End-of-week reports show price pressures across US economy

Rising import prices can increase the cost of raw materials and finished products that American businesses purchase from overseas. Import prices tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report do not include tariffs, though tariffs can still impact what exporters charge.

Import prices rose 1.1% from August to September and 8.1% from a year earlier — the largest 12-month increase since July 2022, when prices had risen by 8.8% over the previous year. The monthly increase was driven by higher prices for both fuel and nonfuel imports, with fuel prices rising much more sharply.

“Fuel is driving roughly 40% of September’s import price surge,” said Orphe Divounguy, founder of the Quantitative Research Group and former senior economist at Zillow.

Fuel import prices jumped 4.8% after declining in July and August, while nonfuel import prices rose 0.7%. From September 2025 to September 2026, fuel import prices increased 34.5%, including a 35.4% rise in petroleum and petroleum product prices and a 96.5% jump in natural gas prices — the largest annual increase for imported natural gas since June 2022.

Brent crude oil prices averaged roughly $114 per barrel in September, up from about $91 in August, while U.S. retail gasoline prices climbed to an average of $4.35 per gallon, according to the Energy Information Administration. 

Nonfuel import prices also recorded their largest annual increase since April 2022, though the cost of producing those goods can still be affected by energy prices.

Export prices rose 2.2% in September and 11.6% from a year earlier, their largest annual increase since July 2022. Higher export prices can boost revenue for American businesses selling overseas, but may also make their goods less competitive. 

The Producer Price Index, which measures prices charged by U.S. businesses for goods and services, rose 1.3% in September — the largest monthly increase since March 2022. Prices were also up 6.3% from a year earlier, the largest annual increase since December 2022.

Higher import prices can push up costs for American producers, which may pass those increases along to customers.

Energy accounted for even more of the producer price increase than the rise in import costs, according to Divounguy.

“My analysis estimates that energy accounted for about half the increase, while transportation and wholesale and retail margins added another third,” Divounguy said.

Businesses in the New York-Northern New Jersey region also reported weakening economic conditions in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's October Business Leaders Survey.

The survey's business activity index fell 12 points to -20.7, its lowest level since March. Forty-two percent of respondents said business conditions worsened during the month, compared with 22% who reported improvement. Employment held steady, but businesses became more pessimistic about the next six months, with an index measuring expectations for future activity falling into negative territory for the first time since December 2025.

Despite the decline in business activity, firms reported raising their selling prices at the fastest pace since 2022.

About 71% of firms reported paying higher prices, while only 40% reported charging customers more, which Divounguy noted suggests some businesses may be absorbing part of their rising costs rather than passing them along to customers, though the survey cannot determine how much.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate-setting committee is scheduled to meet at the end of October to decide whether to raise, lower or hold rates steady. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point in September, to a range of 3.75% to 4%, as part of its effort to bring inflation down.

“I still favor holding rates in October, but it’s a closer call,” Divounguy said. “The risk is that these cost increases keep spreading and people begin expecting inflation to stay higher for longer.”