Cyber, nuclear, invasion? What is Trump threatening in Iran

(The Center Square) – The U.S. and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, President Donald Trump announced Tuesday evening, bringing a pause to the more than month-long conflict with the Islamic Republic.

The ceasefire comes after the Pakistani government submitted a two-week proposal that includes Iran agreeing to an “immediate and safe opening” of the Strait of Hormuz.

The president said the U.S. has agreed to “suspend the bombing” attacks on the Islamic Republic for “a period of two weeks.” He calls it a double-sided ceasefire, underscoring that the U.S. has already “met and exceeded all military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive agreement concerning long term peace with Iran, and peace in the Middle East.”

Notably, the president didn’t indicate whether Israel, which is engaged in Operation Roaring Lion against Iran, will participate in the ceasefire as well.

However, Trump appears optimistic about a peace proposal from Iran, saying the two weeks would allow time to finalize an agreement.

“We received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two-week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

The announcement of the ceasefire came just over an hour before Trump’s 8 p.m. Eastern time deadline, after giving the Islamic Republic 10 days to make a deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Earlier Tuesday, the president issued a dire warning to Iran, saying that a “whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” if Iran didn’t agree to a deal.

There were multiple reports overnight that the U.S. targeted several Iranian military sites on Kharg Island, striking ammunition storage, radars and bunkers on the vital Iranian island. The island, located in the Persian Gulf off the southwest coast of Iran, hosts up to 90% of the nation’s oil exports.

Last week, the president remarked that the conflict was winding down, estimating only two to three weeks left of fighting.

Anthropic on Tuesday said its yet-to-be-released artificial intelligence model called Claude Mythos has proven keenly adept at exposing software weaknesses.

Mythos has laid bare thousands of vulnerabilities in commonly used applications for which no patch or fix exists, prompting the San Francisco-based AI startup to form an alliance with cybersecurity specialists to bolster defenses against hacking.

"We have a new model that we're explicitly not releasing to the public," Mike Krieger of Anthropic Labs said at a HumanX AI conference in San Francisco.

Instead, Anthropic is letting cybersecurity specialists and engineers in the open-source community work with Mythos to use the model as a defensive weapon "sort of arming them ahead of time," Krieger explained.

Leaps in AI model capabilities have come with concerns about hackers using such tools for figuring out passwords or cracking encryption meant to keep data safe.

The oldest of the vulnerabilities uncovered by Mythos dates back 27 years, and none were ostensibly noticed by their makers before being pinpointed by the AI model, according to Anthropic.

Mythos is the latest generation of Anthropic's Claude family of AI, and a recent leak of some of its code prompted the startup to release a blog post warning it posed unprecedented cybersecurity risks.

"AI models have reached a level of coding capability where they can surpass all but the most skilled humans at finding and exploiting software vulnerabilities," Anthropic said in a blog post.

"The fallout -- for economies, public safety, and national security -- could be severe."

Software vulnerabilities exposed by Mythos were often subtle and difficult to detect without AI, according to Anthropic.

As an example, it said Mythos found a previously unnoticed flaw in video software that had been tested more than 5 million times by its creators.

- Project Glasswing -

As a precaution, Anthropic has shared a version of Mythos with cybersecurity companies CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks, as well as with Amazon, Apple and Microsoft in a project it dubbed "Glasswing."

Networking giants Cisco and Broadcom are taking part in the project, along with the Linux Foundation that promotes the free, open-source Linux computer operating system.

"This work is too important and too urgent to do alone," Cisco chief security and trust officer Anthony Grieco said in a joint release about Glasswing.

"AI capabilities have crossed a threshold that fundamentally changes the urgency required to protect critical infrastructure from cyber threats, and there is no going back."

Approximately 40 organizations involved in the design, maintenance or operation of computer systems are said to have joined Glasswing.

Project partners are to share their Mythos findings, according to Anthropic, which is providing about $100 million worth of computing resources for the mission.

Early work with AI models has shown they can help find and fix software and hardware vulnerabilities at a pace and scale not previously possible, according to Grieco.

"The window between a vulnerability being discovered and being exploited by an adversary has collapsed -- what once took months now happens in minutes with AI," said Crowdstrik chief technology officer Elia Zaitsev.

"Claude Mythos Preview demonstrates what is now possible for defenders at scale, and adversaries will inevitably look to exploit the same capabilities."

