managed to free the man and he was taken to hospital, but he did not survive, the state fire department (CBMERJ) said.

"Unfortunately, the technician passed away in hospital," concert organizer Bonus Track said in a statement.

"Out of nowhere, we saw people running, and when we looked, the structure was on the ground," Antonio Marcos Ferreira dos Santos, 51, who was on the beach at the time, told AFP.

"People were saying that a man had gotten trapped underneath. People rushed over to pull him out."

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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has reaffirmed Pyongyang's support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, vowing to help Moscow achieve victory in its "sacred" war, state media reported on Monday.

Pyongyang has sent missiles, munitions and thousands of troops to assist Russia in Ukraine, and analysts say Moscow is sending financial aid, military technology, food and energy to the diplomatically isolated country in return.

A string of high-level Russian officials have visited North Korea in recent days, with Defence Minister Andrey Belousov meeting Kim on Sunday, according to official statements.

North Korea "will as ever fully support the policy of the Russian Federation to defend the national sovereignty, territorial integrity and security interests", Kim told Belousov, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

Kim expressed "belief that the Russian army and people would surely win a victory in the just sacred war", KCNA reported.

Both sides said their delegations had discussed deeper military ties, with Belousov saying Moscow was ready to sign a cooperation plan covering the period from 2027 to 2031.

Kim, Belousov and Russian parliamentary speaker Vyacheslav Volodin also attended the opening ceremony of a memorial complex honouring North Korean soldiers killed in Ukraine.

In a speech, Kim paid tribute to their "unrivalled bravery, mass heroism, indomitable fighting spirit and noble sacrifice", KCNA said.

He took part in a ceremony to bury the war dead, recalling their "last heroic moments" and covering the remains of a soldier with earth.

The inauguration also included a concert, a fireworks display and an air force flyover, KCNA reported.

The audience were moved by portrayals of "life-and-death bloody battles" and "death-defying hand-to-hand fights and heroic suicidal explosions the young soldiers chose without hesitation", it said.

North Korea and Russia signed a military treaty in 2024, obligating both states to provide military assistance "without delay" in the event of an attack on the other.

- 'Brilliant war results' -

The opening of the memorial coincides with the first anniversary of Moscow's recovery of parts of Kursk, a region in Russia where Ukraine launched a major counteroffensive starting in mid-2024.

North Korean soldiers were deployed in the area to help beat back the Ukrainian advance.

In his meeting with Belousov, Kim hailed the "brilliant war results in liberating Kursk", according to KCNA.

Russian President Vladimir Putin praised the "extraordinary bravery and genuine devotion" of North Korean troops in a letter to Kim that was published by KCNA.

Seoul estimates about 2,000 North Koreans have been killed in the Ukraine war.

North Korean troops are said to have been instructed to kill themselves rather than be captured in battle.

Only two North Korean soldiers have been taken alive and are currently in custody of Ukrainian authorities.

- Olive branch shunned -

In contrast with its ties with Russia, North Korea has called South Korea its "most hostile" adversary despite Seoul's efforts at engagement.

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said on Monday that it was "the destiny of both the South and the North to make the flowers of peace bloom".

He vowed to act "proactively" to restore trust with Pyongyang, adding: "We hope the North will trust the sincerity of our government and respond in kind."

Lee's comments marked the anniversary of the 2018 inter-Korean summit, at which Kim and South Korea's then-president Moon Jae-in memorably crossed into the other country's territory.

The summit yielded a declaration to work towards an official end to the Korean War, but was later suspended as bilateral tensions rose again.

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At a cooking school in Moscow, Yulia Fedishova was preparing a "smetannik": a traditional Slavic layer cake with a sour cream topping.

The "Lunch a la Russe" master class she was attending on the secrets of classic Russian dishes is just one example of how many Muscovites are trying to reconnect with their ancestral "roots" amid the war in Ukraine.

The push is encouraged by the Kremlin as Russia faces deepening isolation from the West.

"In such troubling times, you want to return to something familiar, to become closer to your roots in order to find calmness and balance," said Fedishova, a 27-year-old corporate trainer.

Whereas before the war, fondness for traditional pastimes and cuisine may have been dismissed as parochial in big-city Western-inspired Russia, now it is all the rage.

Facing difficulty travelling to Europe and steeped in an ultra-patriotic drive from the Kremlin, many Russians have turned to the tastes and style of their Tsarist and Cold War-era ancestors.

Village foods like cloudberries and jam from pine cones have resurged as a popular ingredient in teas and cakes in Moscow cafes.

