Stocks sink amid fears over US-Iran ceasefire

Jalen Brunson produced a dazzling 35-point performance as the New York Knicks pummeled the Philadelphia 76ers 137-98 to grab a 1-0 lead in their NBA Eastern Conference semi-final playoff series on Monday.

Knicks talisman Brunson led a dominant New York offense who erupted for 74 points in the first half and were always in control against a dangerous Sixers side who upset second-seeded Boston in the first round.

OG Anunoby provided Brunson's offensive support with 18 points while Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges added 17 points apiece in front of a star-studded crowd at Madison Square Garden.

The win was the perfect start to the best-of-seven series for the Knicks, who are chasing a first appearance in the NBA finals since 1999.

Brunson set the tone for a lopsided evening in the first quarter, pouring in 14 points as the Knicks surged into a 33-25 lead.

The 29-year-old point guard kept the points flowing in the second quarter as the Knicks rattled in 41 points to take a 74-51 lead into half-time, Brunson icing the half with a superb three-pointer from 25 feet.

New York never looked like surrendering that advantage over the remainder of the game, leading by as many as 40 points in the fourth quarter before cruising home.

Philadelphia's big three of Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid and Paul George failed to fire, shooting a combined 12-of-31 in the face of a stifling New York defense.

New York will aim to double their series lead in game two in New York on Wednesday.

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Stocks sank Tuesday with a fresh spike in Middle East tensions fanning fears over the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, with the two sides appearing to be no closer to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

And while oil prices fell, they held most of the huge gains seen Monday after the two countries traded fire over the key waterway and the United Arab Emirates reported on an installation.

The exchanges came after Donald Trump announced a mission called "Project Freedom" to guide ships from neutral countries out of the Persian Gulf, saying it was a humanitarian effort to help stranded crews.

The US president was later quoted by Fox News as warning that Iran would be "blown off the face of the earth" if it attacked US ships.

Crude prices surged Monday -- with Brent up almost six percent -- after a US admiral said US forces sank six small Iranian boats. Iran denied any had been sunk and earlier fired warning shots at US warships.

That came after the UAE said an energy installation in the emirate of Fujairah had been hit, while the UAE defence ministry announced four cruise missiles were launched from Iran, with three successfully shot down and another falling into the sea.

A senior Iranian military official did not deny the strikes but said: "What happened was the product of the US military's adventurism to create a passage for ships to illegally pass through" the Strait of Hormuz, according to state television.

Still, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the clashes showed there was "no military solution to a political crisis" and pointed to Pakistan's efforts to keep mediating.

Both main oil contracts slipped Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate shedding more than one percent. However, it was hovering just below $105, and Brent was slightly lower at a little more than $113.

"The US has already demonstrated its willingness to secure passage, successfully guiding vessels through contested waters," said Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management.

"But the response from Tehran has been equally clear, signalling that any proximity to its strategic perimeter will be met with force, raising the stakes into something that feels less like brinkmanship and more like an asymmetric pressure campaign."

Fears that the ceasefire, which has been in place since early April, could fall apart weighed on Asian equities, with Hong Kong, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington and Taipei all down.

Tokyo, Seoul and Shanghai were closed for holidays.

The losses followed a drop on Wall Street -- where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq came off record highs -- and came after a healthy rally fuelled by fresh interest in all things linked to artificial intelligence.

"Whether Operation Project Freedom actually proceeds, or proves to be the latest in a long line of initiatives and threats that fail to gain traction or are later walked back, remains to be seen," said IG's Tony Sycamore.

"If it does proceed, whether Iran will allow safe passage or instead chooses to fire on escorted vessels is another open question."

Meanwhile, Wells Fargo Investment Institute's Darrell Cronk warned that even if the crisis is brought under control, energy markets and factory activity would likely take some time to get back to normal.

- Key figures at around 0220 GMT -

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.8 percent at $104.47 a barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.9 percent to $113.14 a barrel

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.0 percent at 25,829.06 

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: Closed for a holiday

Shanghai - Composite: Closed for a holiday

Dollar/yen: UP at 157.23 yen from 157.08 yen on Monday

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1687 from $1.1701

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3526 from $1.3538

Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.40 pence from 86.41 pence

New York - Dow: DOWN 1.1 percent at 48,941.90 (close)

London - FTSE 100: Closed for a holiday

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G7 trade ministers are set to meet in Paris on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss issues such as critical minerals and small packages but will not directly address the latest US threat to impose additional tariffs on European vehicles.

