Oil extends gains, stocks sink as peace talk hopes fade

The latest developments in the Middle East war:

- 'Tight' gas markets -

The market for liquefied natural gas (LNG), which has been strained by the war, will remain  "tight" through 2026 and 2027", the International Energy Agency said.

- Oil prices rise -

Oil prices extended gains and stocks struggled as investors worried about a lack of progress in ending the Middle East crisis, with Tehran keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed and the US maintaining a blockade of Iranian ports.

- Everyone needs 'stability' -

"It is in everyone's interest for stability to return as soon as possible and for the world's economies to be reassured," French President Emmanuel Macron said as he attended an EU summit in Nicosia, where talks with Middle East leaders were also scheduled.

- US reward -

The US State Department is offering up to $10 million for information on the leader of the Tehran-backed Iraqi armed group Kataeb Sayyid al-Shuhada (KSS), which Washington designates as a terrorist organisation.

- Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extended -

The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon will be extended for three weeks, US President Donald Trump announced Thursday.

"I think there's a very good chance of having peace. I think it should be an easy one", Trump told reporters, adding that he plans to meet with top leadership from both countries in the next couple weeks.

- Hezbollah fires on northern Israel -

Hezbollah said on Thursday it fired rockets at Israel, accusing it of "violation of the ceasefire and its targeting of the town of Yater in southern Lebanon".

Hezbollah said it targeted the Shtula settlement in northern Israel with rockets.

- Trump says 'clock is ticking' for Iran -

Trump said Thursday the United States is under no pressure to end the war with Iran, but "the clock is ticking" for Tehran, as disruption from the conflict batters the world economy.

He also ruled out striking Iran with a nuclear weapon. "A nuclear weapon should never be allowed to be used by anybody," the US president told reporters at the White House.

- US aircraft carrier arrives in Middle East -

The USS George H.W. Bush aircraft carrier has arrived in the Middle East region, the US military said Thursday, bringing the number of the American navy battle groups in the theatre to three.

- Iran welcome at World Cup -

Iran's footballers will be welcome at this year's World Cup, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday, distancing the US government from a proposal that Italy could take their place in the tournament.

Rubio denied that Washington had asked the Iranian team not to come, but warned members of its delegation deemed to have ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may be barred.

- Israel awaits 'green light' -

Israel's defence minister, Israel Katz, said the country was "prepared to resume the war" and was awaiting a green light from Washington to return Iran to "the Stone Age".

- Trump's Hormuz order -

Trump on Thursday said "I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be...that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz".

- US forces board tanker -

The US Defense Department said Thursday its forces boarded a vessel in the Indian Ocean that was providing material support to Iran, the second time it had done so in three days.

burs-rmb/gv

Tesla's much-touted autonomous "robotaxi", called the Cybercab, has started production, CEO Elon Musk said on Friday, the same week that the carmaker reported first-quarter profits that beat expectations.

Musk posted a promotional video on X accompanied with the brief caption, "Cybercab has started production."

The 38-second clip, mostly shot from within a driverless Cybercab, showed the vehicle rolling off the factory floor and driving onto streets.

Musk also shared a short video clip showing what appeared to be multiple gold-colored Cybercabs driving in formation on a road.

Tesla said on Wednesday it was on track to commence "volume production" of both its Cybercab and Tesla Semi this year, after reporting first-quarter profits of $477 million.

Cybercab -- billed as a self-driving robotaxi without a steering wheel or pedals -- was first unveiled in the fall of 2024, with Musk predicting at the time that it would become available in 2027.

Tesla began offering robotaxi services to "early access" users on an invitation-only basis in the US city of Austin, Texas, last June.

The auto manufacturer posted a photo in February showing employees gathered around a Cybercab on a factory floor, with the caption "First Cybercab off the production line at Giga Texas."

hol/abs

Has a 300-year-old Stradivarius violin worth $10 million and stolen by the Nazis during World War II turned up in France?

