Crime-weary Peru votes for ninth president in a decade

A childhood dream of making video games is becoming a reality this week for Imagine Dragons' singer Dan Reynolds, as his company's debut title "Last Flag" is released Tuesday.

Games had been a passion of Reynolds and his brother and band manager Mac long before the group became a global name.

Now the pair have used some time away from music to build a team-based shooter inspired by the games of Capture the Flag they played in the woods as young Boy Scouts.

"Last Flag" is "not a passion project, (we've) been working on it now for five-plus years," Reynolds told journalists during a virtual news conference.

Their roughly 30-strong studio, Night Street Games, has been working on "Last Flag" since its 2020 founding.

The game sorts players into two teams of five who can battle online, competing to hide their own flag and snatch the opposing team's banner.

"I grew up in a family of eight boys and one girl, and we were all nerdy kids," 38-year-old Dan Reynolds remembered.

Creating their own game had been "this dream that we talked about all the time" as they learned skills such as programming and 3D modelling.

But when Imagine Dragons "just blew up" while they were at university, Dan, a fan of "Starcraft" and "League of Legends", went with the flow, enlisting Mac along the way as manager.

Tracks such as "Believer", "Thunder" and "Radioactive" have made the band one of the most popular pop rock groups worldwide.

It has sold 74 million albums and racked up 160 billion streams, according to record label Warner Music Group.

The band's ride has been "just incredible", Dan said.

"But we talked all the time during that about 'what if?'" the brothers had gone through with their gaming dream, he added.

When the time finally came, they devised a brightly coloured world filled with seventies stylings.

"Last Flag" bears visual similarities to the genre juggernaut "Fortnite", but the Reynolds say their title stands out from the pack with a focus on playing the objective -- not simply eliminating opponents.

Several high-value productions in the team shooter genre have fallen flat in recent years, with titles such as "Concord" or "Highguard" quickly taken offline after failing to win a loyal player base.

"Even though there's a ton of competition, I think we've seen even recently that a new game... can break through if it provides something different," Mac Reynolds said.

kf/tgb/js

China's long-term strategy of diversifying energy sources and building stockpiles is helping it weather disruptions from the Iran war, although some sectors still face major snags, analysts say.

China is a net importer of oil and more than half of its seaborne crude came from the Middle East last year, according to analytics firm Kpler.

The conflict triggered by Israel and the United States against Iran has halted almost all shipments from the Gulf area for six weeks now, with a shaky ceasefire deal struck this week extremely unlikely to lead to an immediate recovery. 

However, Beijing's long-running prioritisation of energy security has left it well-prepared for such shocks, analysts told AFP.

A "general concern about the geopolitical situation" in recent years has spurred Chinese leaders to ensure sufficient storage construction and stockpiling of strategic reserves, said Muyu Xu, senior oil analyst at Kpler.

Those efforts mean China now sits in a far better position than several of its Asian neighbours, such as Japan and the Philippines, she said.

But so far Beijing has not been "in a rush" to initiate releases from its substantial strategic reserves, said Xu.

- 'Vindicated' -

This is partly because China's decades-long mission to diminish its traditional reliance on coal and fossil fuels is beginning to flourish.

The large-scale efforts to transition to renewable energy mean "China is relatively well placed" to deal with the current situation, said Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

Wind, solar and nuclear capacity has been added to China's populous coastal provinces, while improved grid infrastructure carries electricity to them from inland. 

"There would be much more oil and gas imports needed to power those provinces" otherwise, said Myllyvirta.

While dependencies still exist -- including in the vast manufacturing sector -- renewable energy is "helping a lot on the margin", he said.

Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society, told AFP that the current energy crisis "vindicates China's long-standing 'all-of-the-above' strategy".

President Xi Jinping is seeking to leverage the renewables build-out even further as geopolitical turmoil mounts.

State broadcaster CCTV aired a segment on Monday in which Xi was quoted as calling for accelerated construction of a "new energy system" to safeguard energy security, although it did not mention the Middle East war.

- 'Teapot' trouble brewing -

For Beijing, the "more serious risk" is not immediate energy shocks but a potential global economic downturn caused by the conflict, the Asia Society's Li said.

Some sectors will inevitably feel the pinch, presenting new hurdles for leaders struggling to jumpstart sluggish activity.

Among them are "teapot" oil refineries -- small, private outfits that have historically benefited from access to sanctioned Iranian and Venezuelan crude acquired at a discount.