The second meeting of trade ministers under the French G7 presidency is taking place as the global economy has been upended by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil normally flows.

Discussion of the repercussions of the Middle East war is expected to dominate an informal session on Tuesday, according to the office of France's junior trade minister Nicolas Forissier. 

Meanwhile President Donald Trump's threat last Friday that he will hike US tariffs on cars and trucks from the European Union will likely addressed separately.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is expected to meet with EU Trade Commission Maros Sefcovic in the French capital.

They also have a meeting scheduled with Forissier and French Economy Minister Roland Lescure.

The US and EU struck a deal last summer to cap US tariffs on EU autos and parts at 15 percent, which is lower than the 25-percent duty that Trump imposed on many other trading partners.

In late March, EU lawmakers gave their green light to the bloc's tariff deal with Trump, but with conditions. It must still be approved by member countries.

"Our position for the moment is not to overreact," said Forissier's office.

"We will discuss it among Europeans when the time comes, but in any case not within the framework of the G7," it added.

"This agreement is useful and we must continue to implement it."

- Four priorities -

On Wednesday the trade ministers of the G7 nations (Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States) are expected to discuss the four priorities set by the group's French presidency.

The first is find a collective and effective response to industrial overcapacity that undermines free trade.

Even if the discussion doesn't formally target China, the country's subsidising of certain sectors has created trade tensions for years.

A second priority is economic security, in particular securing and diversifying supplies of critical minerals that are indispensable in producing strategic products such as computer chips, electric vehicle batteries and super magnets. 

France favours creating a system of groups of producing, processing and consuming nations that share a commitment to implementing good practices.

- Small parcels, big problem -

The ministers will also touch on the failure in March of the latest round of World Trade Organization negotiations, with the body's role as a trade referee having been paralyzed by the United States for years.

"The goal is for this organization to be better suited to current challenges," Forissier's office said.

The ministers will also discuss cross-border sales via e-commerce sites which have generated huge volumes of small parcels that escaped customs duties and posed unfair competition to local retailers.

The US last year suspended the tariff exemption on small parcels valued at less than $800 and the EU will this summer put in place a flat-rate customs duty on packages valued at under 150 euros.

The summit of G7 heads of state and government is scheduled for June 15 to 17 in the eastern town Evian along the shore of Lake Geneva.

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Immaculately dressed in Victorian costume, Sherlock Holmes devotees gathered at the Reichenbach Falls in Switzerland to recreate the intrepid detective's fateful duel with his nemesis Professor Moriarty, 135 years on.

Captivated by British writer Arthur Conan Doyle's evocative world of villains, sleuths, fog, gas lamps and tweed, around 60 members of the Sherlock Holmes Society of London made the pilgrimage to the hallowed destination.

The spectacular scene is where Holmes and Moriarty clashed on a precarious high ledge, apparently falling to their deaths on May 4, 1891.

The group's three-day journey through Holmes-related sites in Switzerland wound up at Meiringen in the Bernese Oberland, for a funicular ride on Sunday up to the thundering Reichenbach Falls, which tumble 120 metres (400 feet) into a pool below.

Hats of all varieties, twirled moustaches, lavish dresses and walking canes abounded, as each came dressed as an individual character from the stories, including the missing rugby player, the king of Bohemia, and Mrs Hudson, Holmes's landlady at 221B Baker Street, London.

"It does transform you, just wearing the clothes, and hunching a bit," said British lawyer Peter Horrocks, top-hatted and clad in black as the sinister crime lord Moriarty.

"This is so atmospheric," he said amid the roar and spray, insisting it "absolutely" brings Sherlockians closer to the story.

Doyle killed off his beloved detective at this spot in his 1893 short story "The Adventure of the Final Problem".

But such was the public outcry, Doyle was forced to resurrect him -- and the affection for Holmes endures to this day.

- 'Tears in my eyes' -

With a magnifying glass in one hand and a pipe in the other, motoring author Philip Porter played Holmes.

He hailed the "unique appeal" of Doyle's stories, "full of Victorian atmosphere, the triumph of good over evil, and some wonderful characters" to draw in devotees.

"We have very little in common in real life, but we are brought together by the Sherlock Holmes canon," he told AFP.

