Lobito Corridor: Africa's mega-project facing delivery test

Tokyo's Nikkei index soared Thursday to lead another strong rally across Asia stocks, fuelled by growing optimism the Iran war is close to ending and the revival of demand for all things AI.

Oil prices also held the week's steep losses due to hopes Washington and Tehran will conclude the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed since the start of March, choking off a fifth of the world's crude.

Risk sentiment got a huge boost Wednesday when President Donald Trump said an agreement was near, a day after he paused efforts to help stranded ships through Hormuz, which drew Iranian attacks and threatened their fragile ceasefire.

If "Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to" the war would be over, the US president said. But if not, the bombing would resume "at a much higher level and intensity".

He later told reporters: "We've had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it's very possible that we'll make a deal."

US news outlet Axios cited two US officials as saying both sides were close to agreement on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war, open the strait and set a framework for more detailed nuclear talks.

Iran has yet to respond to the US offer, with foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei telling local media it was "still under review".

Parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has taken the lead in negotiations, warned Washington trying to "force us to surrender".

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, a key figure in initial talks in Islamabad last month, said he was "very hopeful".

Oil prices were flat Thursday, having fallen around 10 percent over the previous two days.

Investors, who have largely remained optimistic that a deal can be reached, tracked another record day on Wall Street and pushed Asian markets higher.

The gains have also been helped by a fresh wave of cash back into the tech sector as traders snap up all things AI, helped by standout earnings from US giants including Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet.

Tokyo's Nikkei soared more than five percent as investors there returned from a long holiday, with tech investment titan SoftBank rocketing more than 15 percent while chip-linked firms Tokyo Electron and Advantest also ratcheted up big gains.

Seoul extended Wednesday's surge that took it past 7,000 points for the first time, with Samsung also up following its meteoric rise to pass the $1 trillion market capitalisation mark.

Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Taipei, Wellington, Manila and Jakarta also clocked up big gains.

The prospect of cheaper oil prices tempered worries about inflation, which also helped gold rally more than three percent Wednesday. 

Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management said "traders aggressively embraced the idea that the Iran war may finally be shifting from missile trajectories to negotiation tables, while the AI frenzy simultaneously poured jet fuel onto the risk rally". 

"The result was one of those rare sessions where nearly every macro domino fell in perfect sequence. Oil collapsed, bonds rallied, the dollar sank, gold exploded higher", and stocks surged.

Investors in Tokyo were also closely watching the yen after speculation of intervention by the Japanese government to prop up the beleaguered currency.

The unit, which has been hit by surging oil prices and a rush to the safe-haven dollar, hit a 10-month high against the greenback Wednesday, in the latest of a series of spikes in recent days that have fuelled rumours that officials have provided support.

The government spent $32-$38 billion buying yen in the market last Thursday, local media reported, quoting Bank of Japan data.

Atsushi Mimura, Japan's top currency official, on Thursday declined to comment, local media reported.

- Key figures at around 0230 GMT -

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 5.7 percent at 62,915.87 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 1.5 percent at 26,598.50 

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.2 percent at 4,167.62

West Texas Intermediate: FLAT at $95.08 a barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.1 percent at $101.32 a barrel

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 156.23 yen from 156.39 yen on Wednesday

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1756 from $1.1752

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3600 from $1.3594

Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.42 pence from 86.45 pence

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Australian authorities on Thursday reversed a ban on public watch parties in Melbourne's Federation Square for the 2026 football World Cup after the decision sparked an outcry.

The Melbourne Arts Precinct, which manages the square, had said it would stop hosting the big-screen events because of the risk posed by unruly fans, who have used flares in the past.

Jacinta Allan, premier of the state of Victoria, intervened to reverse the ban, which had been condemned by the country's football chiefs.

"I disagree with the decision -- and I am overturning it," Allan said in a statement.

"There's always a risk of bad behaviour from a few dickheads at every public gathering, but police and security will be on site and there'll be zero tolerance for it," she said.

"The World Cup should bring us together, not keep us apart."