Anthropic said it has had discussions with the US government regarding Mythos despite a decree by the White House in February to terminate all contracts with the startup.

That directive was put on hold by a federal court judge while a legal challenge by Anthropic works its way through the courts.

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Rory McIlroy seeks a historic repeat victory starting Thursday at the 90th Masters, while world number one Scottie Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau lead a host of challengers in firm and fast conditions.

Second-ranked McIlroy completed a career Grand Slam by capturing the green jacket at Augusta National last year, but only Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods have won back-to-back green jackets, Woods the most recent in 2001-2002.

"Maybe not the largest field in golf but it's the strongest," McIlroy said. "I know that I can do it now, so that should make it a little easier for me to go out and play the golf I want to play."

McIlroy suffered an injury scare last month when back pain prompted his withdrawal at Bay Hill. But he competed the following week and has rested since.

"I've taken the last three weeks to make sure I'm 100 percent coming in here, which I am," McIlroy said.

"I feel comfortable on the golf course, feel comfortable with my game. It has been a good three weeks at home getting ready physically and mentally and just trying to prepare for everything this week is going to throw at me."

Scheffler, last year's British Open and PGA Championship winner, has failed in two Masters repeat bids.

"Defending can always be difficult, but I think that's mostly just the odds of winning a tournament in back-to-back years," Scheffler said. "That's just extremely challenging, especially when you look at these major championships."

Scheffler, the 2022 and 2024 Masters winner, has been off for three weeks as wife Meredith gave birth to son Remy on March 27.

"Game feels like it's in a good spot," Scheffler said. "I feel rested and ready to go this week."

DeChambeau, who edged McIlroy for the 2024 US Open title, was in the final Sunday group last year at the Masters when the Northern Ireland star made history.

"It's great if we can continue to have a rivalry," DeChambeau said. "It kind of helps create more buzz around the game of golf.

"It's one of those things like I got him at Pinehurst, he got me here, and I hope there's more of those to come because it's great for the game."

DeChambeau, ranked 24th, won LIV Golf titles in Singapore and South Africa last month and likes speed at Augusta.

"If it's firm and fast, the greens are going to be even more difficult to hit than they already are," DeChambeau said. "I feel really good. It's just about going out and executing."

- 'Be more precise' -

Precision will be at a premium with no rain in the forecast to soften the course.

"You have to be more precise when it's firm," American Kurt Kitayama said. "Whenever it's firm and fast makes any course difficult, and especially with how sloped the greens are, it's going to be even more penalizing missing your spots."

Dustin Johnson, the 2020 Masters champion who holds the 72-hole Masters record score of 20-under par 268, is already seeing strong bounces on the course.

"Makes it a little bit more difficult," Johnson said. "You have to be spot on with pretty much all your clubs and where they're going, especially if it gets firm. The landing areas get really small."

Other contenders include world number three Cameron Young, who won The Players Championship last month; England's fourth-ranked Tommy Fleetwood, last year's Tour Championship winner, and England's ninth-ranked Justin Rose, last year's Masters runner-up.

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(The Center Square) – One group of Americans strongly supports President Donald Trump's use of tariffs: attendees of the annual Conservative Political Action Conference.

As the 2026 election approaches, tariffs have become a controversial issue, with many Republican voters rallying behind them even as most Americans remain doubtful. The divide could play a role in how Americans decide the midterm elections.

The CPAC conference is often viewed as an early indicator of Republican sentiment. Although Trump did not attend this year’s late-March gathering, he followed the proceedings and shared the results of several CPAC straw poll questions, including one on tariffs, on social media.

A survey conducted by McLaughlin & Associates asked CPAC attendees if they supported Trump's "use of tariffs to reduce America’s trade deficit and create a more level playing field for American workers and businesses."

Overall, 91% of respondents said they supported Trump's tariffs, with 69.1% strongly in favor and 21.9% somewhat supportive. Seven percent disapproved, including 2.9% who strongly disapproved. A total of 1,630 CPAC attendees participated in the survey.

These numbers show far greater support for Trump's import tax policy among CPAC attendees compared to the broader public. For example, a January Pew Research Center poll found that 60% of Americans disapproved of Trump's import tax hikes, while 37% approved and 13% strongly approved. Support was higher among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (71%), with 28% disapproving.

The Center Square’s Voters' Voice Poll, conducted in early March, showed that most voters believe they bear at least some of the costs from Trump's tariffs. About 42% said American consumers primarily pay, while 38% felt the burden is shared among all parties involved in trade. Only 12% thought foreign countries pay, and just 8% believed American businesses absorb the costs.