Recreating the duel, Holmes and Moriarty grappled, finally holding the stance depicted in Sidney Paget's 1893 illustration as the pair seemingly tumbled.

Doctor Watson then walked by, his shouts of "Holmes!" echoing off the rocks, before discovering the letter the detective left for him to find -- and realising his dear friend had plummeted to his doom.

"When Watson found the note, frankly I had tears in my eyes. I found that really moving," said Helene Vrot, from near Paris, who dressed in the 1895 "very short-lived fashion for huge sleeves".

"It's an opportunity to make memories with people who have the same kind of mind," she told AFP of the trip.

For JeanMarie Zubia, from the US state of Washington, "it's a total immersion" into the Victorian era.

Her character was Laura Lyons from "The Hound of the Baskervilles", and she revelled in the collective for the detective.

"It's amazing to be surrounded by all the other Sherlockians here, because they get to talk non-stop about what I'm so passionate about... the minutiae that goes into every single story," she said.

- 'My dream place' -

One sweat-soaked trail runner did a double-take as he dashed straight into the costumed throng, while Chinese first-time visitor Kitty -- making her own solo anniversary pilgrimage -- could not believe her eyes.

Wearing a Holmes-style deerstalker hat, the 24-year-old Sherlock fanatic suddenly walked right into beloved characters come to life.

"Wow! It's very lucky of me to meet Mr Sherlock Holmes and Doctor Watson and Professor Moriarty and Colonel Moran!" the enthralled Manchester University robotics student said.

"This is my dream place. It's beautiful -- just like Watson wrote in his diary."

The organised visit was celebrating the more than 1,000-strong London society's 75th anniversary.

The trip's coordinator Markus Geisser told AFP nearly half the visitors were on their first Holmes trip, showing "travelling to Switzerland in a Victorian costume is still something that people actually like to do".

Dressed as the devil-may-care German spy Von Bork, he said the multinational society and its events were a chance to meet likeminded people, adding: "in my case, I met my wife."

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The president of the Dominican Republic on Monday suspended a mining project by Canadian company GoldQuest after hundreds protested the proposal over its feared environmental impact. 

The project sought to extract deposits of gold, copper and silver from a reserve of 1.1 million ounces, valued at around $5 billion, according to GoldQuest.

Hundreds demonstrated on Sunday to protest GoldQuest's proposed mining project in the Cordillera Central mountain range, raising concerns the extraction process would damage soil and water.

The location is far from tourist areas and  near the southern province of San Juan, where the local agriculture-based economy supports 143,000 residents.

"When citizens express concerns and worries, our duty is to act with prudence and transparency, which is why I have ordered the immediate suspension of any activity" related to the project, President Luis Abinader said on his WhatsApp channel.

Although the project did not have the necessary permit, GoldQuest had hailed the Dominican government's "commitment" to moving forward with the project on its website.

"The initiative has only been in the environmental assessment phase and there is no authorization whatsoever," Abinader confirmed. 

"My commitment is to the country, to its people, and to its future," he said.

The protests on Sunday, held in various areas of San Juan and the town of Sabaneta, were dispersed with tear gas. Four officers reported injuries as a result of clashes with demonstrators.

Sabaneta is home to the province's main dam, which supplies water to more than 30,000 hectares (74,000 acres) of crop-bearing lands.

Gold is the main export of the Dominican Republic, and mining accounts for around 2 percent of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

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© Agence France-Presse

As evening falls in Fiji's capital, a steady stream of people approaches a makeshift clinic that is a first line of defence against one of the world's fastest-growing HIV epidemics.

In the South Pacific nation -- a popular tourist destination of just under a million people -- there were over 2,000 new HIV cases recorded last year, a 26 percent increase from 2024.

The government has declared an HIV outbreak and described it as a national crisis.

"It's spreading like wildfire," Siteri Dinawai, 46, who came to be tested, told AFP.

The Moonlight Clinic, a converted minibus parked in a suburban cul-de-sac in Suva, is part of a push to bring testing into neighbourhoods.

Volunteers from the Survival Advocacy Network -- a group supporting sex workers -- and Rainbow Pride Fiji, which works with LGBTQ+ communities, are on hand to speak to those who may be reluctant.

Ana Fofole and her team at Medical Services Pacific, which runs the clinic, hand out condoms as part of their awareness drive and test for syphilis and hepatitis B.