Pascale Bernheim, an expert on looted musical instruments, thinks so.

The first clue was an article in a local newspaper.

It reported that violinist Emmanuel Coppey had  demonstrated his talent on several old violins during an evening of wine and music in the city of Colmar in the Alsace region near the German border.

Luthier Nicolo Amati had made the first in 1624, and Antonio Guarneri crafted the second in 1735, Les Dernieres nouvelles d'Alsace said.

The third was made by fellow Italian luthier Antonio Stradivari back to 1719. 

"I am absolutely convinced that it is the Lauterbach," named after one of its first owners, Bernheim told AFP.

Nazi soldiers stole the violin from a museum in the Polish capital Warsaw in 1944, according to French newspaper Le Parisien, which investigated the story.

The string instrument survived years in East Germany during the Cold War, then was last seen in France in the early 1990s.

Stradivari made only nine violins in 1719, two of which are missing -- the "Lauterbach" and the "Lautenschlager".

But the "Lautenschlager" has a back made of two pieces of wood -- not one, like the "Lauterbach", the Parisien says.

A classical concert producer named Emmanuel Jaeger organised the wine and music evening in Colmar on March 31.

He had contacted Bernheim in 2017 to trace the origin of a violin owned by Jean-Christophe Graff, a luthier from Strasbourg, she said.

But when late British luthier Charles Beare examined it before he died last year, he said it was a Stradivarius from the luthier's so-called golden period, Bernheim said.

He was worried he was holding a stolen instrument, she added.

- 'Which one is it?' -

The French expert started digging and found that Polish industrialist Henryk Grohman had owned the instrument before World War II, then handed it over to the Polish museum before his death.

She found he had descendants in Austria and Argentina.

But the instrument's origin still needs to be confirmed with certainty.

"To my knowledge, Beare twice examined the violin, then it underwent a dendrochronological analysis," to determine the age of wooden objects, Bernheim said.

Neither the concert producer Jaeger nor the luthier Graff responded to an AFP request for comment.

But Jaeger has said Bernheim was wrong.

"To the best of my knowledge, this isn't the stolen violin," he told the Alsace newspaper on Thursday.

He says the violin that starred at the concert was another of those made in 1719.

Bernheim was adamant.

"If it really is a Stradivarius from 1719, and not the Lauterbach, then which one is it?" she asked.

A rare Stradivarius violin, the "Joachim-Ma Stradivarius", fetched $11.3 million at auction in New York in February.

The most-expensive record belongs to another Stradivarius, the "Lady Blunt," which went in 2011 for $15.9 million.

dsa-mlx-ilp/ah/ekf/gv

A large ice chunk is blocking the climbing route to Everest's summit, officials said Friday, risking delays in the summit season at the world's highest peak.

A team of highly skilled mountaineers, known in Nepal as "icefall doctors", began fixing ropes and ladders on Mount Everest last month to prepare for the coming spring climbing season.

But a dangerous serac -- a block of glacial ice -- above the already treacherous Khumbu icefall has disrupted their work for nearly two weeks.

"We are waiting for it to melt, and expect that it will clear in a few days," icefall doctor Dawa Jangbu Sherpa told AFP.

Climbers must cross the Khumbu icefall, a constantly shifting maze of crevasses and ice blocks, to reach higher on Everest.

"A team of experts and highly skilled guides will head there to monitor and devise an alternative plan if needed," said Himal Gautam, spokesman for Nepal's tourism department.

"We are trying to ensure that there are no delays, even drop supplies by a helicopter, so that routes can be prepared on schedule," he added.

Nepal is home to eight of the world's 10 highest peaks and attracts hundreds of climbers each spring, when temperatures are warmer and winds calmer.

A climbing boom has made mountaineering a lucrative business since Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay Sherpa made the first ascent in 1953.

The government has issued more than 900 climbing permits for various Himalayan mountains this season, including 410 for Everest.