Football Australia had condemned the ban, saying it would rob fans of the chance to follow their team together.

The Socceroos begin their World Cup against Turkey in Vancouver on June 13, followed by games against co-hosts the United States in Seattle six days later and Paraguay in California on June 25.

Melbourne Arts Precinct director Katrina Sedgwick said she "welcomed" the state's decision to help provide a safe site for watching the World Cup in Federation Square.

"We look forward to seeing the Socceroos back on the world stage, and on the Big Screen next month," she said in a statement.

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America's top diplomat, Marco Rubio, will visit the first US pope, Leo XIV, on Thursday, seeking to ease tensions between Washington and the Vatican while also promoting President Donald Trump's interests.

The US secretary of state flies in weeks after Trump's extraordinary criticism of Leo, the head of the world's 1.4 billion Catholics, over his anti-war stance.

Rubio, a devout Catholic, sought to play down the rift ahead of the private audience, which will be followed by talks with Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin.

For the Vatican's part, "we'll listen to him", Parolin told reporters on Wednesday, noting that Washington initiated the meeting.

- A lot to talk about -

The Trump administration had celebrated the election one year ago -- May 8, 2025 -- of Leo, the first US pontiff in history.

But its relations with the Holy See have since sharply deteriorated.

In an unprecedented attack, Trump last month took to social media to call the pope "WEAK on crime, and terrible for foreign policy".

His remarks came after Leo called for peace in the Middle East war launched by Israel and the United States, and condemned a threat by Trump to destroy Iranian civilisation as "truly unacceptable".

Before flying to Rome, Rubio said the trip had been planned before the clash, "and obviously we had some stuff that happened".

"There's a lot to talk about with the Vatican," he told reporters at the White House, noting particularly the issue of religious freedom, on which the Vatican and Washington agree.

At an event at the Vatican on Wednesday, Parolin said: "I imagine we'll talk about everything that's happened in recent days -- we can't avoid touching on these topics."

But he said they would also discuss international issues, including Latin America, Cuba and Lebanon.

The Holy See has long played an active role in Cuban diplomacy, while Rubio -- a Cuban-American -- has led the Trump administration's efforts to pressure the communist government.

Leo also knows Latin America well, having spent two decades as a missionary in Peru, even acquiring Peruvian citizenship.

- Pope being pope -

Despite the peace-making attempt, Trump again criticised the pope in an interview late Monday, alleging that Leo believes it is "OK for Iran to have a nuclear weapon".

"I think he's endangering a lot of Catholics and a lot of people," Trump said of the pontiff.

Asked about the latest comments on Tuesday, Leo said that the Catholic Church's mission was to "preach peace" and the Gospel.

"If anyone wishes to criticise me for proclaiming the Gospel, let them do so truthfully," he told reporters.

"The Church has spoken out against all nuclear weapons for years, so there is no doubt about that, and I simply hope to be heard for the sake of the value of God's word."

Parolin said Wednesday that attacking the pope "seems a little strange to me", adding: "The pope is being the pope."

Leo's nationality means his words carry more weight in Washington than those of his predecessors -- and he has used them, notably criticising the Trump administration's crackdown on immigration.

But it was the pontiff's increasing anti-war rhetoric that triggered Trump's ire.

The pope and Rubio met for the first time last year at the Vatican alongside US Vice President JD Vance, a Catholic convert, just days after Leo's election.

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Jalen Brunson spearheaded a late surge as the New York Knicks edged a razor-tight NBA playoff clash against the Philadelphia 76ers 108-102 to take a 2-0 lead in their Eastern Conference semi-final series on Wednesday.

Having been thrashed in game one, the underdog Sixers were without star man Joel Embiid, who was ruled out with multiple injuries just hours before tip-off.

But they put up a much fiercer fight at Madison Square, in a game featuring 25 lead changes -- the most for a playoff game in 13 years -- before the Knicks pulled decisively clear in the final minutes.

Brunson's clutch play -- including eight fourth-quarter points -- ensured victory, with the Knicks talisman joint top-scoring on 26 points.