Republicans were less likely than other voters to say consumers bear the costs: 27% said consumers pay, 21% said foreign nations pay, 9% said American businesses pay, and 43% said all parties share the higher costs.

A March Harris Poll conducted for the Guardian found that 64% of Republicans believed Trump's tariffs contributed to rising prices, compared to 77% of Democrats and 67% of independents.

In April 2025, Trump unilaterally imposed the highest tariffs in nearly a century. Tariffs are taxes on imported goods paid by importers to U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

In February, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump exceeded his authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs worldwide. The court did not decide the fate of $166 billion in import taxes already collected, leaving the U.S. Court of International Trade to oversee ongoing litigation over refunds.

At the same time, the states and small businesses that challenged Trump's IEEPA tariffs have also challenged Trump's latest 10% global entry tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. That challenge remains pending before the Court of International Trade.

Trump has defended the tariffs, saying the revenue could fund increased military spending and other goals, including a tariff refund check for some Americans. Experts have questioned whether tariffs will raise enough money to cover these costly spending plans.

Trump has also said the tariffs will help bring back manufacturing jobs lost to low-wage countries over the past few decades.

Multiple economic studies have found that U.S. businesses and consumers are bearing the brunt of Trump's tariffs. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York report, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, and a December 2025 Duke University study all concluded that Americans are paying nearly the entire cost of tariffs, not foreign nations, as the White House has said.

The Yale Budget Lab previously estimated Section 122 tariffs could cost the average U.S. household $600 to $800 annually.

Scottie Scheffler is getting plenty of sleep and practice time for this week's Masters even with infant son Remy and his family at Augusta, although green jacket safety causes concern.

World number one Scheffler, seeking his third Masters title in five years and fifth major victory overall, has not played the past three weeks with wife Meredith giving birth to son Remy on March 27.

Scheffler has enjoyed being a dad again after two-year-old Bennett but realizes he must set aside family life to focus on this week's challenge at Augusta National.

"Once you drive down Magnolia Lane, everything else melts away and you get to be here and be focused," Scheffler said.

"This place is almost a challenge in a sense that you need to be able to get your stuff done and go home because I could camp out on that range for days and days and continue to practice."

The 29-year-old American is the reigning British Open, PGA Championship and Olympic champion and can compete a career Grand Slam with a victory in June at the US Open.

This week, his wife's caretaking is nearly as crucial as anything a caddie could offer on the course.

"I'm getting plenty of sleep. My wife is a trooper," Scheffler said. "Having a newborn is always an interesting thing, but Remy is so young right now, they sleep a lot of the day. I think he's used to being in the womb at this point. Yeah, I've been able to get a decent amount of sleep."

Scheffler, however, has had to help out, as when he was wearing his green jacket on Sunday while holding Remy as he walked into the Augusta National clubhouse.

"If I'm wearing it near him, I'm just hoping he doesn't ruin it or anything like that," Scheffler said. "Throw up on it. Who knows?"

It's a battle for balance of life and work that has Scheffler concerned about keeping his private life private, especially for his children.

"Sometimes I think it feels like we live almost two separate lives, where I have this life where I come out here and play and compete, and sometimes my friends are brought into that arena that I kind of live in," Scheffler said.

"I still feel like I go to work each day. It doesn't feel like I'm sitting at a desk obviously. I love my job, but I don't feel any different than I did when I was a kid.

"So I don't see why I would need to live any different or do anything like that. There's no reason that my kids need to be on TV or on my Instagram or whatever it is.

"My kids need to have a normal upbringing or as normal as I can, and we'll go from there."

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American hedge fund Pershing Square, led by the activist investor Bill Ackman, announced Tuesday a transaction valuing Universal Music Group at up to 55 billion euros, saying it believed the music giant was undervalued by stock markets.

Under the proposal, Pershing would merge UMG with Pershing Square SPARC Holding, an acquisition company that would be listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

Current UMG shareholders could exchange their holdings for a mix of cash and shares in the new entity, or for all cash or all shares, Ackman said in a letter to the UMG board.

Pershing Square said its cash and stock offer to Universal shareholders was worth 30.40 euros ($35.15) a share, valuing Universal with its stable of top artists -- including Taylor Swift, The Weeknd and Lady Gaga -- at around 55 billion euros.

