Election 2026: Marist Poll provides spark of optimism for underdogs

The margin of error is +/- 3.8%.

Taxpayers and registered voters of North Carolina are impacted by the election and policies that come with candidates or their parties. Voters in North Carolina have been casting ballots since Sept. 4 when absentee ballots went into the mail.

Voters will choose a U.S. senator, all 14 members of the U.S. House, and all 170 members of the General Assembly. One state Supreme Court seat and a number of judges, district attorneys, and county level offices are on the state's second-longest ballot of the four-year cycles.

Heightened national attention is on the race to succeed Republican U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis, and the Republicans’ quest to win the U.S. House district in the northeastern-most corner of the state for the first time since 1882. Another gaining attention late because of the censure on U.S. Rep. Chuck Edwards, R-N.C., is the far southwestern corner of the state.

The Marist Poll generated a 53%-41% decision for Democrats on a generic congressional ballot. That means no names were attached. The independents, also known as North Carolina’s largest voting bloc, pushed the difference to 57%-32%.

On handling issues, the poll respondents chose Democrats over Republicans 42%-34% on the economy; 40%-27% on gas prices; and 42%-36% on foreign policy. Even immigration went to Democrats 41%-38%.

Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley have since late July 2025 headlined the midterms from Murphy to Manteo. Campaign spending has been high, and advertisements in the stretch run plenty negative though yet to clear the famed ad supporting Republican Jesse Helms against Harvey Gantt.

Then, too, “Hands” was rolled out eight sleeps before Election Day.

Cooper, the two-term governor with 38 years in public office, gets the “leans Democrat” from both the Cook Political Report and 270towin.

History favors Whatley based on party. Tillis, Richard Burr and Ted Budd have made Republicans 5-for-5 since Democrat Kay Hagan won election to the U.S. Senate in 2008.

This U.S. Senate seat is viewed as a major player nationally in the quest for a majority in the chamber. Republicans have 53 seats today. In no particular order, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, Maine, Iowa, New Hampshire, Alaska, Texas and Montana are the other top battlegrounds among 35 races. Two of those are special elections, the other 33 are in regular rotation.

Republicans' 220-215 edge in the U.S. House of Representatives won in November 2024 is today 218-214 with one independent formerly Republican caucusing with his former party, and two vacancies. North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District is considered pivotal to Republicans retaining majority.

In U.S. House of Representatives races, two-term Democratic Rep. Don Davis is trying for the second time to defeat Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout in the 1st Congressional District. Cook Political Report’s most recent update predicts the race leans to Buckhout; the 270towin platform calls it a toss-up.

Republicans have lost the map variations of the northeastern corner of the state 71 straight times. In the General Assembly last October, Republicans redrew the 1st and 3rd districts to create advantage.

The other House toss-up from 270towin is the 11th Congressional District, where Edwards faced ethics complaints and dropped his campaign in the summer. State Rep. Jennifer Balkcom, R-Henderson, was the ballot choice of the party to replace him and take on the well-financed Democratic challenger Jamie Ager.

Cook Political Report has the race leaning Republican.

For Cook Political Report, nine races are solid Republican, and three races are solid Democrats. Each is a reelection bid, with Republican Reps. Dr. Greg Murphy, Virginia Foxx, Addison McDowell, David Rouzer, Rev. Mark Harris, Richard Hudson, Pat Harrigan, Brad Knott and Tim Moore expected to advance with Democratic Reps. Deborah Ross, Valerie Foushee and Alma Adams.

Of that dozen, the 270towin breakdown of safe, likely, leans or toss-up are all safe with exception of Hudson being likely. He’s up against retired Army Maj. Richard Ojeda.

The Marist Poll is run by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion at Marist University in Poughkeepsie, N.Y. The research gets high ratings from independent poll-tracking organizations. The Marist Poll is a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s Transparency Initiative.

The Cook Political Report bills itself as providing “independent, nonpartisan analysis of elections and campaigns for the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, governors and president as well as American political trends.” Additionally, the report says it is “the preeminent prognosticator and producer of federal and state election ratings and is routinely sourced by national and local media, political professionals, educators and researchers.”

Similarly, 270toWin bills itself as nonpartisan aggregating polls “and professional election projections, complementing that with relevant news and original content.” It is not "financed or owned by any political party, industry group or lobbyist.”