"It's a playoff basketball game. You know, the game was ugly offensively," said Knicks coach Mike Brown.

"You give the Sixers a lot of credit. We knew that they were going to come out, they were gonna be physical."

The Sixers started brightly, taking a seven-point lead five minutes into the game that would prove to be the largest of the night.

In Embiid's absence, Tyrese Maxey stepped up with 15 points in the second quarter alone, as Philadelphia eked out a single-point half-time lead. Veteran Paul George was deadly from range, with five three-pointers.

But the Knicks' Karl-Anthony Towns came alive after the break, scoring 20 points plus 10 rebounds and seven assists, while OG Anunoby went 9-of-17 from the field for his 24 points.

With the scores level 99-99 and five minutes to go, Brunson applied the pressure just as the Sixers ran out of steam, losing their shooting touch.

Two Brunson field goals gave New York a four-point lead -- their biggest of the night to that point -- before Mikal Bridges' step-back shot made it a 9-0 run and a six-point lead.

Maxey made a late driving layup -- finishing with 26 points -- but it was not enough to close the gap.

"We played good enough defense to win that game, especially in the fourth," said Philadelphia head coach Nick Nurse, who bemoaned his team's ability to score late in the game.

"We played great offense. We just didn't shot-make."

The absence of Embiid, the 2023 league Most Valuable Player, ultimately told for the Sixers, who now face a steep uphill battle to reach the next round.

Embiid had been a key figure in the Sixers' upset of second-seeded Boston in the previous round, averaging 28 points in four games as the Sixers recovered from a 3-1 deficit.

But he was ruled unable to play due to right hip soreness and a right ankle sprain, leaving the Sixers sweating on his fitness for Friday, when the series continues in Philadelphia. 

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In an airy office in South Korea, workers comb through social media, uncovering AI-generated content whose growing sophistication is testing toughened election laws ahead of local polls.

Experts warn that cheaper, more advanced artificial intelligence models are driving the global spread of online disinformation -- a major concern in South Korea, which has adopted AI particularly rapidly.

The government strengthened the law in 2023 to counter the misuse of AI around elections, and has hired hundreds of staff to track and counter manipulated content ahead of local ballots on June 3.

But some say they feel like they are fighting an uphill battle.

"We can literally see how fast this technology evolves -- like how each new version of AI makes videos and audio look and sound even more convincing," disinformation monitor Choi Ji-hee said.

"Our job keeps getting harder and harder," she told AFP at the National Election Commission (NEC) headquarters in Gwacheon, just south of Seoul.

On a recent workday, Choi and 18 colleagues clicked through Instagram, YouTube and other platforms, as well as online chatrooms and "fan clubs" for local politicians, in search of content concocted by AI.

Recent finds include a fake TV news report claiming a mayoral candidate had made Time magazine's list of rising political leaders, and a slick, AI-produced K-pop song praising a politician while mocking his rivals.

Once authorities confirm the content is the work of AI, authorities can demand its removal and issue harsh punishments, including jail time in extreme cases.

In one corner, workers discussed how to dissect a suspicious video, mulling whether to separately extract its audio, key frames, facial images and background footage.

Nearby, data analyst Kim Ma-ru mapped where, when, and by whom fake materials had been distributed, helping Choi's team detect dubious content more quickly.

- 'Whack-a-mole' -

The local polls are the third major ballot in South Korea since an amended law to combat AI-fuelled election falsehoods was passed in 2023.

More than 45 percent of South Koreans use generative AI, according to government figures. ChatGPT maker OpenAI says the country has the most paid subscribers outside the United States.

At the same time, South Koreans consume more low-quality generative content -- "AI slop" -- than any other country, and reports of false AI-created content rose 27-fold between the general election in 2024 and the presidential campaign the following year.

"It's an exhausting job that can feel like a (game of) whack-a-mole," Kim told AFP.

"But it's important work -- there's a sense of civic duty in it."