That amounts to a premium of 78 percent to its April 2 closing price.

In the case where shareholder opt to cash out, they would receive 22 euros per shares, a premium of 29 percent.

But, according to an AFP calculation, Pershing would not hold a majority of shares under either scenario.

To finance the deal, Pershing expects to provide 2.5 billion in euros and to raise 5.4 billion euros through a debt offering by the newly formed entity. Another 1.5 billion euros in proceeds would come from monetizing UMG's holding in Spotify.

The sale of the Spotify stake will also generate 750 million in proceeds for UMG artists, Ackman said in the letter.

Pershing Square said in a statement that it had submitted the offer to Universal's board, hoping to close the deal by the end of 2026.

"UMG's stock price has languished due to a combination of issues that are unrelated to the performance of its music business," Ackman said in a statement.

Ackman pointed to uncertainty about French conglomerate Bollore's plans for its 18 percent stake in Universal, a delay in listing on the US stock market, and "underutilization of UMG's balance sheet" among concerns that have held back the shares' performance.

Before going public with the proposal, Ackman reached out to Bollore with a "high level" summary of the deal. The French company expressed support, Ackman told a conference call with analysts.

"Without Bollore, we don't have a transaction," Ackman said. "The words I got back were 'these are music to my ears' and with that, we decided to go forward."

Bollore did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Pershing Square bought 10 percent of UMG from the French media giant Vivendi, also owned by Bollore, in August 2021. But Pershing's holding is now about 4.7 percent, according to US media.

If the merger goes ahead, the new company would aim to increase its dividend payouts by two percent each year and maintain borrowing of 2.5 times its operating profit (EBITDA), Pershing Square said in the letter.

Universal shares ended Tuesday's session at 19.06 euros, up 11.4 percent.

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Acting US Attorney General Todd Blanche on Tuesday defended investigations of individuals Donald Trump "has had issues with" and said only the president knows why his predecessor, Pam Bondi, was fired.

"We have thousands of ongoing investigations and prosecutions going on in this country right now," Blanche said at his first press appearance since being named interim head of the Justice Department last week.

"And it is true that some of them involve men, women and entities that the president, in the past, has had issues with and believes should be investigated," he said.

"That is his right, and indeed, it is his duty to do that."

Bondi was fired last week after reportedly drawing Trump's ire by falling short in efforts to prosecute perceived Trump political opponents such as former FBI director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James.

Blanche, Trump's former personal lawyer, said only the president knows why Bondi was dismissed.

"Nobody has any idea why the attorney general is no longer the attorney general and I'm the acting attorney general, except for President Trump," he said.

Blanche dismissed allegations the Justice Department was being "weaponized" against Trump's enemies and alleged there was "weaponization" of the department by the Biden administration "the likes of which had never been seen in history."

"You had a president who was indicted four times by this department," he said in a reference to charges brought against Trump by Special Counsel Jack Smith.

Trump was accused by Smith of seeking to overturn the results of the 2020 election won by Democrat Joe Biden and mishandling classified documents. Both cases were dropped after Trump won the 2024 presidential election.

"What we've been doing for the past 14 months is changing this department," Blanche said. "People say the president wants to go after his political enemies. No, the president has said time and time again that he wants justice."

Blanche also defended the firing of scores of Justice Department prosecutors who had worked on the criminal cases against Trump.

"If you were a prosecutor and you were trying to prosecute your boss you have ethical duties as a lawyer that I think prevent you from continuing to work in that environment," he said.

A number of career prosecutors fired since Trump took office have filed lawsuits claiming wrongful dismissal.

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(The Center Square) – A federal judge has ordered California to pay $4.52 million in attorneys’ fees to the Thomas More Society, which challenged a state policy related to student gender identity in the case Mirabelli v. Bonta.

In a court order, U.S. District Judge Roger Benitez of the Southern District of California granted the full fee request of $4.52 in legal fees to the Thomas More Society, the law firm representing the two public school teachers in the case.

Benitez said California has continued to challenge aspects of the ruling, including a recent motion seeking to modify the injunction. The court detailed a pattern of what it called “litigation intransigence” by state defendants, including repeated motions to dismiss after prior ones were denied and filing an appeal without waiting for a ruling.

Benitez described the ongoing litigation as based on “the thinnest of arguments.”

The case follows litigation that began in 2023 over California policies requiring school staff to withhold information from parents about students’ gender transitions.