"We don't just turn up anywhere -- we have to do it the right way," says Fofole.

Irinieta Foi, 45, is among those Medical Services Pacific hopes to reach by bringing testing into neighbourhoods.

Foi, who is able to get a result in 15 minutes, says she stumbled upon the clinic.

"I decided, OK, why not?"

Many stay away for fear of returning a positive result, said 28-year-old Ecelina Lalabaluva, who also got tested.

- Transit hub for drugs -

Clinics like this raise awareness about the blood-borne disease and can help pin down just how many people are living with HIV in Fiji and refer them to treatment.

The number of known cases is around 5,000, according to Renata Ram, country director for Fiji and the Pacific at UNAIDS, who says the crisis has been building for years.

That number was as low as 500 in 2014, according to estimates by UNAIDS, which classifies Fiji as having among the world's fastest-growing HIV epidemics.

Transmission rates began to increase around 2019, when a group of "very high-risk" injecting drug users emerged, primarily in the sex worker community, Ram explained.

"Fiji, like other Pacific islands, for a long time have been transit hubs for drugs from Latin America and Asia destined for Australia and New Zealand," said Virginia Comolli, Pacific programme head at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime.

The flow of highly addictive drugs such as methamphetamine and cocaine to those lucrative markets rose sharply after a lull during the Covid pandemic, she explained.

Those drugs are increasingly seeping into the Pacific's domestic markets -- in part due to foreign criminal syndicates opting to pay their local facilitators in kind, she said.

For those living with the virus, the social stigma can weigh heavy in a country where conservative values largely prevail.

- 'Wait to die?' -

One of the few public faces of the crisis is Mark Lal, who was diagnosed with HIV two years ago.

"In Fiji, whenever the topic of sex comes up, everyone just disperses," says Lal, 24, a gay man who said he is not a drug user.

He originally knew little about HIV and the available treatment.

"When I was diagnosed, the first thing I asked the doctors was: 'What now? Do I just wait to die?'"

On his "Living Positive Fiji" page on Facebook, Lal has fielded questions from more than a hundred people.

Most are aged 17 to 20 and are unsure whether to disclose their HIV status out of fear of discrimination.

"If you come out publicly as someone living with HIV, there's a chance where you might actually not get a good reaction," Lal said.

His own hospital visit for his initial diagnosis left its mark.

"I saw some walking out with fear in their eyes, and I was like: 'I want to change this. I want to help people'."

Fiji has a tough task to rein in case numbers, according to Ram of UNAIDS, who said the country is "15 to 20 years behind" in its HIV efforts.

"A needle-syringe programme is what is very much needed right now."

The government has said it will adopt a plan to prevent the spread of disease through drug injections, but implementation of its programme to provide safe injecting equipment has been delayed.

For Foi, one of the women attending the outreach clinic, the task is simple.

"It's really important for everybody to get tested."

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The Premier League is the envy of the world for its revenue-generating power, yet clubs lost nearly $1 billion last season as the pursuit of on-field success trumped financial security.

Despite amassing a record £6.8 billion ($9.2 billion) in combined revenue in 2024/25, outgoings continued to outstrip income due to rampant inflation in the transfer market, player wages and agent fees.

Chelsea set an unwanted record by posting a Premier League record pre-tax loss of £262 million for the year ending June 30, 2025.

The Blues' scattergun approach to hoovering up global young talent makes them an extreme case, but they are part of a broader trend.

Relegation-threatened Tottenham, the ninth-richest club in the world, were £121 million in the red last season despite booming revenues from their multi-functional, state-of-the-art stadium, and winning the Europa League.

The overall numbers would be even bleaker were it not for some smart accounting, with several clubs selling off assets to their own ownership groups.

Saudi-backed Newcastle sold their St James' Park stadium to another company owned by the club's shareholders to turn a profit, while Everton and Aston Villa cashed in on their women's teams.

- Transfer fees -

"The problem with the Premier League is that clubs are so incentivised to overspend," football finance expert Kieran Maguire told AFP.

"It's an arms race at the end of the day in terms of competing for players on transfer fees and wages."

The figures for the 2024/25 campaign do not even fully account for a record £3 billion spent on transfer fees by Premier League clubs in last year's summer transfer window, smashing the previous high by £650 million.

Liverpool's £125-million signing of Alexander Isak set a new record for an English club and was part of a £450-million window for the English champions, which has so far failed to reap tangible reward.