AFP has debunked AI-generated election disinformation in South Korea, including a video of the 2025 presidential frontrunner Lee Jae Myung -- now the country's leader -- purportedly faking a hunger strike. 

Beyond fake content about candidates, conspiracy theories about vote-rigging in recent years have also dented public trust in elections.

Jailed ex-president Yoon Suk Yeol sent hundreds of armed troops to the NEC during his short-lived bid to impose martial law in late 2024, repeating widely disproven far-right claims of vote hacking.

On the street outside the office, pro-Yoon protesters have hung a banner reading: "Investigate the rigged elections immediately!"

Both Choi and Kim declined to be photographed or filmed, citing growing threats and online bullying targeting election workers.

- Strict laws -

"In such a short time, it has become so difficult for voters to tell what is real and what is not," said Jung Hui-hun, a digital forensic specialist at the NEC's cyber investigations unit, as he ran videos through state-developed software tools to detect AI imagery.

Officials say the programmes are about 92 percent accurate, with human experts reviewing the most sophisticated material.

Once confirmed, authorities demand that either the poster or the platform remove the content for violating the 2023 law, which bans AI material that involves candidates and looks realistic enough to confuse voters in the three months before a poll.

Repeat offenders, or those who create content deemed particularly harmful, can face up to seven years in jail or a maximum fine of 50 million won ($34,000).

"The rules may seem excessive to those outside South Korea, especially in places like the US that highly prioritise freedom of expression," Kim Myuhng-joo, director of the Korea AI Safety Institute, told AFP.

But as swiftly as South Koreans embraced AI, many grew aware of its dangers, Kim said, citing the election conspiracy theories and a public scandal around deepfake pornography targeting women and girls.

"Public consensus has formed that we need tough regulations over the use of AI when it comes to election transparency," Kim said. 

A survey last year showed 75 percent of South Koreans believed AI-generated content could sway election results, and nearly 80 percent supported stronger efforts to detect and punish its use.

Jung, the digital forensic specialist, acknowledged the country's response had "many limits" but voiced hope it would spur debate on how to tackle AI-fuelled disinformation.

"We're still trying to figure out what is the best solution... but I think we are moving forward -- slowly but surely," he said.

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Yerson Granados used to fish off Colombia's Caribbean coast for a living, but when he discovered the havoc he was wreaking on coral reefs, he changed his ways.

The 56-year-old from the city of Santa Marta now earns his keep saving coral, which is vital for marine biodiversity.

"We used to destroy them," Granados told AFP, his body half-submerged in the sea and diving goggles concealing his face.

"We didn't know it was a living being. They looked like rocks to us."

Forty-four percent of the world's coral species face extinction, mainly due to climate change, the International Union for Conservation of Nature estimated in 2024.

When he discovered the pressing need to preserve coral, Granados swapped his dynamite, nets and anchors for a diving suit, which he uses to plunge to the depths of the sea to attach coral fragments to an artificial reef in a bid to repopulate the area.

He was the first fisherman to retrain as an environmental defender under a pioneering project to replenish the Caribbean coral ecosystem.

CIM Caribbean Foundation estimates that it has planted 1.5 hectares worth of 20 different coral species thanks to the team of former fishermen.

The NGO is hoping to plant 36 hectares of coral by 2030, which scientific director Diana Tarazona calls reviving "underwater cities."

"Working with them (the former fishermen) means gaining insight into what lies beyond the literature, which is that innate knowledge they have" about the sea, she said.

A typical workday for Granados entails diving 10 metres below the surface with an oxygen tank to monitor the precious gardens.

The corals spend months growing in an incubator before transplantation.

Once underwater, they become "houses for the fish," he said.

Kevin Monsalvo, 26, has followed in the footsteps of Granados and said things are different for him since he learned more about the organism threatened with extinction.

"Life has changed quite a lot for me, because we didn't know what a coral was," he said.

"For me, a coral is life now."

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The chief executive of the Lobito Atlantic Railway (LAR) project to link southern African mines to an Angolan export port says his priority is the business of the operation, not the geopolitical tussle over Africa's minerals.