The loss of Iranian crude could be a death knell for many of these operations, which are mainly concentrated in the eastern province of Shandong and are already reeling from Washington's military intervention in Venezuela this year.

Beijing likely has "mixed feelings" about that, Kpler's Xu told AFP.

On the one hand, teapots account for around one-fifth of China's refining capacity, also providing substantial employment, she said.

However, their lax environmental standards, less predictable tax generation and competition with state-owned giants means that their shutting down is "not entirely bad news for China", said Xu.

Chipmaking, which Xi has declared a strategic priority, is another sector likely to encounter challenges as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut.

Qatar is one of the world's few large-scale producers of helium -- vital for semiconductor manufacturing -- and supplies have ground to a halt since the war began.

The chemicals industry could also face "significant pressure" from the disruption, Michal Meidan from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies wrote in a recent report.

On a national level though, she said, "the impacts can be smoothed out".

"While the economy will not be immune to higher prices and reduced economic activity, stakeholders are already taking pre-emptive measures in case the disruption is protracted," she wrote. 

pfc/reb/ane/pbt

Hungarians will vote on Sunday in closely watched parliamentary elections that could end nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban's 16-year stint in power as a self-described "thorn" in the EU's side.

US President Donald Trump has thrown his weight behind the EU's current longest-serving leader, who maintains close ties to Russia. The vote is closely followed abroad, particularly across the rest of Europe.

Opinion polls suggest that the party of pro-European conservative Peter Magyar -- who has promised a "system change" -- is running well ahead of that of Orban.

Both camps have made allegations of foreign interference during the campaign in the central European country of 9.5 million people. US Vice President JD Vance visited Budapest earlier this week to rally with Orban.

Vance attacked the alleged interference in Hungary of "Brussels bureaucrats", and Trump has promised to bring US "economic might" to Hungary if the party of Orban, a "truly strong and powerful leader", secures victory.

Orban, 62, who is seeking a fifth straight term, has transformed his country into a model of illiberal democracy, following Trump in casting migration and "woke" values as a "civilisational" threat.

Former government insider Magyar, 45, burst into the scene just two years ago, amassing support against the backdrop of economic stagnation, despite an electoral system skewed in favour of Orban's Fidesz party.

- 'New era' -

"This is a pivotal election. If Fidesz wins now, that will clearly mean... a shift towards authoritarianism," Andrea Szabo, a senior research fellow at ELTE University's Centre for Social Sciences, told AFP. 

"This is the last moment in which this process can be halted, and the pendulum can swing back in a democratic direction," she added.

Orban has increasingly locked horns with Brussels, which accuses him of quashing dissent and eroding the rule of law, and has frozen billions of euros in funding.

"Most member states would be quite happy to be rid of Orban," one European diplomat told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity. "The patience has worn very thin.

Criss-crossing the country since February, Magyar has called on Hungarians to "take our homeland back" to confirm its place in the EU and promised to crack down on corruption and offer better services.

Hungary is seen as the most corrupt in the EU, together with Bulgaria, according to Transparency International.

"I think it's important that there really be a new era, a new, liveable Hungary," Daniel Pasztor, a pensioner, 60, told AFP at a Magyar rally in Miskolc city in northeastern Hungary on Friday.

Orban, in turn, in his rallies has warned to "not put everything at risk" and to "protect what we have achieved".

"It would be really bad for Hungary if (Magyar's party) Tisza win," said Attila Szoke, a 55-year-old taxi driver, at an Orban rally in Hungary's second largest city Debrecen this week.

Orban has focused on making Ukraine the centre topic of his campaign, portraying the neighbouring country, which is fighting off a Russian invasion, as "hostile" to Hungary.

He has also vowed to continue his crackdown against "fake civil society organisations, bought journalists, judges (and) politicians".

"Fidesz decided to run a purely negative campaign... What they talked about was war, war, war" sociologist Szabo said.

- Interference -

Polls open at 6:00 am local time (0400 GMT) and will close at 7:00 pm.

Analysts expect a record turnout of around 75 percent, exceeding the previous record of just over 70 percent.

Only five parties will be listed -- the fewest since Hungary's democratisation in 1990 -- after several stood down to bolster Tisza's chances.

The first preliminary results are expected soon after polls close, but if the race is close the winner might not be declared until ballot counting is completely finished next Saturday, according to the National Election Office.

While the opposition fears Orban may not recognise the election results, the nationalist leader has accused the opposition of "an organised attempt to use chaos" and "colluding" with foreign intelligence.

