Cook Political Report: 18 more House races move left

Four Republican incumbents in the U.S. House whose races were previously classified as a toss-up shifted to lean Democrat. Four additional Republican seats that previously leaned Republican also shifted to a toss-up.

“The most likely outcome at this point is that Democrats flip a net of nine to 19 seats, resulting in Democrats holding 224 to 234 seats in 2027,” the analysis states of U.S. House races. “At this point, Democrats only need to win 20% of the toss ups to get to a majority, assuming the seats that favor Democrats in our ratings all break that way.”

The 18 races span the country from Nevada to New York. 

These races are in addition to 15 Cook identified as previously shifting left, including six key races in Texas and Florida, The Center Square reported.

Democrats are favored to win races in NE-02, NV-03, NY-03 and NY-04, according to the analysis. Three of the seats are held by Democrat incumbents.

In five races with four incumbent Republicans, the races shifted from toss-up to leans Democrat. In these races, Cook predicts incumbent Republicans Mariannette Miller-Meeks, IA-01, Zach Nunn, IA-03, Ryan Mackenzie, PA-07, Scott Perry, PA-10, will lose.

Cook also shifted four races that previously leaned Republican as now being a toss-up, including an open seat, CD-02, in Iowa. Incumbent Republicans in trouble in these races include Bill Huizenga, MI-04, and Rob Wittman, VA-01. Incumbent Democrat Don Davis, NC-01, is also in trouble, according to the analysis.

Two open seats – KY-06 and ME-02 – and incumbent Republican Brian Fizpatrick, PA_01, lean Republican. As do the races of incumbent Republicans French Hill, AR-02, and Victoria Spartz, IN-05. 

This is in addition to an analysis released two weeks ago pointing to Republican candidates in trouble in Texas congressional districts 15, 35 and 9 and in Florida’s 22, 27 and 13.

Other U.S. House races Cook identifies as shifting left include NC-11 (toss up), NJ-7 (lean D), and AZ-1 (lean D). 

It also downgraded six races, three from likely Republican to leaning Republican (CO-5, MT-1, WI-1) and three from solid Republican to likely Republican (NV-2, VA-5 and NY-21), The Center Square reported.

Cook also shifted left several U.S. Senate seats. In this analysis, it says, “At this point, the question isn’t whether Democrats will gain seats, but how many.”

It’s revised its estimate of potential pickups from two to six seats. Democrats need four to win a majority.

It also moved three Senate ratings left. The Kansas Senate race is now a toss-up. New Hampshire’s race now leans Democrat and North Carolina’s race now leans likely Democrat.

“Republicans are still hopeful about picking up a seat in Michigan and holding one in Maine, which could limit Democrats’ gains and narrowly protect the GOP’s majority. But the momentum nationally remains against the president’s party, with less than a month for them to right the ship,” it says. 

A New York Times/Siena poll has the U.S. Senate race in Kansas tied between incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton.

In New Hampshire, surveys show that Democrat Rep. Chris Pappas has opened up a lead on former Sen. John Sununu. 

In North Carolina, former Democrat Gov. Roy Cooper is leading Republican Michael Whatley. 

The reason why Republicans are faring so poorly nationwide, the analysis notes, is a backlash among voters against Trump administration policies. These include Trump tariffs and the conflict with Iran that have led to higher costs of living, increased gas prices and fertilizer shortages. In rural, agricultural districts, voters point to high fuel costs and fertilizer prices and the administration prioritizing importing beef from Argentina instead of helping American ranchers.