LAR holds a 30-year concession to operate the Benguela railway, a key artery of the planned Lobito Corridor linking Angola to the mining belt of the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a longer-term ambition to connect to Zambia.

Western governments have promoted the corridor as an alternative export route for critical minerals at a time when China dominates much of the region's mining and processing capacity.

But chief executive Nicholas Fournier told AFP in an interview in the port city of Lobito that his priorities are operational.

Around 70 percent of mines in the DRC are Chinese-owned and some are already using the line to ship copper and receive sulphur, which is used in copper processing, Fournier said.

End buyers, he said, are spread across regions.

"They are in the Americas, in Europe or in Asia," Fournier said. "So we are totally apolitical."

The company is owned by a consortium led by commodities trader Trafigura and Portuguese construction firm Mota-Engil, each holding 49.5 percent.

Belgian private rail operator Vecturis owns the remaining one percent.

Financing includes a loan of more than $500 million from the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), fuelling perceptions of Western backing.

"It is indeed a loan and we pay interest on it," Fournier said.

- High demand -

LAR began operations in 2023 and is responsible for freight traffic on the Angolan section of the line, moving mining-related cargo as well as supplying fuel and gas to the country's interior.

Passenger services are operated by Angola's state-owned railway company Caminho de Ferro de Benguela (CFB).

Much of the route is single track and it only doubles at stations, where trains can pass each other, a constraint that limits traffic and makes timetable discipline critical.

"In 2025, we ran 5,000 trains in Angola," Fournier said, adding that 90 percent were passenger trains and the rest freight for the domestic market and the DRC.

On the Congolese route, he said LAR can now run up to one "copper train" a day to Lobito and one "sulphur train" a day back toward the mines.

Copper accounts for the bulk of LAR's Congolese freight. The metal is shipped as cathode plates in sealed containers, representing about 95 percent of the volume from the DRC. 

LAR has also transported cobalt, packaged in one-tonne bags, and could carry other minerals either in bulk or packaged form.

"We receive a lot of proposals for manganese. For lithium, too. But for the moment, we are focusing on what is in highest demand: copper," Fournier said.

- 'Plan B' -

Scaling up will require more work on the Congolese side of the border, he said. 

The corridor's economics would improve if trains could be lengthened from around 15 wagons to 25 and potentially to 50, but that depends on track condition and infrastructure.

LAR is supporting DRC's state railway operator, SNCC, with expertise and a pre-financing mechanism to fund works on the track from the Angolan border to Kolwezi and on to Lubumbashi, the main city in the country's copper belt.

"It will take time, but we are confident that within two years, we will have a continuous line from Lobito to Kolwezi," Fournier said.

The Zambian segment of the Lobito Corridor -- often described as the missing link -- is not on LAR's near-term agenda, he added, citing the scale and cost of rehabilitating the rail infrastructure.

"We have been approached for numerous discussions regarding a possible extension to Ndola in Zambia, but at present, it is not really on my radar."

The interview came as Fournier was managing disruption from severe flooding in Angola's Benguela province 10 days earlier that he said would require weeks of repair work. 

"So we put a Plan B in place," describing a 350-kilometre (220-mile) road haul before the cargo can be transferred back onto rail. 

"Unfortunately, there's no other way than using trucks in this type of situation."

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The Lobito Corridor mega-project linking three African countries is shifting from blueprint to proving ground in the global race for critical minerals.

Linking Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia, it was pitched as the West's answer to China's dominance in African mining.

Backed by more than $2.7 billion in pledged investment, the corridor is meant to move copper and cobalt, vital to the energy transition. For now, it remains a work in progress.

- Rail at the core -

The project aims to develop rail infrastructure to transport large quantities of minerals extracted in southern DRC and northern Zambia to Angola's Atlantic Ocean port of Lobito for shipment to global markets.  

The governments involved and the European Union -- the project's largest foreign backer -- also want the corridor to drive regional development through farmland projects, logistics hubs and workforce training.