A sea of tents to host more than 1,000 people -- foreign climbers and support staff -- has built up at the foot of Everest, readying to scale the 8,849-metre (29,032-foot) summit.

Expedition organiser Iswori Poudel, of Himalayan Guides Nepal, said that climbers would usually be doing acclimatisation climbs on Everest at this point.

"Most teams have reached the base camp or are on their way," he said. "Climbers are going to neighbouring peaks now for preparations."

Around 700 people reached Everest's summit last year from the Nepali side, according to the tourism department, with another 100 climbers believed to have reached the peak from the northern side, via China.

In 2023, three Nepali guides were killed when a falling block of glacial ice swept them into a deep crevasse as they were crossing the Khumbu icefall with supplies.

Autumn summits on Everest in 2019 were also thwarted by a serac.

In 2014, an immense tumbling wall of snow, ice and rock killed 16 Nepali guides on the icefall, one of the deadliest accidents in the Himalayas.

pm/pjm/ami

Tokyo's metropolitan government is encouraging staff to wear shorts to work to cut reliance on air conditioning, an official said Friday, as concerns grow over high energy costs linked to the Middle East War.

The loosened dress code is part of an upgraded version of "Cool Biz" -- an energy-saving initiative started by Japan's environment ministry in 2005 that encouraged bureaucrats to ditch ties and jackets in summer, and saw some turn up to work in Okinawan-style collared t-shirts. 

An energy crunch threatened by the Middle East war is "one of the factors" that prompted the Japanese capital to take it up a notch and start allowing its workers to don shorts this month, a Tokyo official who declined to be named told AFP. 

Already, some male workers in the Tokyo government office can be seen sporting shorts and T-shirts, local media footage showed earlier this week.

Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, who herself started the Cool Biz campaign as environmental minister two decades ago, is all in. 

This summer, "we encourage 'cool' attire that prioritises comfort, including polo shirts, T-shirts and sneakers and -- depending on job responsibilities -- shorts," she told reporters earlier this month, citing "a severe outlook for the supply and demand of electricity". 

The new Cool Biz initiative also includes a greater shift toward teleworking and starting work early, Koike added.

Last year Japan sweltered through its hottest summer since records began in 1898, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Temperatures rising to 40C and above have become so common that the agency unveiled an official designation last week for these extreme weather events, labelling them "cruelly hot" or "kokusho" days.

tmo/aph/fox

Four months ago, the stars seemed to be aligned for veteran left-winger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in his quest for an unprecedented fourth term as Brazilian president.

The 80-year-old was riding high in polls after staring down US President Donald Trump in a spat over the coup trial of former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro.

The economy was growing and unemployment was falling to record lows.

But a flurry of financial scandals and growing discontent over a cost-of-living crisis have eroded his lead over his right-wing rival, Flavio Bolsonaro, son of Jair Bolsonaro, now sitting in prison.

A survey by the polling firm Datafolha published on April 11 sent alarm bells ringing throughout the Lula camp.

For the first time it showed Bolsonaro edging out the incumbent in a presidential runoff, with the senator garnering 46 percent to 45 percent for Lula, although the pair remained locked in a statistical tie.

Worryingly for Lula, the Datafolha poll showed 51 percent of voters disapproving of his performance. 

"It's a warning sign, obviously," said Jilmar Tatto, vice president of the Workers' Party, which former metalworker Lula co-founded in 1980.

The younger Bolsonaro is running as a more moderate version of his father, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting to cling onto power after losing elections to Lula in 2022. 

Lula has launched a counteroffensive, highlighting improvements in health, education, and infrastructure since he succeeded Trump ally Bolsonaro.

The publicity effort is taking place on several fronts.

To allay concerns about his age, Lula has released videos of him lifting weights, using a treadmill and sprinting to meetings.

He has also issued a new call to arms in the face of Trump's intimidation of friend and foe alike. 