Trips to the banya -- the Russian steam bath that involves being flogged with a birch branch and, in winter, jumping into the snow -- have surged, replacing visits to modern-style spas.

Much to the delight of President Vladimir Putin, the kokoshnik, an elaborate traditional Russian headdress, has even made a comeback.

"I've been told that we have a revival of a Russian tradition -- young women are going to events, or going out to bars and so on, wearing kokoshniks and traditional Russian outfits," the Kremlin chief said last October.

"You know, it's not a joke. It makes me very happy." 

- 'Retreat' -

The drive comes both from the top -- with Putin pushing Russia to ditch Western values and embrace its break from the West -- and from below, with organic and cultural bottom-up initiatives.

Foreign social networks are banned or restricted, independent media have been forced into exile and Western society routinely bashed as decadent, godless and debauched by officials and on state TV.

Cultural links have diminished since Russia launched its military offensive in 2022.

There are no direct flights to the West and obtaining a visa to visit the EU or the United States has become much more complicated.

"We used to travel a lot, saw Europe, and know it by heart," Natalia, a well-off 39-year-old from Moscow, told AFP.

"But I don't want to go there anymore," she said, blasting what she called "passport discrimination".

"I've never supported the West's policy of lumping us all together regardless of our views -- just as I've never supported what's happening in our country now."

In the early 2010s, two-thirds of Russians described themselves as pro-European, Denis Volkov, head of the Levada Centre independent pollster -- labelled a "foreign agent" by Moscow -- told AFP.

"Now the situation is exactly the opposite," he said.

"It's kind of a retreat into our own identity against the background of Russia's isolation."

At the same time, nationalism and patriotism are surging.

The proportion who see Russia as "one of the best countries in the world" has more than doubled since the mid-1990s -- up from 36 percent to 76 percent, the Levada Center found.

- 'New patriotism' -

In the world of fashion, several brands have launched collections featuring classic embroidery and floral patterns.

The Tvoye brand -- "yours" in Russian -- has had a hit with its "Russian vibes" line, featuring prints of babushkas -- Russian grandmas -- and distinctive Russian window frames on T-shirts.

"This is our new kind of patriotism," interior designer Anna Loseva said.

"My clients no longer want to copy the West. They prefer authentic things over standardised ones."

Recently, some of her customers have even commissioned iconostases -- huge wooden screens featuring paintings of Orthodox icons, typically found in churches -- for their homes.

Others have tried to incorporate elements of tradition, while holding onto the European influence.

The whitewashed walls of Alexei Kochkarev's OKN restaurant evoke an old Orthodox monastery, while its decor is clearly Scandinavian minimalism.

"It's an intentional dualism," he told AFP.

The enthusiasm for heritage is "our response to external pressure."

"Right now it really is a national awakening. But we can't be separated from Europe. Why is it necessary to choose?"

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In a sprawling office in Hefei, the eastern Chinese electric vehicle hub, hundreds of employees and several robotic arms sat refining software developed jointly by German behemoth Volkswagen and Chinese EV maker XPeng.

The days when foreign firms saw such partnerships largely as a necessary entrance fee to the world's largest auto market are long gone.

Legacy overseas brands are now seeking out collaboration, hoping the domestic market's blistering pace and technological innovation will rub off and boost their competitiveness in China and increasingly, abroad.

VW-XPeng's China Electronic Architecture (CEA) -- software that controls a car's electronics -- was delivered within 18 months, said Frank Han, CEO of Cariad China, VW's software company.

Without XPeng's cooperation, it would have taken much longer, he told reporters on a trip this week ahead of a major auto show in Beijing.

"In Germany, (it would take) at least three to four years," he said.

From China's opening up until recently, carmakers seeking market access had to enter a joint venture with a local, often state-owned company.

As well as sharing profits, domestic firms benefited from their overseas partners' shared technology and best practice.

"You can basically call the current situation 'the reverse joint venture'," said Zhang Yu, managing director of Shanghai-based consultancy Automotive Foresight.

"Foreign partners are starting to use local Chinese partners' technology or EV platforms to modify -- or actually directly build a new car -- based on their Chinese partners' car."

- 'Shocking moment' -

For decades, China was a cash cow for many legacy brands, requiring minimal investment and offering huge gains.

But as the EV age dawned, helped by top-down policy such as generous subsidies, Chinese firms hit the throttle.

After the isolation of Covid and against a backdrop of sliding sales, the 2023 Shanghai auto show was "a shocking moment" for foreign visitors, UBS analyst Paul Gong told AFP.