The corridor's backbone is the historic Benguela railway, which runs west to east from Lobito to the Congolese border.

Much of the line was destroyed during Angola's 1975-2002 civil war and rebuilt by a Chinese company until 2019. 

Three years later, a European consortium -- Lobito Atlantic Railway, or LAR -- won a 30‑year concession to operate the line, transport minerals and manage Lobito's mineral terminal. 

The Angolan rail system already links up with a line serving DRC's mineral-rich Lualaba province and is meant eventually to extend to Haut‑Katanga and into northern Zambia.

- US, Europe and China -

For years, the Lobito Corridor was billed as the biggest US infrastructure investment in Africa.

A US government agency, the Development Finance Corporation, provided a roughly $550-million loan to LAR to upgrade the railway and scale up mineral transport.

Washington's enthusiasm culminated in a late‑2024 visit to Lobito by President Joe Biden, a first for Angola after Barack Obama in 2015.

Donald Trump's return to the White House has clouded the picture. While he has openly coveted critical minerals, he has also favoured bilateral deals over large, multilateral ventures.

Europe has stepped firmly into the lead. Through the EU, its member states, the European Investment Bank and private companies, it has committed about 2 billion euros ($2.3 billion) to the project.

Just over a third is direct development aid, the EU's ambassador to Angola, Rosario Bento Pais, told AFP in Luanda.

"We don't want it to be just a transport corridor. We want it to be an economic development corridor that exactly will embrace all the development of the local economy and of the populations," she said. 

Although China lost its concession, Chinese mining firms are already using the corridor to move copper, LAR chief executive Nicholas Fournier said.

In late 2025, China signed a $1.4-billion agreement with Zambia and Tanzania to rehabilitate another line, the 1,800‑kilometre (1,120-mile) Tazara railway, securing long-term access to an Indian Ocean port for mineral imports.

- Why Lobito? -

Lobito, a port city of about 200,000 people some 500 kilometres (310 miles) south of Angola's capital Luanda, sits at the western end of the Benguela line.

Its bay hosts a commercial port, oil and gas terminals and the mineral port. Naturally sheltered, it allows year‑round shipping.

Port capacity far exceeds current traffic, sharply reducing vessel waiting times and cutting costs for exporters.

- Missing link -

Zambia, Africa's second‑largest copper producer, remains the corridor's missing piece.

An old rail line links the country's northern mining belt to Lubumbashi and Kolwezi in the DRC, but it requires a full overhaul -- a project estimated at $4 billion and 10 to 15 years of work.

Zambia "remains very interested", Pais said, but "the United States is no longer in the picture, at least for now."

Working with partners such as the African Development Bank and Italy, the EU is exploring another option: upgrading a road from northern Zambia to the Angolan town of Luacano, where minerals could be loaded onto trains bound for Lobito.

- Risks -

A newly created intergovernmental agency must still prove it can smooth customs bottlenecks and regulatory hurdles.

Political uncertainty looms, with elections scheduled in Zambia in August and in Angola in 2027, raising the risk of policy shifts.

In April, torrential rains damaged sections of the Angolan railway, forcing LAR to rely temporarily on trucking while repairs were carried out.

Critics warn the project will be seen as just another chapter in the global scramble for Africa's critical minerals unless it delivers tangible economic gains for communities in all three countries.

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Around 50,000 fans of K-pop superstars BTS gathered outside Mexico's National Palace on Wednesday to get a look at the group, who waved to the crowd from a balcony after meeting with President Claudia Sheinbaum.

BTS will perform shows in Mexico City on May 7, 9, and 10, with more than 135,000 tickets for the stadium showcase getting snapped up in a matter of minutes.

The group returned to the world spotlight in March after an almost four-year pause so its members could carry out their obligatory military service.

Kim Nam-joon, one of the members of the group, said to the crowd in Spanish: "I love you, I adore you. Thank you very much!"

"I already told them they have to come back next year," Sheinbaum said, later posting a photo with the group and holding their latest album "ARIRANG."