"We cannot allow the world to bow down to the behavior of a president who believes that he can impose tariffs on products, punish countries, and wage war by email or Twitter," Lula said recently in Germany.

- 'Barely surviving' -

Defending Brazil's sovereignty gave Lula a poll bump last year, when the United States slapped tariffs on its longtime ally for putting Trump's friend Bolsonaro in prison.

But in the months since, the mood in Brazil has shifted.

Rising prices for essentials like food and energy have taken center stage, particularly among younger voters.

"The market is incredibly expensive. Buying clothes is very expensive too. It's very shocking because you're not really living, you're just barely surviving," Yohana Freitas Barbosa, a 27-year-old administrative assistant in the capital Brasilia, told AFP.

Mariano Machado, an analyst at the consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft, warned that "any gap between the macroeconomic situation and voters' everyday experience with the cost of living will influence the vote, and Lula knows it."

To curb rising fuel prices caused by the Middle East war, the government has temporarily reduced taxes on diesel to zero.

But Lula has failed to quell feverish speculation about his poll slump.

For the first time, newspaper columnists are pondering a hypothetical scenario in which he might withdraw from the election. 

The ruling party has dismissed the idea and doubled down on its social agenda, which includes a proposal to cut the working week by four hours to 40 total.

"We are going to set the country's agenda and win the elections," Tatto said.

- Whiff of scandal -

A series of high-profile financial scandals have added to the president's woes. 

Police and Congress are investigating a major alleged pension fraud scheme, from which one of Lula's sons is believed to have benefited.

Another probe is looking at the links between a businessman at the heart of a major banking scandal and high-ranking public officials. 

While none of the investigations target the president, Brazilians' weariness with corruption "ends up tainting those in power," Edinho Silva, head of the Workers' Party, lamented.

For many on the right, Lula remains poisoned by the corruption scandals that marked his first two terms as leader between 2003 and 2010.

Lula himself spent 580 days in prison for corruption as part of the sprawling Lava Jato (Car Wash) probe, although his convictions were later annulled.

The lingering perception among some voters is "that the (Workers' Party) is more corrupt than the rest," Creomar de Souza, a politics professor at the Dom Cabral Foundation, told AFP.

rsr/cb/jgc

China's artificial intelligence boom is in full swing, with the release of a new large language model (LLM) by top startup DeepSeek on Friday highlighting the country's rapid progress despite US export restrictions on advanced microchips.

Here's a look at the companies, big and small, driving China's AI ambitions:

- Legacy players -

Chinese internet giants Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent are racing to invest in AI, using existing vast user bases and cloud infrastructure to their advantage.

Search engine provider Baidu, sometimes called China's Google, has been a vocal proponent of the potential of AI in the country for over a decade.

Although it has recruited prominent AI researchers and its "Ernie" tool was one of the country's first AI chatbots, Baidu's fortunes have remained tied to its massive search and online marketing business.

Alibaba, the e-commerce behemoth behind shopping platforms like Taobao, is known for its open-source "Qwen" AI models -- popular with programmers worldwide because they can be freely customised.

The Qwen chatbot mobile app had more than 200 million monthly active users in January, according to AI ranking site AICPB.

Top gaming and social media firm Tencent, which launched an AI model in 2023 and a chatbot the following year, is seen as a cautious player.

Tencent's founder, Pony Ma, recently vowed to increase investment in AI, reportedly calling it "the only field worth investing in" in January.

- Beyond TikTok -

ByteDance, the Chinese company behind TikTok, is increasingly shifting its focus to AI as pressure on its overseas social media business intensifies.

And it is going well: Doubao, ByteDance's AI chatbot, is the most popular of its kind in China, with over 100 million daily active users.

This year, the firm's slick AI video generator, SeeDance 2.0, raised concerns over copyright and potential future job losses with its cinematic-looking clips created using just simple prompts.