He described the relative speeds of pandemic-era development as like "interstellar travelling -- inside, China had leapt forwards while outside, global carmakers lagged".

China is now considered by many as leading in areas like smart cockpits, battery technology and assisted driving systems.

Ford CEO Jim Farley has called the progress "the most humbling thing I've ever seen".  

By 2025, foreign brands were increasingly adopting Chinese tech.

Autonomous driving collaborations included VW with Horizon Robotics, Audi with Huawei, and a variety of firms including Toyota and GM with Momenta.

Models like the Nissan N7, Mazda EZ60, and SAIC Audi E5 were developed using joint venture partners' platforms, and investment was poured into research and development teams in China.

- 'China for the world' -

Companies are increasingly explicit they hope in-China investments will boost their competitiveness overseas, especially as Chinese firms begin their own expansions abroad.

"The know-how we gained (in China) is compelling us towards our goal of becoming a leading tech player in the automotive industry worldwide," VW Group CEO Oliver Blume said on Monday, calling the country "the fitness centre of the automotive industry".

He told AFP that VW was eying other Asian countries and South America as places that might be receptive to its China-developed offerings.

His counterpart at rival BMW told state news agency Xinhua last year that "the supply chain here is not only about China for China, but it's also China for the world".

For Japan's Nissan, exports are set to become "a strategic pillar", the company said in April, as its in-China sales slow.

The China-developed N7 and Frontier Pro will be sent to South America and Southeast Asia, with the latter additionally shipped to the Middle East.

"Our brand is still relevant, even in a very difficult market like China," CEO Ivan Espinosa told reporters.

"And if you can compete in China, you can compete outside of China."

France's Renault, meanwhile, has stopped selling cars in China but uses its partnerships there for tech development.

One example is the Dacia Spring, manufactured by state-owned Dongfeng, a small EV which significantly undercut competitors when it began selling in Europe in 2021.

- Ecosystem advantage -

The scorecard for foreign automakers' pivot is "mixed", said UBS's Gong.

While they have not regained market share in China, "their products and technologies have improved", which could help them in other markets like Europe, he said.

"Their challenges would be greater without" that strategy, he concluded.

To an extent, foreign firms have little choice.

"The advantage Chinese firms hold is not tied to a single technology or model, but to an integrated ecosystem," Chris Liu from research group Omdia told AFP.

The combination of software engineering talent, proximity to suppliers, and real-world data accessibility "is difficult for foreign automakers to replicate outside of China".

And foreign brands need to make "drastic decisions" that go beyond just product, said founder of Sino Auto Insights, Tu Le.

"It's culture, speed, shuttering brands, eliminating management that don't have the right skills to lead them," he said.

"'Learning' (from Chinese firms) is only part of the answer."

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Around 60 nations are attending a world-first conference in Colombia to tackle an issue that has deadlocked the UN climate talks -- how to exit the fossil fuels that cause global warming.

Colombia's Environment Minister Irene Velez Torres has been prominent as host of this breakaway climate conference, which has drawn nations wanting to accelerate the fossil fuel phaseout despite the stalemate in the UN-led "COP" summits.

These countries represent "a new power", said Velez Torres, a former mining and energy minister whose own country is navigating its exit from coal and oil.

Major fossil fuel producers are joining the first-of-its-kind talks but the biggest greenhouse gas emitters -- including the United States, China and Russia -- are skipping the event.

AFP interviewed Velez Torres ahead of the high-level talks between ministers and climate envoys on April 28-29 in the Caribbean port town of Santa Marta:

QUESTION: The world's biggest fossil fuel producers are not in Santa Marta. Does their absence threaten the credibility of this event? 

ANSWER: "We can look at it the other way around. When the largest emitters have been present at the COP negotiations, they have been the ones who have pushed for a veto to prevent any discussion of the need to transition beyond fossil fuels. 

Today, it is worth focusing on the more than 50 countries that are here, representing almost 50 percent of the global population, including consumer countries, producer countries and vulnerable countries of the Global South and North. 

In that sense, we are a new power today." 

Q: But wouldn't their absence diminish the authority of any agreement reached in Santa Marta?

A: "Not at all, because we are not waiting for a joint declaration or new binding agreements between countries. We are waiting for solutions, and these do not necessarily depend on who the biggest emitters are. We hope that at some point they will get on board." 

Q: This conference is running parallel to -- and outside -- the UN climate talks. Does that indicate a growing frustration at the limitations of the annual COP summits? 

A: "Multilateralism is in crisis, but this doesn't mean we should do away with it. 