Wages continue to spiral, reaching £4.4 billion last season, a nine percent increase on the previous year, outstripping the seven percent rise in revenue.

Spending on agents also reached new highs, fuelling fans' anger at the money flowing out the game while they are asked to pay higher ticket prices.

In the frenzied world of the Premier League, success in an increasingly competitive league is no longer measured solely by trophies.

For the second consecutive year at least five English sides will qualify for the Champions League, which guarantees a huge financial windfall.

- Losses 'affordable' -

New financial rules will be introduced next season focused on limiting squad cost in line with revenue.

Spending on wages, transfer fees and agents must not exceed 85 percent of revenue, with a stricter 70 percent limit placed on teams in UEFA competitions.

However, those changes are unlikely to make a significant impact on losses, with operating costs, which jumped to £1.9 billion for Premier League clubs last season, excluded.

Despite clubs' tendencies to haemorrhage money, they remain an attractive asset due to their scarcity value and role in the Premier League's global soap opera.

British billionaire Jim Ratcliffe's 27.7 percent stake in Manchester United, bought for £1.25 billion in 2024, valued the 20-time English champions at £4.5 billion. 

Chelsea were sold in 2022 for a total package worth £4.25 billion to a consortium led by American investor Todd Boehly and private equity firm Clearlake Capital.

Manchester City have become the dominant force in the English game since a takeover backed by the Abu Dhabi royal family, while the Saudi sovereign wealth fund took control of Newcastle in 2021.

Former Manchester United captain Gary Neville believes the scale of Chelsea's financial problems could signal a slowdown in the bull market for English clubs.

But Maguire argues that losses are deemed affordable by super-rich owners.

"With billionaire owners and sovereign wealth funds in charge of clubs, whilst the losses seem high, for those people they are deemed to be affordable," he said.

"Unless there's a mindset change from club owners in terms of controlling your core costs, which are player-related in transfer fees and wages, we're going to continue in this vein for some time."

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On a sunny afternoon, Shina Shabso was busy making traditional cheese pastries for a wedding on Israel's border with Lebanon, the celebration in the Circassian village of Rehaniya a much-needed break from weeks of war.

Known as "halyuj", the fried semi-circular pastries are a staple of life in this tiny community of Circassians spread across two villages in northern Israel and are served up to honour guests at a celebration or to comfort those who mourn. 

"Preserving traditional food, especially Circassian cheese, is very important because in Israel we are a minority of around 5,000," said Shabso, who filled them with her own freshly-made cheese, the tradition passed down through families for generations. 

"It's important for the next generation to know where we came from, what people used to eat and how they used to produce it," said the 32-year-old artisan cheesemaker who runs Gvinot Shabso with her husband Itzik.

It is an explanation she often gave tour groups who would visit before the northern border started coming under heavy Hezbollah fire with the start of the 2023 Gaza war. 

Like their Jewish and Arab neighbours, the Circassians -- Sunni Muslims who serve in the Israeli army -- have had their lives disrupted by the latest fighting between Hezbollah and Israel that began in March.

For now, though, the skies were clear with only a few distant booms echoing over the border some 4.5 kilometres (nearly three miles) away. 

- Loyalty to the place - 

The Circassians are an ethnic group indigenous to the North Caucasus, a mountainous region between the Black and Caspian seas, in what is today primarily southern Russia. 

They were massacred and forcibly expelled from their homeland by Russian troops between 1860 and 1864 in what their descendants want recognised as genocide, its anniversary marked every May 21.

Known for their resilience to harsh conditions, fighting skills and loyalty to the place they live, the Circassians were brought to the Middle East by the Ottoman Empire in the mid-1870s and never left. 

Today, they number five million worldwide, of which three million live in Turkey, 120,000 in Syria and 100,000 in Jordan, while the rest are scattered across Russia, Europe and the United States.

"When the rulers changed, the Circassians stuck with it, they're people of their word. Loyalty means you're loyal to your surroundings," said Zuher Tchaocho, 52, director of the Circassian museum in Kfar Kama, the other Circassian village.

Although he speaks Hebrew, his native tongue is Circassian -- a phonetically-rich language based on 64 letters written in Cyrillic that graces the street signs, alongside Hebrew and Arabic.

"This is the only place in the world where children are taught Circassian as part of the education system," Tchaocho said.