In the lead up to the vote, a flurry of accusations, counter-accusations and leaks surfaced, including recorded phone conversations causing EU-wide alarm about Orban's and his foreign minister's close relations with Moscow.

Several whistleblowers from police, military and other state authorities have also come forward to publicly accuse Orban's government of incompetence and influencing state institutions for political gain.

Reports have claimed an ongoing covert Russian disinformation campaign to help Orban stay in power, while a documentary has alleged his ruling coalition is engaging in massive vote-buying efforts in rural districts.

bur-pmu-ros/jza/jj/tc

Filipinos like their "pares", a traditional beef stew, served hot -- but the soaring cost of liquefied petroleum gas has made that prospect increasingly difficult since war erupted in the Middle East.

To save a few pesos 20-year-old Eric Garcia delicately turned a knob to adjust the flame under his warming trays to the lowest setting as he grapples with fuel costs that have nearly doubled in price.

While sticker shock at petrol stations has garnered the biggest headlines since the war forced the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the rising price of LPG has hit the import-dependent archipelago's humble street food vendors.

A day before speaking to AFP, Garcia said he had been forced to raise the price of a bowl of pares to 65 pesos ($1.08) after fuel costs reduced his daily earnings by a quarter.

"I'm only earning 1,500 pesos (per day), because the rest is spent on LPG," he said.

Garcia, who begins cooking at 3 am every morning before hauling his stew to a middle-class neighbourhood on a converted motorbike, said an 11 kilo tank of fuel, which typically lasts four days, that once cost 870 pesos (about $14.50) now costs 1,600 pesos.

"It's the highest price of LPG that I've ever seen since I started here," said Carlo Manalad, a supervisor at a store selling tanks of the gas, 90 percent of which is imported.

"If (our suppliers') prices are high, we also raise our prices. Our profit is still the same," the 64-year-old told AFP.

Many of the capital's streetside food sellers, however, have no such luxury.

"If we raise our prices, our customers will buy from other stalls," said Ronilo Titom, who has run a curbside canteen that caters call centre workers and jeepney drivers, for two years.

Even while holding the line on prices, Titom said he had noticed his customer base slowly shrinking since the war erupted.

"Many of them have started to bring packed lunches instead (to save money)," said the 48-year-old who, like Garcia, is using his LPG ever more judiciously.

"Sometimes we let the soup get cold," he admitted, noting that the cost of ingredients for his dishes had also been on the uptick since the war broke out.  

- 'Very difficult for us' -

The Philippines revealed Tuesday war-driven inflation figures that showed food prices had increased nearly twice as fast in March as the month before.

French fry vendor John Mark Abella, 25, who has also upped his prices by five pesos to compensate for LPG costs, told AFP he believed inflation was putting the squeeze on his mostly student customers.

"I think we've got fewer customers … because they're limiting their expenses because of the high prices of fuel and food," he said.

Sam Natividad, a 25-year-old call centre worker, said that was no illusion.

"I'm limiting my expenses because... I also have to pay bills at home. I don't have a big budget for my meals here," she told AFP at a roadside canteen, adding it was "understandable" if street vendors had to raise their prices.

Near Garcia's pares stall, Allan Palong, a driver for a motorbike ride-hailing app, said he understood the vendor's need to charge five pesos more for a bowl of stew, even if his own earnings were being crippled by fuel price hikes.

"It's very difficult for us now, all prices have gone up … the five-pesos mean a lot," he said, while calling on the government to slash the excise tax on imported fuel.

"What they're doing is not enough... we can't feel it."

pam-cwl/ane/tc

A federal appeals court has ruled US President Donald Trump's $400 million White House ballroom renovation can proceed, albeit temporarily, and called for a district judge to clarify national security-related questions.

The project aims to construct a massive ballroom on the site of the White House's East Wing -- previously best known for housing the First Lady's offices. It was demolished in September. 

A three-judge panel of the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit ruled 2-1 to give the administration until April 17 to continue working on the project and "seek Supreme Court review," in the court order released Saturday.

The order also calls on the federal district court Judge Richard Leon to clarify questions on White House safety and security raised in earlier proceedings.

Last month, Leon ordered a halt to construction, saying Trump needed congressional approval for the project.

Leon wrote in that order that Trump is a "steward" of the White House, adding: "He is not, however, the owner!"