"On the contrary, we need a multilateralism that is more deeply rooted in the people and not just in governments, biases or economic lobbying. We need new alignments, new alliances." 

Q: Is it the end of the road for the COPs?

A: "The COPs have demonstrated a capacity for dialogue -- but also limitations. One limitation relates to how the oil industry lobby has skewed the topics that can or cannot be included in the COPs. 

"Another is the consensus methodology, which has resulted in a de facto veto against countries like Colombia that want more ambitious discussions on decisions particularly related to fossil fuels. 

"And on the other hand, there is a methodological issue that has limited the inclusion of voices from civil society." 

Q: What concrete results will this conference produce? 

A: "First, the launch of the first scientific panel dedicated to the energy transition. This panel will be able to advise cities, regions, countries and coalitions on developing "roadmaps" for their own energy transition. We also expect a synthesis of the contributions from governments, civil society, the private sector, unions and the people who are here. 

"This report will be submitted to the COP30 (presidency) and COP31 (presidency) as one input to the global roadmap for moving away from fossil fuels." 

Q: Colombia advocates for the clean energy transition but is a major producer of coal and oil. How does President Gustavo Petro's government manage this paradox? 

A: "We've said there will be no new hydrocarbon contracts or expansion of coal mining. With these decisions, we have simultaneously incentivised productive economies based on food production, tourism and industrialisation. 

"The year 2025 showed, for the first time, that there were more exports in terms of remittances and foreign exchange from coffee versus coal. And 2025 was also the first year in which Colombia had more energy from non-conventional renewables, particularly solar, than from coal."

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The European Central Bank is expected to hold interest rates steady again this week as it waits to see if the inflation spike triggered by the Middle East war will prove temporary or begin to weigh on growth.

Markets ramped up their bets on a rate hike after the US-Israeli war on Iran sparked a global energy shock, which is already pushing up eurozone consumer prices. 

Inflation in the 21-nation single currency area jumped to 2.6 percent in March, above the ECB's two-percent target, and the bank has warned it could surge far higher in a worst-case scenario.

ING economist Carsten Brzeski said the ECB's mantra before the war -- that it was in a "good place" on rates -- was "no more".

"The bank is back in crisis mode, shifting its focus from longer-term projections to actual developments and back to a 'driving at sight' approach," he said.

Still, economists expect the central bank not to make any moves at its meeting Thursday and keep its benchmark deposit rate at two percent, where it has been since June last year, as it waits to see how the war plays out.

US President Donald Trump has extended a ceasefire with Iran to allow more time for peace talks, and strikes have mostly ended around the region, though the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to tanker traffic.

Energy prices have also not risen as fast as they did in the aftermath of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, economists note, and supply chains are not facing the same disruptions.

- 'Not in a rush'- 

Despite the ghosts from 2022, when the ECB was criticised for moving to slowly to raise rates as inflation surged, policymakers have signalled they are not in a hurry.

"We are not in a rush," Bank of Latvia governor Martins Kazaks, a member of the ECB's rate-setting governing council, told The Financial Times last week.

"We still have the large luxury of collecting data and forming our view," he added.

Rate increases would also weigh on the lacklustre eurozone economy, whose crucial manufacturers in particular face new pressure from the energy shock.

A survey released last week showed that eurozone business activity contracted for the first time in 16 months in April due to the war's impact.

In the United States, economists have pushed back their expectations of rate cuts as the Iran energy shocks adds to inflationary pressure, and the Federal Reserve is also expected to keep rates on hold when it meets Wednesday.

- 'Double uncertainty' -

Much comes down to whether Iran and the United States can come to a lasting agreement that secures Gulf oil and gas supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, a factor over which the ECB has no control.

All eyes will be on ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference after the meeting for clues about the outlook for rates.

But she is likely to repeat language of recent weeks that the bank is "well positioned" to deal with the fallout from the war, and refuse to be drawn on future decisions.

Speaking in Berlin last week, Lagarde said the institution was facing "double uncertainty" in that it was unclear both how long the shock would last and what its effects on the broader economy would be.

"The stop-start nature of the conflict -- war, ceasefire, peace talks, their collapse, a naval blockade, its lifting, its reinstatement -- makes it exceptionally hard to gauge the duration and depth of the consequences," she said.

Still, most economists believe the ECB will not take any action on rates just yet.

The situations now and in 2022 are "very different", Oddo BHF economist Bruno Cavalier said.

"The conditions for a surge in non-energy prices and wages are not in place," he added. "The ECB has the luxury of doing nothing."

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