- China's AI hero -

Startup DeepSeek started life in 2023 as a side project of a data-driven hedge fund, but shook up the global AI scene with its "R1" model in January 2025.

DeepSeek's low-cost, high-performance R1 chatbot challenged assumptions of US dominance in what some have called the "Sputnik moment" for AI.

Its open-source approach has galvanised the country's AI industry and accelerated the global diffusion of Chinese models.

Its newest V4 model, released Friday, promises performance similar to leading closed-source models at lower cost, according to the company. 

DeepSeek-V4 features an ultra-long context of one million tokens and 1.6 trillion parameters for the Pro version -- measures that determine how much input the model can absorb and its decision-making ability. 

"In world knowledge benchmarks, DeepSeek-V4-Pro significantly leads other open-source models and is only slightly outperformed by the top-tier closed-source model, (Google's) Gemini-Pro-3.1," DeepSeek said in a statement on Friday.

- Startup 'tigers' -

The startups Zhipu AI, MiniMax and Moonshot AI are nicknamed China's "AI tigers" -- challenging legacy tech giants on AI foundation model research.

Zhipu AI emerged from the prestigious Tsinghua University and was initially known for its strong focus on computing research.

The firm is a major provider of chatbot tools to Chinese businesses, and the performance of its latest "GLM-5" model impressed developer communities.

MiniMax targets the consumer market with its multimedia tools, from AI companions to video generators.

Both Zhipu and MiniMax saw their stock prices soar when they went public in Hong Kong in January, but both have also faced challenges.

A year ago, Washington put Zhipu on its export control blacklist over national security concerns, while Disney and other US entertainment outfits are suing MiniMax for copyright infringement.

Moonshot AI's Chinese name, Yue Zhi Anmian, pays tribute to Pink Floyd's album "The Dark Side of the Moon", reflecting the rock music passion of its co-founder Yang Zhilin.

Its latest offering, "Kimi K2.5", is one of the most popular AI models on developer platform OpenRouter.

Kimi K2.5's success is reflected in the company's revenues. Moonshot AI reportedly earned its 2025 full-year revenue in just weeks since its launch.

ll-sam/kaf/lga

As DeepSeek releases its first major new artificial intelligence model in over a year -- DeepSeek-V4 -- here are five things to know about the Chinese startup:

- 'Sputnik moment' -

Founded by Liang Wenfeng in the eastern Chinese tech hub Hangzhou, DeepSeek started life in 2023 as a side project of Liang's data-driven hedge fund that had access to a cache of powerful AI processors made by US chip giant Nvidia.

It shot to global attention in January 2025 with the release of its R1 deep-reasoning large language model, which sparked a US tech share sell-off.

Industry insiders were stunned by R1's high performance -- at a level similar to ChatGPT and other leading US chatbots -- and DeepSeek's claims to have developed it at a fraction of the cost.

Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen described it as a "Sputnik moment" -- referencing the 1957 launch of Earth's first artificial satellite by the Soviet Union that stunned the Western world.

- Censorship concerns -

Like other Chinese chatbots, DeepSeek's AI tools eschew topics usually censored in the world's second-largest economy, such as the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.

That and data privacy concerns have led DeepSeek AI to be banned or restricted on government-issued devices in several countries, including the United States, Australia and South Korea.

However, its low cost and ease of deployment have made it a popular choice in developing countries, analysts say.

The company holds four percent of global market share for chatbots, according to web traffic analysis company Similarweb. ChatGPT dominates at 68 percent.

- Open source -

DeepSeek's systems are open-source -- meaning their inner workings are public, allowing programmers to customise parts of the software to suit their needs.

That is the same for other major Chinese AI players, including tech giant Alibaba, in contrast to the "closed" models sold by OpenAI and other Western rivals.

The Chinese government has trumpeted its lead in open-source AI technology, which it says can accelerate innovation.

"Chinese AI models are leading the way in the open-source innovation ecosystem," National People's Congress spokesman Lou Qinjian told policymakers this month.