The lawsuit against the renovation was brought by the National Trust for Historic Preservation in the United States.

sla/aks

Peru votes on Sunday to elect its ninth president in a decade, with crime-weary voters seemingly poised to extend the tide of conservative governments sweeping Latin America. 

From the Amazon to the Andes, about 27 million Peruvians are obliged to vote in a race that features a media baron, an autocrat's daughter, and a hardline ex-mayor who likens himself to a cartoon pig. 

"I wouldn't vote for anyone. I'm so disappointed with everyone in power," clothing merchant Maria Fernandez, 56, told AFP. 

"We've been governed by nothing but corrupt, thieving scoundrels."

Voters will mark ballots that are almost half a meter long and feature a head-scratching 35 presidential candidates. 

Hours before polls open, many voters are still undecided and unconvinced. 

Pre-election surveys show no candidate polling above 15 percent, far short of the 50 percent needed to win outright. Barring an upset, a June runoff seems all but certain. 

Conservative candidates dominate -- according to pollsters at Ipsos there is just one leftist in the top five, former trade and tourism minister Roberto Sanchez.

Right-wing candidates have tried to outdo each other with extreme promises to kill hitmen and lock up delinquents in snake-ringed jungle jails. 

In the last decade, Peru's homicide rate has more than doubled.

And the number of extortion cases reported to Peruvian police jumped more than eightfold from 3,200 to 26,500 a year -- and that is unlikely to be the full total.

- Familiar name -

On the eve of the vote, frontrunner Keiko Fujimori told AFP that she would "restore order" in her first 100 days and would forge a united front with recently elected conservative leaders in Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, and Bolivia. 

"We will ask for special powers -- powers to modernise police stations, and powers for the Armed Forces to help us control the prisons," she told AFP in Lima. 

"The Armed Forces will participate alongside the National Police in controlling the borders. We will expel undocumented citizens," she said, echoing hardline policies that are gaining political traction across the Americas.

This is Fujimori's fourth tilt at the presidency. In previous campaigns, she has distanced herself slightly from the legacy of her father, former Peruvian president Alberto Fujimori.

His government crushed a bloody leftist insurgency in the 1990s. 

Courts found that he had directed death squads and was guilty of crimes against humanity, bribery, and embezzlement. He spent 16 years in jail.

This time round, Fujimori junior has capitalized on growing nostalgia for her father's strongman leadership. 

"I believe that time and history are giving my father the place he deserves," she said. 

Signalling plans to forge close relations with US President Donald Trump, Fujimori said, "my role, if elected president, will be to encourage the United States to once again participate more actively." 

She faces a challenge from former Lima mayor Ricardo Belmont, 80, who, despite having run the capital for five years, has pitched himself as an outsider. 

He has made a late surge in the polls thanks to a large TikTok following. 

"He's collecting votes from left to right, like Pac‑Man," said Patricia Zarate of the Institute of Peruvian Studies. 

Also in the running is TV comedian Carlos Alvarez and Rafael Lopez Aliaga, a far-right ex-Lima mayor who has promised to "hunt" Venezuelans and refers to himself as "Porky".

Sociologist David Sulmont told AFP the elections show "a major disconnect" between the public and what politicians are offering. 

Incumbent Jose Maria Balcazar, interim president for less than two months, is barred from running. 

Polls open at 7:00am local time (noon GMT) at 5:00pm (2200 GMT) Church bells will ring, signaling the polls are closed and some religious sites will reopen. 

The election will also decide the makeup of Peru's congress, which has been instrumental in removing several leaders from office.

arb/aks

Inter Miami's hopes of securing a first victory at their new Nu Stadium were frustrated once more on Saturday after Red Bull New York came from behind to snatch a 2-2 draw.

A week after Lionel Messi and Miami were held to the same score by Austin FC in their opening game at their new home, New York's youthful line-up became the latest side to get a result at the same venue.

New York quieted the home crowd after just 15 minutes, when superb work from 18-year-old striker Julian Hall down the right stretched the Miami defence.

Hall dragged away two defenders before squaring for an unmarked Jorge Ruvalcalba who swept a low finish beneath Miami goalkeeper Dayne St. Clair.

But Miami drew level on the stroke of half-time when Argentine forward Matero Silvetti finished from close range from Rodrigo De Paul's cross.

Miami looked to be taking control after half time, and defender Maxi Falcon should have made it 2-1 but sent a free header wide of the post from De Paul's corner.