Lizeth Zarate, a coordinator for the Zocalo -- Mexico City's main square located in front of the presidential palace -- said the Wednesday crowd was around 50,000.

"They're my whole world," Estefany Victoriano, a 25-year-old secretary, told AFP.

Another onlooker, 18-year-old Zoe Perez, was on the verge of tears.

"I'm speechless, and it's a very beautiful feeling to see them in person. Since I couldn't get tickets, well, it makes me a little emotional," she said.

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Millions of Britons vote Thursday in local elections set to heap more pressure on beleaguered Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer and showcase the rise of hard-right and left-wing populists.

Voters across Scotland, England and Wales head to the ballot box in Starmer's biggest electoral test since his July 2024 general election landslide victory ended 14 years of Conservative rule.

Opinion polls predict grim results for Labour, which could amplify calls for Starmer, 63, to resign or finally face a long-rumoured party leadership challenge.

Nigel Farage's anti-immigrant Reform UK and the left-wing Greens, led by self-described eco-populist Zack Polanski, are expected to be the main beneficiaries of widespread disillusionment.

"It's a huge barometer for how the country is feeling about this political establishment," said Melanie Garson, associate professor of politics at University College London.

"We've got, for the first time, significant pressure on the main political parties across every single council."

Polls open at 7:00 am (0600 GMT) and close at 10:00 pm. Some results are expected overnight, but most will not come until later on Friday.

Around 5,000 local council seats, out of 16,000, are up for grabs across England, while in Wales and Scotland voters will elect new devolved parliaments.

Starmer swept to power two years ago following 14 years of largely chaotic Conservative rule defined by austerity, Brexit and the tanking of the economy under former prime minister Liz Truss.

But critics say he has swerved from one policy misstep to another, and he has been embroiled in a scandal over sacked US envoy Peter Mandelson, a former friend of late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Starmer has also failed to fulfil his main promise of spurring economic growth, with impatient Britons still suffering a cost-of-living crisis, including from high energy prices.

"The change hasn't been delivered, or change that has been delivered has been negative," Garson told AFP.

- Leadership challenge? -

Starmer said Wednesday there was a "clear choice" at the ballot box.

"Unity or division. Progress versus the politics of anger."

Labour has also fought back, unearthing racist remarks by some Reform candidates and antisemitic comments by certain Green hopefuls.

But Starmer is now one of the most unpopular prime ministers ever, and surveys suggest Labour will lose control of the devolved Welsh government in Cardiff for the first time since Wales got its own parliament 27 years ago.

A More in Common poll published Tuesday projected Reform is neck-and-neck with the pro-independence Plaid Cymru in Labour's former heartland.

Labour is also fearful of a drubbing in Scotland, where the Scottish National Party is expected to extend its 19-year control of the devolved parliament in Edinburgh.

YouGov has predicted Reform could even force Labour into third place there.

"The message is clear: if you want real change, you'd better vote for it, and we go into tomorrow feeling pretty optimistic about our prospects," Farage said.

Labour also looks set for big losses in London as the Greens pick up disaffected left-wingers in urban areas with a pro-Gaza message.

Pollster Robert Hayward has predicted the UK's ruling party could lose about 1,850 of the roughly 2,550 local authority seats it is defending.

Hayward has tipped Reform to take 1,550 seats from Labour and Kemi Badenoch's right-wing Conservatives -- mostly in white, working-class areas. The Conservatives are also bracing for the loss of traditional strongholds.

"The two-party era has moved into a multi-party era," Badenoch told news agency PA. "But the fact is none of these new parties or Labour have a plan for the country."

Britain's media is full of rumours that ex-deputy prime minister Angela Rayner or Health Secretary Wes Streeting could try to oust Starmer after the results.

Neither is universally popular within Labour, however, and would need the backing of 20 percent of the party's MPs to launch a contest.

Some Labour lawmakers are also reportedly planning to demand that Starmer set a date for his departure.

He has insisted he will lead the party into the next general election, likely in 2029.

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