- Startup boost -

The success of DeepSeek has galvanised China's AI scene, despite hurdles posed by rivalry with the United States, and fears of a global market bubble.

Shares in two leading Chinese AI startups, Zhipu AI and MiniMax, soared on their market debuts in Hong Kong this year, and it has been a similar story for Chinese chipmakers such as MetaX.

Shi Yaqiong and her team at Beijing-based Jinqiu Capital told AFP there has been a "clear surge" in enthusiasm around Chinese AI -- and competition among investors -- since the DeepSeek shock.

- Chip smuggling reports -

DeepSeek's rise has not been without controversy.

Reports, including in technology outlet The Information, say DeepSeek has been skirting a US ban on the export of top-end chips to China to train its new V4 model.

The Information said in December, citing six people with knowledge of the matter, that DeepSeek developed V4 using thousands of chips dismantled in third countries and smuggled to China.

DeepSeek did not respond to AFP's request for comment. Nvidia did not respond to a request for comment but told The Information that they had not seen any evidence of this and that "such smuggling seems farfetched".

ll-kaf-sam/fox

Bargain US carrier Spirit Airlines, which filed for bankruptcy in 2025 for the second time in a year, could be spared by a controversial potential White House rescue package.

Trump confirmed on Thursday that he was hoping Spirit could be saved, sparing thousands of jobs. 

"I think we'd just buy it," Trump said in the Oval Office. "They have some good aircraft, have good assets, and when the price of oil goes down, we'll sell it for a profit."

Trump's administration has been working on a potential $500 million package for the embattled airline, US media have reported in recent days.

Under a potential plan being discussed, the US government would make a loan to Spirit and receive warrants to take a large stake in the carrier, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Spirit had announced on February 24 an "agreement in principle" to restructure its debt with creditors, saying it expected to emerge from bankruptcy by early summer.

But only days later, the US-Israel alliance launched attacks on Iran, leading to a spike in oil prices.

That translated into a surge in jet fuel prices that proved to be "the straw that broke the camel's back," said Jan Brueckner, emeritus economics professor at the University of California, Irvine.

Jet fuel prices have more than doubled since the February 28 start of the war, prompting major US airlines to lower their profit forecasts, trim back on capacity growth plans or both.

As a no-frills carrier, Spirit adds pressure on larger airlines, which have responded with bare-bones "basic economy" offerings, according to Brueckner.

"It's beneficial to preserve this type of competitive airline that helps keep fares low," Brueckner said.

- 'Socialist Donald Trump' -

While a package sparing Spirit may benefit consumers, the potential solution has sparked blowback.

Critics include Arkansas Republican Senator Tom Cotton, who called the plan "not the best use of taxpayer dollars" in a post on X.

"If Spirit's creditors or other potential investors don't think they can run it profitably coming out of its second bankruptcy in under two years, I doubt the US government can either," Cotton said.

Tad DeHaven, a policy analyst at the Cato Institute, a free-market think tank, called the White House proposal a "mistake," ruing a solution based around "politically engineered financing."

The US bankruptcy process should move forward "whether that means reorganization, liquidation, or asset sales to other companies," DeHaven said in a blog post. 

"That outcome may be less tidy, but it's still preferable to quasi-nationalization." 

Other critics include Colorado Governor Jared Polis, a Democrat. 

"Now socialist Donald Trump is nationalizing the airlines," Polis said on X. "What industry will the government take over next under his socialist regime?"

While the US government has provided direct relief to companies before, such cases have tended to be sector-wide and crisis-related, such as support packages for automakers and banks during the 2008 financial crisis.

Even in these circumstances, such moves have been political controversial.

But Trump has tested US norms resisting government stakes in businesses, announcing ventures that give Washington shares in semiconductor company Intel and rare earth company MP Materials, among others.

The White House has argued that these are strategic sectors for the country.