Messi and Silvetti both had chances go begging before Miami took the lead on 55 minutes through Argentine-born Mexico international forward German Berterame.

Berterame collected a pass which deflected off New York's 17-year-old midfielder Adri Mehmeti and shot low to make it 2-1.

New York thought they had equalized midway through the half when Robert Voloder bundled in a low finish only for the goal to be ruled out for offside after a VAR review.

The New York equalizer finally arrived in the 77th minute, when a twisting turning run inside the area from Hall tormented the Miami defence before he squared to fellow teenager Mehmeti, who slid to finish for 2-2.

Miami pressed furiously in the closing stages, and only a sensational diving save by Ethan Horvath prevented Messi from snatching a winner with a free kick in stoppage time.

The draw leaves Miami in third place in the Eastern Conference standings, four points behind leaders Nashville, 2-1 winners over Charlotte on Saturday.

rcw/bb

US Vice President JD Vance said Sunday that talks with Iran failed to reach an agreement, saying he was leaving after putting forward a "final and best offer".

Vance signalled that he was still giving time to Iran to consider the offer from the United States, which on Tuesday said it would pause attacks with Israel for two weeks pending negotiations.

"We leave here with a very simple proposal, a method of understanding that is our final and best offer. We'll see if the Iranians accept it," Vance told reporters after 21 hours of talks in the Pakistani capital Islamabad.

Vance said that the core dispute was on nuclear weapons. Iran insists it is not pursuing an atomic bomb, and the United States and Israel bombed sensitive Iranian sites both in the war launched on February 28 as well as last year.

"The simple fact is that we need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon," Vance said.

"The simple question is, do we see a fundamental commitment of will for the Iranians not to develop a nuclear weapon -- not just now, not just two years from now, but for the long term?

"We haven't seen that yet. We hope that we will."

sct/sla

AI industry insiders want workers to code smarter, think harder and lean into their humanity -- but still dodge the question of how many jobs artificial intelligence will destroy.

The reassurance rang out across HumanX, a four-day conference drawing some 6,500 investors, entrepreneurs and tech executives, even as a blunt advertisement at the entrance set the tone: "Stop hiring humans."

On the main stage, May Habib, chief executive of an AI platform called Writer, told the audience that Fortune 500 bosses are having a "collective panic attack" on the subject.

The anxiety is well-founded. More and more companies are directly citing AI in announcing job cuts.

High-profile examples are on the rise: Salesforce laid off 4,000 customer support workers, saying AI now handles 50 percent of its work.

Block chief Jack Dorsey announced plans to cut the company's headcount nearly in half, citing "intelligence tools" that have fundamentally changed how companies operate.

Not all claims have gone uncontested -- some economists say firms are pointing to AI to rationalize layoffs that are really about past overhiring or cost-cutting ahead of massive infrastructure investments.

OpenAI's Sam Altman has spoken of "AI-washing," and most speakers at the San Francisco event similarly dismissed the invocation of AI as a false pretext for job cuts -- even as they freely predicted disruption was just around the corner.

AI is going to "transform every single company, every single job, every single way that we do work," said Matt Garman, chief executive of cloud computing giant Amazon Web Services.

- 'Pretty unsettling' -

The debate remains heated. Two years ago, Nvidia chief Jensen Huang declared that the ultimate goal was to make it so "nobody has to program" or code.

"We will look back on that as some of the worst career advice ever given," Andrew Ng, founder of training platform DeepLearning.AI, shot back on Tuesday.

In his view, coding is not an obsolete skill -- AI has simply made it available to more people.

Another argument has taken hold in Silicon Valley: interpersonal skills will become more valuable than ever, with some voices going so far as to tout a humanities education as sound tech career preparation.

"As AI can do more of a job, the things that will distinguish and differentiate a given employee are going to be the human skills -- critical thinking, communication, teamwork," said Greg Hart, chief executive of training platform Coursera, which has seen enrollment in its critical thinking courses triple over the past year.

Florian Douetteau, chief executive of Dataiku, a French company specializing in enterprise AI, agreed. 

The real human added value, he told AFP, is the "capacity for judgment."

He described a world in which an AI agent works through the night, its human counterpart reviews the results in the morning, and then the agent resumes working autonomously during the lunch break.

But the entrepreneur nevertheless expressed unease. 

"We are going to have a generation of people who will never have written anything from start to finish in their entire lives," he said. "That's pretty unsettling."

- 'Mistake was not preparing' -

All of this advice risks ringing hollow for a generation already struggling to land a first job.