- A living language -

The everyday use of Circassian is what sets the community apart, according to Riyad Gosh, 80, former head of Circassian heritage at Israel's education ministry.

"We've retained our Circassian identity 100 percent.. We preserve our community in language, culture, customs and behaviour," he said, wearing a green baseball cap with the 12 gold stars and three crossed arrows of the Circassian flag.

"But we're a people that is disappearing because many don't speak the language, it's not preserved like we preserve it here. That really hurts me."

Elsewhere the mood was high as the wedding celebrations began, trays of cheese pastries handed around as the groom approached the bride's home to claim her, his entourage dancing after an accordion playing traditional songs. 

In this case, both bride and groom are from the village, but the problem of not marrying out is a growing challenge with just 1,500 Circassians living in Rehaniya and 3,500 in Kfar Kama, said Tchaocho.

Bringing someone from abroad involves complex residency issues, he added.

"They want to keep marrying only Circassians and so far they've managed, but it's hard to find people from just the two villages," he said of a problem that will "become more serious later on".

- 'Inseparable part of life' -

Although the recent conflicts have been hard on everyone in the community, no one would consider leaving, least of all Shabso. 

"We feel connected to the state of Israel, we're really attached to the Israelis here. It's like an inseparable part of my life," she told AFP. 

Her cheese business survived thanks to loyal customers spreading the word, with orders now coming from across the country, she said.

"I don't really know the history of the Circassian people but I drive 45 minutes just to buy these delicious things," Zeev Dragobetsky, 52, a veteran customer from Kfar Vradim, said with a grin.

"Whether there's a war or not, whenever Shina starts to fry (her cheese pastries), I would come -- rockets or no rockets."

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Already reeling from the effects of conflict in the Middle East, Asia is now facing the prospect of strong El Nino conditions that could spike energy demand, sap hydropower, and damage crops.

El Nino is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that brings worldwide changes in winds, air pressure, and rainfall patterns.

Last week, the United Nations' weather and climate agency said El Nino conditions could develop as soon as May to July.

The World Meteorological Organization, meanwhile, said early signs indicated the event could be particularly strong, with some dubbing the impending event a "super El Nino", although the term is not used by scientists.

That is not good news for Asia, parts of which are traditionally heavily affected by the heatwaves, drought and heavy rains that El Nino can bring.

The phenomenon essentially shifts traditional weather patterns around, for example moving rain that normally falls over Indonesia out to sea, leaving the country vulnerable to drought and wildfires.

El Nino occurs around every two to seven years and is forecast based on sea temperatures.

"The subsurface anomaly that we're seeing so far is pretty strong," said Peter van Rensch, a climate scientist at Australia's Monash University.

"It does look a little bit like what we saw in the 1997/98 event, and that was probably the strongest El Nino," he told AFP.

There are still plenty of uncertainties, and van Rensch cautioned it was possible an El Nino might not develop at all.

- Catastrophic impacts -

But the 1997 El Nino brought catastrophic impacts, including extreme drought and devastating wildfires in Indonesia that burned through millions of hectares and created regional air pollution.

Authorities there have already identified peatlands at risk, and warned the country could see its lowest rainfall in 30 years. 

The warnings come with Asia buckling under the strain of an energy supply crunch and fears over shortages of fertiliser and other industrial and agricultural components which pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has effectively closed the strategic waterway since the United States and Israel launched attacks on the country on February 28, disrupting global fuel supplies.

Hotter weather will strain energy grids already experiencing fuel shortages, as populations seek to cool homes and workplaces, warned Haneea Isaad, energy finance specialist at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.

"For countries that are highly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for oil and gas deliveries and other trade, strained supply will lead to further fuel rationing, demand-side management and a reduction in economic activities... impacting overall GDP growth," she told AFP.

The droughts that El Nino can bring to parts of the region also pose a threat to countries that are highly dependent on hydropower, said Dinita Setyawati, senior energy analyst for Asia at the Ember thinktank.

"Most ASEAN countries use a lot of hydropower," she warned, highlighting Mekong countries, Nepal, and parts of Malaysia as particularly vulnerable because of their dependence on the sector.

The risks were laid bare in 2022, when a heatwave in China saw hydropower generation in Sichuan fall over 50 percent, creating shortages that impacted households and industry alike.