The lawsuit challenges guidance critics describe as “gender secrecy” policies, which allow school officials to withhold information from parents about a student’s request to change names, pronouns or other gender-related identifiers at school.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in a 6-3 decision in March that parents challenging the policy are likely to succeed in their constitutional claims.

“Thomas More Society will continue to enforce the Mirabelli ruling nationwide, and any school district or state that tries to cut parents out of their children’s lives should expect the same result,” Peter Breen, executive vice president and head of litigation at Thomas More Society, said in a statement.

The Center Square reached out to the California Department of Education for a comment, but has not received a response.

Pakistan made a last-minute proposal Tuesday to avert catastrophic US attacks on Iran, hours ahead of a deadline set by President Donald Trump who warned a "whole civilization will die tonight".

The White House said it was aware and would respond to the proposal by Pakistan, which has sought to mediate after more than five weeks of US and Israeli attacks on Iran.

"Diplomatic efforts for peaceful settlement of the ongoing war in the Middle East are progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results in near future," Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif wrote on X.

He appealed directly to Trump to extend his deadline set for 8:00 PM Washington time (midnight GMT) by two weeks.

In turn, he asked Iran to commit for two weeks to fulfilling Trump's key demand -- reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the vital gateway for global oil which Tehran closed in retaliation for the war.

The latest threats from Trump, shocking even by his own provocative standards, brought disbelief and warnings that he was encouraging genocide -- potentially one day leading to war crimes charges against US servicemembers who comply.

"A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

The rhetoric was an escalation from a profanity-laden post two days earlier, on Easter Sunday, in which Trump threatened to destroy all bridges and power plants in the country of 90 million -- a war crime unless proven that the sites are mostly for military use.

Pope Leo XIV said that "this threat against all the people of Iran" was "truly unacceptable".

- Threat of new type of attacks -

Speaking in Budapest, Vice President JD Vance said the United States had tools "that we so far haven't decided to use" against Iran, without explaining further.

The White House later denied to AFP that Vance was alluding to nuclear weapons. 

The United States and Israel were striking key infrastructure even before Trump's deadline, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirming attacks on railways and bridges he said were "used by the Revolutionary Guards".

The Israeli military also offered a rare statement of regret after it acknowledged damaging a synagogue in Tehran, saying it had been targeting a senior Iranian commander.

Iran, run by Shia Muslim clerics, is home to around 100 synagogues for its historic Jewish minority.

First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said Iran was prepared "for all scenarios" from the United States.

"No threat is beyond our preparedness and intelligence," he added.

Infrastructure attacks reported by Iranian authorities Tuesday included a US-Israeli strike on a bridge outside the city of Qom and another on a rail bridge in central Iran that killed two people.

Regional authorities also said a US-Israeli strike shut down a key highway in northern Iran connecting the city of Tabriz with Tehran.

The Mizan news agency additionally reported a strike on railway tracks in Karaj, outside Tehran.

- Death 'not a joke' -

University student Metanat, whose classmate was killed two weeks ago in an attack, told AFP she felt "terrified and so should everyone else in the country".

The 27-year-old, who declined to give her last name, said as far as Trump's ultimatums were concerned, "some people think they are a joke", but "death is not a joke".

Iranian pensioner Morteza Hamidi said that among many emotions, he felt "gloomy for the future of the country after the war".

The 62-year-old added that he had seen Trump back down too many times to take his words seriously: "We are now numb to his threats".

State media published photos purporting to show groups of Iranians forming human chains to protect power plants as the hours to the deadline ticked down.

The show of patriotism in the face of attacks came several months after Iran's cleric-run government cracked down violently on mass protests, with rights groups reporting thousands of deaths.

As the deadline neared, Israel warned citizens of an increased risk of Iranian inbound attacks.

Kuwait urged its citizens to remain indoors from midnight until 7:00 am, while Bahrain's main port said it would be suspending operations starting early Wednesday.

The United States and Israel said that they attacked Iran to degrade its military capacity. Trump has alleged that Iran was near building an atomic bomb, an assertion not backed by the UN nuclear watchdog and most observers.

Since being attacked on February 28, Iran has responded by taking charge of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil normally flows. 

The move has sharply driven up global oil prices and put intense pressure on Trump -- who has made reopening the strait his foremost goal.

At the UN Security Council, Russia and China vetoed a resolution on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a text already diluted to remove the green light Gulf states had sought to use force to protect the key shipping lane.