Trump administration officials have also criticized predecessor Joe Biden's administration, which successfully blocked a proposed $3.8 billion takeover of the carrier by JetBlue, arguing it would harm consumers.

"I understand the airline is bankrupt because the previous administration blocked the merger, which was probably not a wise move," White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said earlier this week.

Economist Brueckner said airlines face sharper pressures due to the Iran war "and the administration chose to initiate the War, and therefore they may feel some need to shelter companies from the consequences of the war."

elm-jmb/sla/hol

As he threaded his way through the scrub in Serbia's southern hills, Slobodan Velickovic stopped to inspect the small indigo berries that have made the Balkans a key part of the global gin industry.

Although still months from the autumn harvest, the 34-year-old picker -- who has collected juniper here since childhood -- expertly plucks an almost ripe berry from the bush.

"Strong aroma, beautiful taste," he told AFP as he chewed the fruit.

In Serbia, juniper is not farmed but gathered from wild bushes by hand.

Growing over a wide range of the northern hemisphere, the hardy plant thrives on rocky slopes and in harsh conditions where few others can survive.

Despite that resilience, the presence of juniper has declined in parts of Europe in recent decades -- particularly in lowland areas where it once grew, under pressure from climate change, overgrazing and habitat loss.

For pickers like Velickovic, the increasing variability of weather extremes also impacts the harvest in his region.

"It depends on the year -- whether it's dry or rainy. Those conditions affect quality," he said -- a shift that can affect flavour during distillation.

- Changing harvest conditions -

But for Balkan producers, pressures elsewhere also offer opportunity.

"In conditions of reduced yields in parts of Western Europe, the Balkans are increasingly positioning themselves as an alternative source of supply," Serbia's chamber of commerce said.

Serbia, with a long tradition of juniper picking, exports around 1,000 tonnes of juniper annually, according to the chamber.

"The quality in the Balkans is exceptional," said Tommy Haughton of Beacon Commodities, a global juniper wholesaler.

Haughton said the region offers larger volumes at lower prices than other sources, including Italy, with long-standing supply networks built over generations.

But he warned that hotter summers and fewer very cold winters could affect future harvests, while forest fires can restrict access to picking areas and taint berries with smoke.

- Flavour should be consistent -

A rainy harvest can also pose a challenge for ginmakers trying to maintain flavour.

"As gin distillers, our entire business is built around you having a product that's the same yesterday as it was today," said Matthew Pauley, a researcher at the International Centre for Brewing and Distilling at Heriot-Watt University.

Rain during harvest can force berries to be mechanically dried with hot air.

This process can alter the volatile compounds in the berries, affecting what is later extracted during distillation and, in turn, the flavour, according to Pauley's research.

As a result, distillers might need to source juniper from other regions or, in extreme cases, modify a recipe.

"If we're doing our job properly, there should be no difference," he said.

- Centuries of experience -

Protecting the taste in the glass falls to distillers like Ivan Lakatos, who runs a craft gin producer in the Serbian village of Belegis.

"The quality of juniper doesn't depend on the size of the berry itself, but on the intensity of its flavour, where it was picked," he said, as vapours rise from a copper still in the basement behind him.

To compete with the region's dominant spirit, rakija -- a brandy most often made with plums -- it is vitally important to maintain quality in every one of the around 2,000 bottles of his Little Fat Gin he sells per year.

"We're proud of that, but we'd like that number to grow," he said.

For him, local sourcing remains key, with noticeable differences in taste between Serbian juniper and juniper from other parts of Europe.

As climate change continues to shift where crops can be grown, Pauley said juniper sourcing was likely to evolve as well.

"That shift isn't going to stop anytime soon. In fact, it's going to accelerate."

"One way or another, we're going to be forced to explore other regions that previously, maybe we haven't used."

But he said distillers were well versed in adapting to changes in their ingredients.

"Gin distillers have been rolling with the punches since the 16th century."

al/ach