AI has automated entry-level tasks that once served as on-the-job training. Hiring of candidates with less than one year of experience fell 50 percent between 2019 and 2024 among America's major tech companies, according to a study by investment fund SignalFire.

"We should be preparing for the loss of knowledge work jobs in a number of categories," warned former US vice president Al Gore.

As the week's lone genuinely dissenting voice, Gore called for a real action plan to map threatened jobs and prepare workers for career transitions, so as not to repeat the mistakes of the globalization era.

"The mistake was not globalization. The mistake was in not preparing for the consequences of globalization," he said, drawing a parallel with the deindustrialization that followed the offshoring wave of the 2000s.

"Maybe we don't want to talk about it," he added, "because it may slow down the enthusiasm for the technology."

bl/arp/pnb/sst

Democrats are growing bullish about a possible "blue wave" in November's US midterm elections, buoyed by eye-catching local votes that suggest a backlash against President Donald Trump may be spreading beyond the party's usual strongholds.

From a staunchly conservative congressional district in Georgia to a mayoral contest in Wisconsin and state legislative races across the South, Democrats have consistently beaten recent benchmarks -- often by double digits. 

Analysts caution that special elections and off‑year contests are imperfect predictors, yet the breadth and consistency of the swings have sharpened Republican anxieties and revived memories of the 2006 and 2018 wave elections. 

"It certainly looks like a blue wave is not only possible, but probable. Democrats continue to overperform and expand their margins," said political analyst Andrew Koneschusky, a former Democratic Senate aide. 

"If the overperformance holds, it could mean Democrats pick up 40 or more House seats in November."

The clearest sign of Democratic gains came this week in Georgia, where a race to fill the House seat vacated by estranged former Trump ally Marjorie Taylor Greene saw the Republican margin cut to 12 points in a district the president carried by 37. 

In Wisconsin, liberal-backed judge Chris Taylor crushed her conservative rival by 20 points in a state supreme court race, while Democrats also won the mayor's office in Waukesha, long a Republican bastion.

- 'Few competitive seats' -

The broader record since Trump's 2024 win has been similarly encouraging for Democrats, who have improved their vote share by an average of 13 points in congressional special elections. 

Democrats have flipped dozens of Republican-held state legislative seats while Republicans have flipped none. 

In the US House of Representatives, Republicans hold a tiny four-seat majority and an election night even modestly favorable to Democrats would likely flip the chamber.

The overperformance now showing up nationwide points to much larger gains -- along the lines of Koneschusky's estimate, or perhaps the 2006 cycle, when the Iraq war soured voters on Republicans and helped Democrats gain 31 seats. 

Democratics argue that Trump has saddled his party with a similarly unpopular conflict in the Middle East, exposing it to the political cost of higher gas prices, economic unease and another foreign entanglement many voters never wanted.

"There will be a blue wave, but not powerful enough to surf on," said political analyst Donald Nieman, who predicted a Democratic majority in the House of around 10 seats. 

"That's because American politics remain polarized, most voters have picked sides, and there are so few competitive seats -- in fact, only about 60."

The Senate remains a harder target but no longer looks fanciful to Democrats. 

They need four seats to win back the chamber, and party leaders have highlighted North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Alaska as the most plausible path. 

- 'Vision' -

For Trump, losing Congress would carry heavy consequences. 

A Democratic legislature could slam the brakes on much of his domestic agenda and complicate efforts to fund or sustain foreign conflicts, including through war powers votes or resistance to large spending packages. 

It would also regain subpoena power, opening the door to corruption investigations, scrutiny of administration conduct and aggressive oversight.

Still, Washington watchers are not treating a Democratic wave as guaranteed. 

Special elections can be imperfect predictors, Republicans continue to enjoy fundraising advantages, and several expert voices caution that anti-Trump sentiment is not the same thing as a broad embrace of Democrats.

Party strategist Caroline Welles, who works to elect first-time Democratic women to state legislatures, said the 13-point swing from 2024 margins across special elections is "reason for us to feel bullish." 

"However, it's important to note that the midterms are over six months away," she added, "and the landscape could totally change by then."

Aaron Cutler, a former House staffer and congressional lobbyist at law firm Hogan Lovells, went as far as suggesting that Republicans could defy historic trends to win the midterms. 

"I also don't think there is a unified Democrat message right now besides 'not them,'" he said. "It's important to sell a vision to the American people." 

ft/ksb