- Agriculture risks -

Hotter, drier conditions will also create fresh risks for agriculture, already under pressure as the ongoing conflict raises the costs of fertiliser and fuel needed for farming equipment.

"If crop prices do not rise enough to offset these higher input and shipping costs, producer margins will be squeezed, raising the likelihood of lower fertiliser application and weaker yields," warned BMI, a unit of the Fitch Solutions research company. 

"This would intensify food price inflation and worsen food insecurity, especially in import-dependent and climate-vulnerable markets."

For some parts of Asia, an El Nino can bring bouts of intense rain and provoke flooding, which could impact sectors like southern China's late-season rice harvest, added Isaad.

How climate change affects the emergence and strength of El Ninos is still not well understood.

But research shows climate change itself will bring more frequent intense heatwaves, as well as sudden heavy rainfall that can cause flooding.

So experts said countries across the region should further insulate energy systems against more frequent disruptive weather events by diversifying and greening their grids.

"Solar and wind, coupled with batteries, provide a more resilient infrastructure than a centralised fossil infrastructure," said Setyawati.

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With snow-capped mountains sweeping down to the turquoise waters of the Caribbean, Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta National Park is one of the jewels in Colombia's tourism crown.

But the picture-postcard views mask a more sinister reality.

Armed groups call the shots in this corner of paradise, holding local businesses to ransom and terrorizing Indigenous communities.

The signing of a peace deal ending a half-century of war between the Colombian state and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebel group in 2016 thrust a country long stalked by drug lords and guerrillas onto the global tourism stage.

Each day thousands of visitors pile into the area to hike through pristine jungle to white-sand beaches or to Colombia's mountaintop Lost City, which predates Peru's Machu Picchu.

Few of them notice the men in camouflage watching from a distance.

These are the Self-Defense Forces of the Sierra Nevada (ACSN), a group of former paramilitaries who control cocaine trafficking routes in the region and also illegally mine for gold.

Extortion is also a big revenue spinner for the "Conquistadores," as ACSN members are often dubbed, who demand a percentage of the earnings of hotels, tour bus companies and local Indigenous groups, whose hand-woven hammocks and bags are snapped up by visitors.

"We are afraid and anxious about the future," Atanasio Moscote, governor of the Kogui Indigenous people, told AFP high up in Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta National Park, which the Kogui consider "the heart of the world."

- Endangered forests, corals -

In February, the government closed Tayrona National Park, a UNESCO World Heritage Site overlooking the Caribbean, for more than two weeks following threats against park rangers, allegedly by the ACSN.

The authorities accused the ACSN of pressuring the Indigenous Wayuu people living in the park to rebel against a clampdown on illegal activities such as logging.

AFP accompanied one of the park rangers on a tour of the reserve, home to the best-preserved dry forest in Colombia and some of its most biodiverse coral reefs.

"Our presence in every corner, in every area, is vital to conserve, maintain and monitor the resources we have," 31-year-old Yeiner Hernandez explained.

Tayrona Park and Sierra Nevada National Park together received more than 873,000 visitors last year.

The influx marks a dramatic change from the 1980s and 1990s, when the region was the scene of brutal fighting between the paramilitaries and the Marxist former FARC rebels.

Ten years after FARC agreed to disarm, the ACSN, founded by a paramilitary leader who was extradited to the United States, holds sway here.

Colombia's biggest drug cartel, the Gulf Clan, has attempted to grab a slice of the action in recent months, triggering clashes with the ACSN.

Indigenous people "who don't speak Spanish, and who live off their crops and their traditional knowledge," are being caught in the middle, Luis Salcedo, governor of the Arhuaco people, who live in the Sierra Nevada, told AFP.

- Image problem -

Gustavo Petro, Colombia's first left-wing president in modern times, included the ACSN in his failed policy of trying to negotiate the disarmament of all the country's armed groups.

Four years after he launched his "Paz Total" (total peace) campaign, the ACSN still rules supreme in the Santa Marta area, researcher Norma Vera told AFP.

Extortion has emerged as a key theme in the current campaign to elect a successor to Petro in elections starting May 31.

The Ministry of Defense reports having received more than 46,000 complaints of extortion since 2022.

Omar Garcia, president of the hotel association of the city of Santa Marta, a gateway to the Sierra Nevada, said he was worried about the impact on Colombia's nascent tourism trade.

"Any news affecting the image (of a destination) and visitor safety makes tourists think twice," he said.

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