- Attack on oil island -

Apart from the infrastructure attacks, strikes were reported on Kharg island, a critical hub for the Iranian oil industry, according to Iran's Mehr news agency, although US media said the attacks were against military targets.

Earlier in the day a series of explosions was heard across Tehran, and Iranian media reported that 18 people, including two children, were killed in strikes in neighbouring Alborz province.

Overnight, attacks on Saudi Arabia hit a petrochemical complex in a sprawling industrial area in the eastern city of Jubail, a witness who requested anonymity told AFP, hours after similar installations in Iran were struck.

Loud explosions were also heard late Tuesday in central Baghdad where the US embassy is located.

Iran has responded to the war by striking Gulf Arab states that host US troops. Israel in turn has launched a major offensive into Lebanon, vowing to control land from which Iranian-linked Hezbollah has fired rockets.

The Israeli invasion into Lebanon has killed more than 1,500 people, according to authorities.

Israel on Tuesday issued a warning to all vessels in the maritime zone off Lebanon's south to head immediately north of the city of Tyre, warning that it would operate in the area.

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(The Center Square) – Small businesses in the United States have yet to feel the benefits of the Trump administration’s new tax legislation, according to a new report from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

The chamber released its Small Business Index report on Tuesday, which found inflation as a top concern for business owners across the country as the U.S. continues its conflict with Iran and the uncertainty over tariff policies continue.

The chamber conducted its survey from Feb. 25 to March 11, near the beginning of U.S. military strikes against Iran that have continued for more than one month. Tom Sullivan, senior vice president of small business policy at the chamber, said he hoped the small business economy would be doing better than the report revealed.

The report showed, in quarter one of 2026, 16% of businesses reported increasing their staff over the past year, down from 23% in quarter four of 2025. Similarly, 37% of business owners planned to increase investments in the next year, a decrease from 44% in quarter four of 2025.

Fewer businesses were comfortable with their overall cash flow, as only 20% said they were “very comfortable” with current cash flows, down from 31% in quarter three of 2025.

“We know that uncertainty is the dark cloud over small businesses,” Sullivan said. “Last quarter of last year we asked the questions in the middle of the government shutdown, this quarter we asked the questions right at the beginning of the military conflict with Iran.”

Sullivan said higher gas prices due to the conflict in Iran has a unique effect on small business owners. He said most owners rely on gas for a large portion of their business operations and can feel the effects of rising prices.

“That price hike is in their face every day, not just as a small business owner, but as a citizen,” Sullivan said. “They’re driving by the gas station that has it flashed in front of them.”

However, Sullivan said he hoped tax policies from the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which was signed into law on July 4, 2025, would help uplift small businesses. He pointed to no tax on overtime, no tax on tips and tax expense programs for advancements in technology.

Sullivan said he talked to business owners in the manufacturing sector who have reported no taxes on overtime to be a great relief.

“A happy employee is a happy small business,” Sullivan said.

Over the last year, tariff policies in the United States have remained an ever present concern for small business owners, Sullivan said. He said the leaders in the small business community are skeptical that they will receive tariff refunds, which adds to uncertainty.

The report found about 28% of small business owners said the economy is in “good health,” down by 10% from the previous quarter.

“Small business owners are busy running their businesses, they’re not necessarily keyed into Supreme Court decisions,” Sullivan said.

Still, he said uncertainty with tariff plans can cause significant pain for small business owners, especially when they attempt to plan for the future. He pointed to a small business coffee shop owner in Minnesota who was affected by changing tariff policies on coffee products.

“It’s that uncertainty that has been a wet blanket on small business growth for over a year,” Sullivan said.

The report found 61% of small business owners planned to increase revenue, down from 65% last quarter and 69% in quarter one of 2025. About 19% of owners reported increasing concerns over providing employees with healthcare and other benefits.

Despite the report’s findings of pessimism among small business owners, Sullivan said he is optimistic for the next quarter. He said small businesses should see more refunds from the IRS after the implementation of more friendly tax policies that should help out small businesses.

“I’m optimistic that in this next quarter we’ll see that spend go up based on the changes in tax law,” Sullivan said.

The U.S. Chamber is working with the Trump administration to implement a tariff refund policy framework by April 20.

“We are working with the administration to try to get information into the hands of small business importers,” Sullivan said. “I do not expect that it’s going to result in a giant jump or boost in small business confidence.”