Election 2026: U.S. Senate seat poll tightens to Cooper up 5% on Whatley

No state has a longer voting window than North Carolina. The 60-day period kicks off in two weeks, on Sept. 4, with absentee ballots that can be requested by any registered voter and mailed; historically, some are returned within a week. Early in-person voting is Oct. 15-31 and Election Day is Nov. 3.

In another closely watched statewide race, incumbent Democratic Justice Anita Earls leads former state Rep. Sarah Stevens, R-Surry, 47%-44%.

In a survey March 26-April 6 by the same pollster, Cooper led Whatley 50%-42% and Earls and Stevens were even at 43%. That poll had a credibility interval of 4.1%.

Friday’s poll from High Point University was another poor performance for the Trump administration. Asked if things are “generally going in the right direction or have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track,” 59% chose wrong track and 36% said right direction.

Approval rating for second-term Republican President Donald Trump was 42% with disapproval 54%. Congress was 22% approval and 65% disapproval, and the U.S. Supreme Court was 36% approval and 45% disapproval.

First-term Democratic Gov. Josh Stein scored 52% approval and 25% disapproval.

In last week's analyses, Cooper led Whatley 53%-42% in the Elon University Poll of 800 likely voters July 23-31 released Wednesday (+/- 5.6% margin of error); Cooper led 51.5%-39% in the Carolina Journal poll of 600 likely voters Aug. 9-10 released Wednesday (+/- 4% margin of error); and Cooper led 49%-42% in the Carolina Forward sampling of Aug. 3-6 released Monday (+/- 3.5% margin of error).

The latter poll difference remained exact from a May 4-8 sampling of 457 likely voters and Cooper increased an 11.1% lead from a May 10-11 sampling in the Carolina Journal poll. Elon’s poll in April did not measure vote preference; rather, it measured the candidates' recognition.

This U.S. Senate seat is viewed as a major player nationally in the quest for a majority in the chamber. Republicans have 53 seats today. In no particular order, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, Maine, Iowa, New Hampshire, Alaska, Texas and Montana are the other top battlegrounds among 35 races.

North Carolinians will choose a U.S. senator, all 14 members of the U.S. House, and all 170 members of the General Assembly.

Republicans are 5-for-5 in North Carolina's U.S. Senate races since losing to the late Kay Hagan in 2008. Democrats chase back to 1998 for the last time winning a Senate seat at the midterms. Yet Cooper, a career politician since 1986, counters with statewide wins in four attorney general races and two gubernatorial races – all from 2000 to 2020.

Republicans in statewide races for this decade – 2020, 2022 and 2024 – are 32-10 against Democrats, a party with significantly declining voter registrations for more than 20 consecutive years.

Cooper and Whatley have two of the most opposite ends of supporters imaginable.

At the North Carolina Democratic Party state convention earlier this month, the keynote speaker was Democratic Socialists of America supporter U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. That's a group rising within the national party with a desire not only for ideological social reforms but also restructuring that includes abolishing the U.S. Senate; having Congress pick the president and U.S. Supreme Court; defunding the Pentagon; and allowing all residents regardless of citizenship to vote.

On the other side, Trump picked Whatley to lead the Republican National Committee ahead of his bid for the White House in 2024. He's delivered a second term based on an "America first" agenda; strong military; border security that helps infrastructure costs in education and healthcare; energy independence; school choice; and cutting taxes for all socioeconomic levels.